The Daily Grind: Welcome To July

by
July 1, 2019

Self-congratulations to the Colorado A-Team for winning the 2008 World Series. Troy Glaus and Brian Roberts combined to squeeze across the clinching run against Brad Lidge. I joined this Sim league four years ago, prior to their 2005 season. Since then, I’ve been building for this 2008 run. I love it when a plan comes together. The A-Team also overcame a 0-3 game deficit in the Championship Series.

AGENDA

  1. TDG Invitational
  2. Weather Reports
  3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
  4. SaberSim Says…
  5. Disappointment

1.The Daily Grind Invitational

Anibal Sanchez combined with Matt Olson, Alex Verdugo, and Nolan Arenado to provide the bulk of iamlee13’s 172.75 points. Congrats and Leaderboard.

You know the drill, we’re on FantasyDraft for a difficult five-game slate tonight. This is one of those “anything could happen” contests.

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2. Weather Reports

Natch.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Mike Minor ($20,300) costs too much in a matchup against the strikeout-proof Angels at The Glob. It’s proper summer weather in Texas which means the ball will fly. While the price is wrong, Minor is still the best-looking pitcher in this fugly slate. Speaking of bad prices, Jose Suarez ($16,000) is a cool $4,000 overpriced against a volatile Texas offense. I keep recommending targeting southpaws against them due to a high strikeout rate, but the Rangers still score runs between those frequent punch outs.

FDraft doesn’t seem to believe Logan Allen ($17,800) is on the docket tonight. As far as I can tell, he’s one of the most interesting plays thanks to a favorable matchup against the San Fran Gnats. I still expect Allen to ultimately reveal himself to be nothing more than minor league depth – he had a 5.15 ERA at Triple-A. However, I’ll take any ol’ Triple-A fodder against the Giants. Jeff Samardzija ($14,800) might be a value tonight. The Padres have the second-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers. Shark features confusing DFS fundamentals – around a 5.00 ERA projection with a strikeout per inning.

Trevor Williams is probably overpriced for a pairing against the launchtastic Cubs. He’s usually a high floor, low ceiling type which is actually quite attractive in this slate. Of course, anytime a pitcher faces an offense like that of the Cubs, “high floor” flies right out the window. Even at PNC Park. Adbert Alzolay ($12,800) would be the top play if not for two issues. He’s yet to pitch five innings in the majors which jibes with his pitch usage. He’s has max effort, short outing profile. The other problem is a sneakily average Pirates offense. Against righties, they have a 100 wRC+ and a sub-20 percent strikeout rate.

I’ve cashed on a few cheap Tyler Mahle ($14,800) plays this year. He’s experienced a pitch usage breaking. Using him at home against the Brewers strikes me as especially perilous. They’re trying to bait you in with this price which is roughly par value in a small slate with a bunch of too-pricey arms.

It’s Ryan Yarbrough ($13,100) day for the Rays. They’re hosting the Orioles at Tropicana Field. For once, the price seems roughly appropriate for Yarbrough’s three to six innings.

Favorite Plays: Allen, Yarbrough

Stack Targets: Adrian Houser, Jimmy Yacabonis

4. SaberSim Says…

Allen, Minor, Mahle, Williams, and Samardzija are the top five picks. The Sim hasn’t yet shifted from Ryne Stanek to Yarbrough in its projections. Alzolay, Mahle, Allen, Shark, and Williams are the value plays. All five are less of a dollar-for-dollar bargain than the typical fifth-best value.

At least there are some high octane bats to consider like Christian Yelich, Mike Trout, Mike Moustakas, Yasmani Grandal, and Fernando Tatis. It would seem the contrarian play is to use Mahle. Francisco Mejia, Keston Hiura, Tyler Austin, Evan Longoria, and Kyle Schwarber lead the bargains.

5. Disappointment

Manny Machado has really disappointed this season. Also, he has 20 home runs, a pace of 40 over a full season.

Disappointing Bryce Harper is on pace for 30 home runs. Also, check out Jake Arrieta drawing the free base.

Good grief Byron Buxton, stop trying to break your body.





 

You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam

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