The Daily Grind: Wonkiness

Today’s pitching slate is wonky to the third degree. Wonktastic. Wonkitronic. Wonkhemian Rhapsody.


  1. TDG Invitational
  2. Weather Reports
  3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
  4. SaberSim Says…

1.The Daily Grind Invitational

A heavy Dodgers stack was sufficient to provide sjm26b with an easy victory. Congrats and Leaderboard.

We have a jam-packed Tuesday night slate on our hands. See you at FantasyDraft.

If you have not signed up for FantasyDraft, please use this referral link for tracking purposes. If I understand properly, by using the referral, you will receive a 10 percent return on any rakes you pay.

2. Weather Reports

Keep an eye on Baltimore and Cleveland. They’ll probably be fine. There’s around a 30 percent chance for rain at both venues.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

I truly don’t understand what’s going on with Lance Lynn. I’ve definitely lost money on him this year with my refusal to buy in at lofty prices. Today he costs $21,300 opposite a weakened Diamondbacks lineup. Even in this setting, I only have him as something like six innings, five strikeouts, and four runs allowed. That’s somewhere around 15 points. The win bonus is well within reach. In a normal slate of pitchers, I’d continue to avoid Lynn. This is not a normal slate.

Walker Buehler ($19,700) will have to contend with a not-bad Phillies offense and a bandbox ballpark. The latter is the larger concern. This also seems to be completely priced in. A win is very likely – perhaps as high as 60 percent which is borderline unheard of.

And here is where things get wonky. The third priciest pitcher is Jordan Yamamoto ($18,600). He’s hosting seventh-ranked (by price) Logan Allen ($17,500). While the Marlins and Padres (when facing RHP) are bad offenses, I’m so thoroughly out on these two. Yamamoto is overpriced by $4,500. Allen is overpriced by $6,500.

Dylan Cease ($18,000) is tempting for the electric ceiling, but you have to expect a short outing. The best case scenario is probably something like vintage Lance McCullers. In addition to the usual early-career uncertainty that’s attached to all pitchers, there’s risk he’ll throw fewer than five innings. The Royals, at least, are a friendly matchup.

You really want to use Andrew Heaney ($17,900) against the Astros? Be my guest. As far as I can tell, Collin McHugh ($15,200) is expected to follow Hector Rondon. Don’t quote me on that later if/when the plan changes.

At these prices, I’ll also pass on Anthony DeSclafani ($17,200 at Cubs), CC Sabathia ($17,000 vs Rays), Marco Gonzales ($16,100 at A’s), Bryse Wilson ($16,000 at Brewers), and Andrew Cashner ($15,800 vs Jays). After that, we’re well into scrub territory with few choices left to us.

Two pitchers escaped the purge of the last category. Brandon Woodruff ($17,000) has been marked down for his tough pairing against the Braves. Woodruff is a regular double-digit strikeout candidate. He experiences the occasional roster-ruining meltdown. If you’re somebody who runs a lot of lineups, I’d consider hedging by trying an Atlanta stack or two.

The other guy I like is the continuously disappointing Jack Flaherty. I can’t quite his stuff and strikeout potential. He has a similar profile to Woodruff but with an easier matchup against the Pirates and a more affordable $14,500 cost.

If you must go deep bargain diving, I can’t justify using anybody cheaper than Zach Plesac. He’s hosting the crapnugget Tigers for a cost of $13,500.

It’s also Jalen Beeks ($15,500) day, but he’s too expensive.

Favorite Plays: Lynn, Buehler, Woodruff, Flaherty

Stack Targets: Alex Young, Beeks, Ryan Carpenter, Drew Pomeranz, Peter Lambert, Asher Wojciechowski, Vince Velasquez, Steven Matz, Alec Mills, Dario Agrazal, Jacob Waguespack, Austin Voth, Daniel Mengden, Wilson, Allen

Yes, there is no shortage of chaff tonight. Indeed, there are so many scrubs that victory in large GPPs likely depends upon identifying the ones who actually toss decent outings. Pitcher ownership will be very concentrated.

4. SaberSim Says…

Woodruff, Buehler, Lynn, Flaherty, and Yamamoto are the Sim’s preferred arms. Flaherty, Plesac, Woodruff, Mills, and Buehler are the bargain plays. I was kinda hoping our machine friend would see something I missed…

Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, Peter Alonso, Charlie Blackmon, and Anthony Rendon are the premium bats. Max Stassi, Michael Conforto, Tyler White, Alonso, and Guillermo Heredia comprise the values. What’s going on with Alonso’s price?

5. …

James Paxton perhaps should have had more respect for Travis d’Arnaud. Before anybody rushes out to roster d’Arnaud, it should be noted these are defensive swings on cookie pitches. He needed a juiced baseball AND Yankee Stadium for those three to leave the yard.

These were NOT defensive swings. Might be time to snag some more Mercado shares.

That’s one of the prettiest dives of the season.

We hoped you liked reading The Daily Grind: Wonkiness by Brad Johnson!

Please support FanGraphs by becoming a member. We publish thousands of articles a year, host multiple podcasts, and have an ever growing database of baseball stats.

FanGraphs does not have a paywall. With your membership, we can continue to offer the content you've come to rely on and add to our unique baseball coverage.

Support FanGraphs

You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam

newest oldest most voted

Travis D’Arnaud going 3-3 with 3 homers and 5 rbis to single-handedly beat the Yankees is the pinnacle of, “You can’t predict baseball, Suzyn”.