The Daily Grind: Week Eight Begins

What is this, week eight? That’s nearly a third of the season behind us. As with other weekend editions, this is just the meat and potatoes. I have home runs to hit today.

AGENDA

1. Weather Reports
2. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
3. Hitters to Use
4. SaberSim Says…

1. Weather Reports

Cincinnati and Minnesota are 30 percent risks for rain and storms. The rest of the league should be free and clear.

2. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Ten games are early, five are late. The second half of the Royals-Twins doubleheader isn’t included in either slate.

Main Slate: Chris Archer is pitching at home where it’s generally been safe to use him. Fifteen of his 22 walks have come on the road even though he has more appearances at home. It’s a weird observation, one that may not mean anything. That said, he does have a career 3.13 ERA at home and a 3.92 ERA on the road.

For the same price, you can also roster Stephen Strasburg. The Nationals second string ace hasn’t pitched beyond the seventh inning this season.

Jake Arrieta’s received a lot of flak. Two of his three bad outings are completely forgivable – at Fenway and at Coors Field. His most recent disaster was the most concerning of the bunch. The Cardinals disassembled him last week. We’ll see how he rebounds against the strikeout and homer happy Brewers.

Danny Salazar is also capable of posting ace-like numbers, although I’m a tad concerned about a matchup against the Astros. He’s a solid GPP play.

If you’re looking for a bargain, change your mind. If you insist, try Jesse Chavez. He’s a decent bet for 30 points versus the mediocre Mets offense. They also make for a pesky opponent. The lineup lacks easy outs. Even the slumpy folk can do damage if you sleep on them.

Stack Targets: Adalberto Mejia, Chad Kuhl, Bronson Arroyo, Tommy Milone, Jaime Garcia, CC Sabathia, Kyle Freeland, Joe Musgrove, Matt Cain, Adam Wainwright, Aaron Nola

Late Slate: The afternoon crew is captained by Yu Darvish at Detroit. His command hasn’t been quite as sharp this year, leading to more walks and fewer strikeouts than desired. Like Strasburg, he’s an ace who rarely pitches deep.

Eduardo Rodriguez versus Andrew Triggs makes for an interesting meetup of under-established arms. They both look like they’re mid-breakout. Next draft season, we may be targeting them aggressively. Considering the risk associated with pitchers who have short track records, they’re both quite pricey. ERod has the better matchup by miles.

Zack Godley is one of the cheapest arms in the bunch. He’s also my second choice after Darvish. Godley has all the traits of a successful breakout. Velocity is up, offspeed usage is up, and it’s translated to 9.16 K/9. His strikeout rate is more than supported by a 15.2 percent swinging strike rate. The offspeed stuff is responsible – especially the curve ball. His strikeout rate isn’t higher because he induces soft ground ball contact with his sinker. Overall, he has a Brittonian 73.2 percent ground ball rate. That will regress.

Stack Targets: Chris Heston, Matt Boyd, Derek Holland

3. Hitters to Use

Ryan Zimmerman has cooled just enough to fall slightly out of favor. He’ll face a meltdown prone southpaw. Garcia also chips in with surprise gems every now and then. Go ahead and grab other Nationals too, especially Jayson Werth.

I like the idea of using Phillies to patch your roster today. I’m not advocating a full stack. Rather, grab players like $3,000 Cesar Hernandez to seal the cracks. They face Kuhl.

Pitchers returning from the disabled list often lack fineness with their command. Catch a little too much plate and Miguel Sano can make you pay. Watch out Ian Kennedy!

Francisco Lindor is probably my favorite shortstop today. He’s opposed by Musgrove. Lindor will be very popular. Trea Turner will be most popular.

The Rockies are extremely desirable at Great American Ballpark. They’ll see Arroyo plus the soft underbelly. Use Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Mark Reynolds, and any others you like.

4. SaberSim Says…

Archer, Strasburg, Wade Miley, Arrieta, and Sabathia are the top rated pitchers. I get that most of the Rays thumpers are left-handed, but I’m still not worried about them versus a bad southpaw. At one point, I thought there was some dead cat bounce to Sabathia. I’ve given up.

Which of these doesn’t belong? Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant, Mike Trout, and Ben Zobrist are the top rated hitters. There are two answers to the question. SaberSim obviously thinks very little of Chase Anderson.