The Daily Grind: True Innings, Aces, Hicks

Agenda

1. True Innings and ottoneu Lessons
2. Daily DFS – Aces
3. GB / FB Splits
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Buehrle, Conley, Hicks, Castillo
5. Factor Grid

1. True Innings and ottoneu Lessons

Roto and points leagues usually come equipped with an innings cap. The rate at which an owner burns through those innings can distort the standings until late in the season. With fantasy trade deadlines right around the corner, it’s important to know who is fooling you with an inflated (or deflated) innings total.

In the ottoneu league FanGraphs Staff Two, I’m currently 140 points behind Chad Young for first place. However, Chad has thrown 67 more innings than me, and we’re both above pace. I’ve averaged 5.78 points per inning on the strength of good relief, Clayton Kershaw, and Corey Kluber. If I hadn’t started disasterpieces from Shane Greene and Collin McHugh, I’d be up over six points per inning.

Applying some regression, let’s say I score 5.5 points per inning over the rest of the season. Multiplying by Chad’s 67 inning lead, I have 369 points in hand. Even though the standings say Chad is in the lead, I actually have a roughly 229 point lead. It’s still a neck-and-neck competition, but I came out looking better than first glance.

Using this information, I decided to do what I can to make all of those innings count. To that end, I traded a bevy of solid, affordable keepers for Zack Grienke. Here’s a picture of the full deal.

In ottoneu, player salaries go up $2 per offseason plus an arbitration phase. On my roster, Greinke should go untouched in arbitration. While I probably won’t be able to afford a $33 Greinke next year, he’ll have plenty of trade value on the offseason market. I should be able to recoup at least half of what I traded – perhaps in the form of one player.

Street and Tazawa will replace McAllister and Uehara. I took Phillips because Chad needs a replacement level second baseman after Howie Kendrick went on the disabled list. This blocks him from acquiring a decent one.

2. Daily DFS – Aces

Yesterday’s Grind

It’s All-Play Tuesday. I’d steer clear of the Mets game – they’re due for storms all day long. Sorry Matt Harvey and Chris Rusin.

That leaves four aces – Zack Greinke, Madison Bumgarner, Carlos Carrasco, and Carlos Martinez. The two big names are at least $11,900 on FanDuel. The lesser pair costs $9,800 and $9,700 respectively.

In the bargain bin, you’ll find a couple high ceiling rookies. Joe Ross would be a nice pick at $7,700 if he wasn’t opposed by Grienke and the Dodgers. Tough break. Luis Severino has it easier at Cleveland, but he’s still opposed by a very good pitcher and a solid lineup.

Perhaps the smarter pick is Erasmo Ramirez versus Williams Perez and the Braves. Ramirez hasn’t been in top form in recently weeks, but he seems to have finally settled in as a reliable major league pitcher. Something like 9 to 14 points seems like a reasonable expectation tonight. The Rays have a quick hook with their starters.

Maybe you should just make room for an ace.

Stack Targets: Hector Santiago, Yordano Ventura, Jeremy Hellickson, Jeff Locke, Carlos Rodon, Perez, Michael Lorenzen, Rusin, Justin Nicolino, David Buchanan, Colin Rea

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

Austin Jackson, Kyle Seager, and Jesus Montero v Chris Tillman
Geovany Soto, Jose Abreu, and Adam Eaton v Hector Santiago
Prince Fielder v Kyle Gibson
A.J. Pollock v David Buchanan
Derek Dietrich v Steven Wright
Adam Lind and Ryan Braun v Dan Haren

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Buehrle, Conley, Hicks, Castillo

Pitchers to Start: The Blue Jays will probably pummel Aaron Brooks. In two starts with the A’s, Brooks has pitched well. He has a 1.26 ERA in 14.1 innings with 7.53 K/9, 0.63 BB/9, and a .205 BABIP. He’s a command and control type so the walk rate is borderline believable. However, the fly ball pitcher has a track record of high BABIPs in the minors. I’m calling three Toronto home runs over the first five innings.

That should be all Mark Buehrle needs to beat the A’s. As we’re all well aware, Buehlre usually lasts deep into his starts but doesn’t strikeout hitters. If you’re win hunting, he’s a smart play. If you need ratios, go with one of the rookies below.

Also consider: Aaron Nola, Eduardo Rodriguez, Andrew Heaney

Pitchers to Exploit: Adam Conley used to be a power lefty, but an elbow injury forced him to focus on command and control. While the Red Sox lineup isn’t likely to pop home runs at Marlins Stadium, it’s a nice location for all other types of hits. Conley looks particularly hittable for a mostly right-handed lineup.

Also consider: Kevin Gausman, Raisel Iglesias, Scott Feldman, Brooks, CC Sabathia, Jorge de la Rosa, Matt Wisler, Matt Garza, John Danks, Daniel Norris, Mike Pelfrey, Nick Martinez

Hitters (power): Aaron Hicks suddenly looks like the real deal, and he’s getting the job done with a more aggressive approach. There was a time when everybody in the saberverse fell in love with walks. Hicks has always been a discerning hitter in the minors. However, a high walk rate isn’t for everybody.

Some guys, Adam Jones for instance, are much better off when jumping on any hittable pitch in any count. Hicks looks like he might be one of those guys. That he’s capable of being patient bodes well for his career. It took him a long time to get off the ground, but I’m optimistic that he could be a solid fantasy outfielder.

Also consider: Andre Ethier, Mitch Moreland, Eddie Rosario, C.J. Cron, Chris Coghlan, Michael Conforto, Ryan Raburn, Domonic Brown

Hitters (speed): I’m not ready to say that Rusney Castillo should be owned in every league. However, he should be owned tomorrow against Conley. He’s recently been bumped to second in the order. Since his recall from the minors, he’s slashing .333/.375/.444 with a .412 BABIP. I’d still like to see more power – at least doubles if not home runs.

Also consider: Tyler Saladino, Odubel Herrera, Will Venable, Brad Miller

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Mets game is a storm risk and possible rainout. Everywhere else is dry or roofed. Once again, the parks skew pitcher friendly.

The Link.

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