The Daily Grind: Winter is Still Coming?

It’s friggin’ cold!

AGENDA

  1. TDG Invitational
  2. Weather Reports
  3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
  4. SaberSim Says…
  5. Strategic Implications of a Tri-Ace

1. The Daily Grind Invitational

Due to an out-of-state wedding, our last contest was way back on April 5. Yiddishbdg claimed the gold with help from Nick Pivetta and a solo-ownership of Yolmer Sanchez’s big day. Overall, it was a low scoring affair. Here’s the leaderboard.

I have some bad news about the much ballyhooed freeroll – it’s stuck in legal*. Perhaps indefinitely. I’ll be working on other alternatives. For now, we’ll do (at least) one more week on DraftKings. Same rules as always.

PS – New users who deposit with my referral link get $20 bonus cash. I also get $20. It’s a win-win.

*Back when I held an actual job, “stuck in legal” was our catchall for delaying a deal for any reason. Often, we just wanted to find out if they were more desperate than us.

2. Weather Reports

The Baltimore/Washington D.C. metro area could receive some rain late in the day. It’s a low risk for now. Chicago (both), Cleveland, and Minnesota have sub-40 degree temperatures. Another five venues are below 50 degrees. This affects hitter power and pitcher finesse. Guys with fastball heavy repertoires should benefit.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Main Slate: Ten of the 13 games to be played today are a part of the night slate. Let’s just focus our attention there. Unfortunately, we lose access to a couple aces. Max Scherzer, Noah Syndergaard, and Justin Verlander are still more than enough – they all cost $11,700 or higher. Good luck working around them. I have more to say on the topic in section 5.

Zack Godley ($9,800) is an easy alt-ace at AT&T Park. Who fears Giants? They remain a low strikeout opponent which hurts DFS upside.

Beyond the aces, the options are diverse. Jon Gray ($7,900) has a nice matchup against the Padres… at Coors Field. It’s usable. Really. J.A. Happ ($8,500) is visiting Dylan Bundy ($8,100) at chilly Camden Yards. Either side of that could work. Happ even pitches deep into his outings on occasion.

Miles Mikolas ($7,300) is hosting Jhoulys Chacin ($6,300) at a pitcher friendly venue. I like ’em both. Jakob Junis ($7,000) is at home against a beatable Mariners team. Garrett Richards ($6,700) has double digit strikeout ability – if he doesn’t flame out. Ben Lively ($6,800) is opposed by the worst pitcher in the slate. I smell an easy win. As a (basically) fastball-only pitcher, Lance Lynn ($6,600) should enjoy the cold weather. Even against the Astros. Even Marco Gonzales ($6,200) and Doug Fister ($6,000) are worthy of consideration. Whew…

Stack Targets: Cody Reed, Julio Teheran, Lively, Jose Urena, Fister, Gonzales, Chacin

Barring an unreported surge in talent, Reed is one of the worst pitchers in the majors. No command and middling stuff. Teheran’s looked terrible this season. Urena tossed a gem against the Red Sox after an Opening Day parade of hit batsmen. I’m tempted to use him in some fantasy leagues. But not DFS.

4. SaberSim Says…

Scherzer, Syndergaard, Verlander, Gray, and Lively are the top rated pitchers. The projection is definitely massively overestimating Lively’s innings pitched. It’s calling for 6.2 frames. That’s his absolute upside, not a mean/median. Gray and Richards are my favorites from the value list.

Nolan Arenado, Mike Trout, Rhys Hoskins, Charlie Blackmon (hurt), and Bryce Harper hold the top projections. A bunch of scrubs plus Scott Kingery, Brandon Belt, and Dexter Fowler are among the top values.

5. Strategic Implications of a Tri-Ace

With three aces in the pool, how should we optimize our rosters for a GPP? We can generalize three main strategies:

  1. Use 2 aces and scrub hitters
  2. Use 1 ace, a couple good bats, and scrubs
  3. Use no aces and all good bats

Option 2 will be the most popular. That’s because it’s the high floor, low ceiling play. It’s relatively easy to cash but hard to post a huge point total.

Option 1 is occasionally impossible. It’s also the most financially volatile choice. When you overcome eight scrublord bats while rostering stud pitching, you’re very likely to earn many multiples on your entry. You’ll lose waaay more often than you’ll win. Be careful of overly popular scrubs. If enough people use the same strategy,

Option 3 is sort of like Option 1. Unless you literally pick the top performers, it’s hard to distinguish yourself. The pitchers you choose will be heavily shared with the Option 2 crowd. Your hitters will be among the most popular in the slate. Introducing fades will only worsen a low payout rate in return for slightly better “big win” odds.

The best choice often depends on the specific day. I honestly haven’t decided how I’ll approach today. I like the lesser pitchers AND the scrubbier hitters. The weather plays a big role.





You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam

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Choos on first
5 years ago

These articles are great, love reading them even though they’re more meant for DFS and I play in deep keepers and dynasty formats… The matchup information is just too good to pass on!

I didn’t see him in as a stack or play target, but I’ve got Ivan Nova as one of my four starters going today. Given his rough start, I feel like I probably shouldn’t try playing him against the Cubs today. Should I bench him or play him? The Cubs have a wRC+ of 91 so far.

Choos on first
5 years ago
Reply to  Brad Johnson

Low ceiling high floor is exactly why I picked up Nova to begin with! Thanks Brad!

Metropolitans
5 years ago
Reply to  Brad Johnson

Not anymore – Rained out.