The Daily Grind: Unexpected Gems

I checked in on my Bold Predictions this morning and found this unexpected gem.

AGENDA

  1. TDG Invitational
  2. Weather Reports
  3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
  4. SaberSim Says…
  5. Benchman Cometh

1.The Daily Grind Invitational

And thus, unexpected gems are the theme of the day. Who had Brett Anderson recording over 18 points? Or a double-dong from Whit Merrifield? Chaz63 used these and more on his way to victory. Notably, Mike Trout squatted the diddly. Congrats and Leaderboard.

We’ve a shiny 10-game slate to play tonight on FantasyDraft. The conditions are ripe for very diverse rosters.

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2. Weather Reports

Light rain is a minor risk in Washington, New York, Pittsburgh, Chicago, and St. Louis. Texas has a very small risk for storms.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

FantasyDraft still has Max Scherzer ($23,000) in the draft pool. And he may well start. However, after breaking his nose in a bunting drill yesterday, it’s far from certain. Given his price tag and difficult opponent, the risk of a shortened outing is a tad imposing.

Lucas Giolito ($22,400) is on an incredible running. I still maintain a modest degree of skepticism, but only because I think his home run rate will regress. The rest of the breakout reads as real to me. Speaking of regression, the Cubs offense is capable of supplying an all-at-once revision to his homer prevention. Giolito is probably a touch overpriced for this matchup, especially in a slate that lacks juicy bargains with which to pair him. I find myself drawn to Jon Lester ($14,500) who I find to trail Giolito by only about one strikeout and maybe half a run. That’s not much difference for a near-$8,000 savings. Perhaps the play of the day is to use both?

Rich Hill ($19,400) is an obvious choice tonight at home against the ghastly Giants. While he’ll turn in the occasional clunker, you can usually count upon him to deliver solid results. The win bonus is well within reach in this one.

Zack Greinke ($18,000) seems like an easy enough choice against the sea level rockies. Jon Gray is a nice value too at $15,200. A humidor and a roof ensure there will be favorable pitching conditions at Chase Field. Many other venues cannot claim the same.

I’ve long been of the belief that Kyle Gibson’s results do not match the quality of his opponents. After a rocky start to the season, he seems to have recovered the mojo he discovered in late-2017 and carried over to 2018. $17,200 is a fair price against a tricky Red Sox lineup. His opponent, Eduardo Rodriguez ($14,600) is more than fairly priced. However, he should only be viewed as a GPP-play due to a large range of plausible outcomes.

Andrew Heaney ($16,400) should earn an easy win, has an outside shot at double-digit strikeouts, and might fall between the cracks of the expensive and more affordable mid-tier plays. The Blue Jays lack right-handed threats beyond a certain Vladito.

I was all prepared to hype Daniel Ponce de Leon ($15,400) for his matchup against the crapstick Marlins. This price feels a little high, basically shutting down any potential for a massive profit without amply rewarding owners for taking the risk of a sub-five inning outing.

I would be all over Trevor Williams ($14,800) against the Tigers if this wasn’t his return from the IL. Steven Matz ($14,000), Jake Arrieta ($14,400), Trevor Richards ($13,600), and Max Fried ($12,300) are all priced in such a way that they’re modestly playable.

Favorite Plays:

Stack Targets: Drew Pomeranz, Aaron Sanchez, Joe Palumbo

There aren’t many truly terrible pitchers in this slate. Even Palumbo isn’t doomed to failure, although a short outing seems nearly guaranteed.

4. SaberSim Says…

The simulator believes Scherzer isn’t pitching. Hill, Lester, Williams, Greinke, and Heaney carry the top projections. Yes, things are… confused. Lester, Williams, Hill, Ponce de Leon?, and Palumbo???? are the values. Well. The Williams pick makes all kinds of sense, injuries are a projection system blind spot. Whoever combs the system for these mistakes typically does so at mid-day. I have no insight into why Ponce de Leon and Palumbo are well-regarded.

Mike Trout, Ronald Acuna, J.D. Martinez, Pete Alonso, and Shohei Ohtani lead the batters. A more sane list, no doubt. Kyle Garlick, Danny Jansen, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Enrique Hernandez, and Maikel Franco are the bargain bats. That last name would of course require Scherzer to not start.

5. Benchman Cometh

This is what I dream of every time I accidentally start somebody who is benched.

This guy is back. A good thing fans are beyond clumsy at catching things.

Even watching Yamamoto’s strikeouts, you can pretty easily see the early results do not really reflect the (lack of) talent.





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hscermember
4 years ago

Unexpected gems, like Tyler Beede shutting down 5 straight left-handed Dodgers?