The Daily Overlay: Cy Young Thief

by
September 4, 2020

We have a 9 game slate on DraftKings for Friday! Don’t forget to check your lineups before lock.

 

AGENDA
1. The Daily Overlay DK Contest
2. Casual Weather
3. Favorite Stacks
4. Favorite Hitting Plays
5. Favorite Pitching Plays

1. The Daily Overlay DK Contest
Join our contest running on Tuesday’s and Friday’s all season long! Take the money of Justin Mason, Paul Sporer and other fantasy analysts in this fun contest! Next season we will make a DFS League if there is interest.

Join the Daily Overlay’s Draftkings contest here:
https://www.draftkings.com/contest/draftteam/91022969

 

2. Casual Weather
SD at OAK- 5% chance of rain at game time, but it should be fine.

AZ at SF- 10% chance of rain at game time, but it should be fine.

 

3. Favorite Stacks
Phillies vs Rick Porcello– Porcello has been awful and it is just a matter of time before he starts giving up bombs as well.

Mets vs Jake Arrieta– Arrieta gives up a ton of hard contact, his xERA is in the bottom 10% of the league, and while he doesn’t give up a ton of fly balls, when he does, they go over the fence.

White Sox vs Brady Singer– Singer has already given up eight bombs in 34.2 innings and he is seeing the White Sox for the second time in a week.

Giants vs Taylor Clarke– Clarke shut down the Giants in his last start, but now it is in SF which is playing like a hitters park since the changes to the stadium.

 

4. Favorite Hitting Plays
Catcher (Expensive): J.T. Realmuto at NYM
Catcher (Punt/Value): Carson Kelly at SF- It has been a rough year for Kelly, but he has a career .375 wOBA versus left-handed pitching and San Francisco is playing much more hitter friendly since the changes to their park this year. Also consider Victor Caratini, Anthony Bemboom, and Cam Gallagher.

1B (Expensive): Rhys Hoskins at NYM
1B (Punt/Value): Jose Marmolejos vs TEX- This is a punt play for sure, but Marmolejos has also put up 15+ points in three of his last six games and at $2,100 it is worth the gamble. Also consider Edwin Rios and Wilmer Flores

2B (Expensive): Robinson Cano vs PHI
2B (Punt/Value): Nick Solak vs SEA. Solak has been hitting in the middle or top of the lineup and has hit .302 off of lefties this year. Also consider Wilmer Flores, Gavin Lux, Jeff McNeil, and Shed Long

3B (Expensive): Anthony Rendon vs HOU
3B (Punt/Value): Alec Bohm at NYM. Bohm is quietly hitting .317 since his callup and it is a nice matchup with Cy Young Thief Rick Porcello. Also consider Abraham Toro, Todd Frazier, Evan Longoria, and Eduardo Escobar.

SS (Expensive): Tim Anderson at KC.
SS (Punt/Value): Elvis Andrus vs SEA- Andrus is a career .283 hitter versus lefties and is super cheap. Also consider Andrelton Simmons.

OF (Expensive): Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Mookie Betts, Michael Yastrzemski, Whit Merrifield, Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert, Michael Conforto.
OF (Punt/Value): Alex Dickerson, Andrew McCutchen, Jeff McNeil, Jay Bruce, Kevin Pillar, Jo Adell, Jose Marmolejos, Jorge Mateo, Roman Quinn.

 

5. Favorite Pitching Plays
Cash Games: Yu Darvish, Carlos Carrasco, Jack Flaherty

Tournament: Yu Darvish, Carlos Carrasco, Jack Flaherty, Zach Davies, Lance McCullers, Corbin Burnes, Yusei Kikuchi, Dane Dunning, Tyler Anderson

Contrarian Plays: Antonio Senzatela, Dylan Bundy, Jesus Luzardo

 

The Daily Overlay will be running Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday this season, so stay tuned for more DFS content next week.





 

Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as other periodic articles. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, and the owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.

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Sonny Lmember
3 years ago

At the risk of losing my FanGraphs membership I don’t believe Porcello’s 2016 Cy was egregious. His ERA+ was slightly better than JV’s and while predictive stats show Porcello was less likely to repeat his results (no spoilers, he hasn’t) the earned outcomes of his starts still matters. He was close enough in most statistical markers (depending on your flavor of WAR) to be a consensus top 3 with JV and Kluber.

Fluky? Yes.
Undeserved? No, not really

5
averagejoe15
3 years ago
Reply to  Sonny L

I think the voting itself was just a mess and that’s the real source of the issue. Verlander’s slight (fWAR) and not so slight (bWAR) advantage didn’t make Porcello’s win unconscionable, though others will disagree.
Note: At the time the bWAR discrepancy was essentially 100% tied to team defense. Also the WAR numbers have changed since the voting in 2016 and actually give Verlander a bigger edge than he had at the time. I’m assuming it’s attributable to the new framing component of both flavors of WAR.

Porcello was 1 (8) or 2 (18) on 26 ballots while Verlander was only 1 (14) or 2 (2) on 16 and left off 2 ballots entirely.

I think it had more to do with who the voters were than who the players were and the lack of a true standout. Many of the voters had a clear preference for old school credentials – Playoff team, Wins, ERA, Saves, etc. Kluber had more wins than JV and did it for a division winner while Britton had that 0.54 ERA while leading the league is saves, also for a playoff team. Other than Porcello those 2 took a lot of votes away from JV.

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Sonny Lmember
3 years ago
Reply to  averagejoe15

Have to admit I had completely forgotten about the voting drama but seeing it here brought all of it back, thank you.

I wonder too how much of JV getting his 2nd Cy last year kind of smooths over this imbalance in his legacy. He has undoubtably been a pitcher who performed at the level of “multiple Cy Young winner” whether he had actually won more than once, but there is a big difference in the way we remember players a generation or two out if they’ve won MVP or Cy multiple times. Now that he has that second trophy, maybe at the expense of Cole’s 1st, 2016 will be seen less as a slight and more as evidence of enduring excellence.

0
bluerum29
3 years ago
Reply to  Sonny L

I would completely agree with your idea that it may have been fluky, but not undeserved. He hasn’t been able to repeat the performance, but for that season, he earned the CY, especially when compared to Verlander.

0