The Daily Grind: Tropeano, Eickhoff, Welington, Jankowski

Agenda

1. YCPB
2. Daily DFS
3. GB / FB Splits
4. SaberSim Hi/Lo
5. Tomorrow’s Targets – Smyly, Eickhoff, Flores, Welington, Jankowski
6. Factor Grid

1. YCPB

Or maybe you can. Yesterday, I railed on all the various sites that bespoke doom for Corey Kluber in Boston. Sure enough, he coughed up six runs on four home runs over six innings. He also struck out nine (in fact, his outing was still a net positive for me in two H2H leagues). Various sites saw Kluber as a very thin favorite yesterday. While I’m confident that 100 trials would still prove me right – he should have been a massive favorite against Joe Kelly – reality has left me looking a little foolish.

With one game samples, it’s necessary to take the long view. Sure, it can pay to second guess yourself when results fly in the face of your expectations. However, you won’t always change your mind. If Kluber was returning to the same matchup in 5 days, I would still pick him as a top performer. Simply put, you can’t predict baseball.

2. Daily DFS

Yesterday’s Grind

We have 11 night games today. Three aces populate the field – Chris Archer, Max Scherzer, and Jake Arrieta. Scherzer is SaberSim’s favorite despite Coors Field. His repertoire – namely an elite four-seam fastball and slider – actually performs fine in Colorado. The large field and homer prone nature of the park are still negatives for the fly ball pitcher, but he’s not an automatic pass.

Archer is interesting in that he’ll see the high variance Astros in Houston. The Rangers recently beat upon Archer in Texas. Of the aces, Archer costs the most and projects to do the least. He doesn’t have the same level of otherworldly polish as Scherzer.

Or Arrieta. Of the aces, the Cubs hurler has the best matchup. He’ll take the bump at Turner Field. The Braves lineup is the definition of unintimidating (although my spellchecker claims that isn’t a word). If I find budget for an ace, it will be Arrieta.

Luckily, today offers a wide selection of interesting low cost pitchers. I like Nick Tropeano the most. He’s a mere $5,600 on FanDuel yet SaberSim projects him as the fourth best pitcher. I had already picked him out as a favorite bargain before viewing SaberSim so that only confirms my instinct. Tropeano is capable of recording a strikeout per inning with a solid walk rate. However, he’s not bulletproof as shown by his 4.81 ERA in Triple-A.

I (and SaberSim) also like Patrick Corbin. It’s too bad he’s playing at ridiculously homer happy Great American Ball Park.

Stack Targets: Alfredo Simon, Jake Peavy, Wade Miley, Miguel Gonzalez, Mike Foltynewicz, Martin Perez, Josh Tomlin, Brad Hand, Jerome Williams, John Lamb, Yohan Flande

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

It’s a good day for stacks. Here we go…

Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts, Brock Holt v Danny Duffy
Jung-ho Kang, Francisco Cervelli v Jake Peavy
Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez v Josh Tomlin
Addison Russell, Jorge Soler, Dexter Fowler v Mike Foltynewicz
Jayson Werth v Yohan Flande
Rajai Davis and Nick Castellanos v Martin Perez

4. SaberSim Hi/Lo

Wrong: The Phillies offense is bad. I don’t (and won’t) dispute that. However, no degree of offensive ineptitude makes Brad Hand the sixth best pitcher today. Projecting him to pitch a hair under seven innings is a stretch. He’s accomplished the feat just four times in the last two seasons (20 starts). His longest outing was 7.1 innings. A projection of seven innings really means he’ll range somewhere between 5.2 and 8.1 innings. Incorrect. If he even starts the eighth inning, he’ll be in rare territory. History also tells us that he’s prone to very short outings. And it has very little to do with the quality of opponent.

Right: Miguel Sano’s price tag has finally climbed to $4,100 on FanDuel. He has the 10th highest projection per SaberSim. While he’s liable to go 0-for-4 with three strikeouts, there are a couple factors in his favor. Camden Yards is a solid home for right-handed power. It would be better were Sano a lefty swinger. More importantly, opposing starter Miguel Gonzalez is a fly ball pitcher with a long history of elevated HR/FB ratios. Sano is among the best bets to pop one over the wall. Too bad he’s costly.

But…: Baltimore is a storm risk tonight, building from 60 to 80 percent throughout the game. Based on the current report, the game is over as soon as it goes into delay. The weather element is one that SaberSim does not track. If we expect the game to go about seven innings total, then we need to drop a plate appearance from Sano’s projection. Of course, you can dodge the issue entirely – why add unnecessary uncertainty?

5. Tomorrow’s Targets – Smyly, Eickhoff, Flores, Welington, Jankowski

Pitchers to Start: Drew Smyly wasn’t sharp in his return from the disabled list last week. As such, he’s a risky investment against the Athletics. The Rays are visiting the Coliseum, a notoriously pitcher friendly stadium. He’s a decent bet to avoid the two home runs that did him in last week. Encouragingly, Smyly notched four strikeouts. However, he also walked a pair, continuing a trend that plagued him during his rehab stint. My guess is that he doesn’t have a great feel for his command yet. It’s a good matchup, but it might be too early to use Smyly.

Also consider: Kyle Hendricks, Jon Gray

Pitchers to Exploit: Let’s talk Phillies and Marlins. Jerad Eickhoff – part of the Cole Hamels haul – will make his major league debut tomorrow. At Triple-A, he’s shown decent strikeout stuff with solid command. His fastball is his best pitch and generally sits in the low-to-mid-90s. His offspeed stuff needs refinement.

The Marlins will try Kendry Flores. The righty doesn’t have exciting stuff, but he reportedly understands how to sequence and command. I wouldn’t count on many strikeouts. Flores has worked out of the bullpen since around the start of August. He may not be allowed to go beyond 80 or 90 pitches. Then again, this is the same Marlins team that did almost nothing to slow Jose Fernandez’s return to normal usage.

Also consider: Jeff Locke, Colby Lewis, David Holmberg, Rubby de la Rosa, Jerad Eickoff, Kendry Flores, Hector Santiago

Hitters (power): It didn’t start this way, but Welington Castillo is in the midst of his best season. It took two trades to find him consistent playing time. Since joining the Diamondbacks, he’s slashed .267/.346/.570 with a .307 BABIP. His .303 ISO will regress, but so what? Castillo is best against left-handed pitching, and he’ll face an easy one tomorrow at power friendly Great American Ball Park. He’s a career .297/.369/.486 hitter against southpaws. Watch out Holmberg.

Also consider: Chris Colabello, Kelly Johnson, Ben Paulsen, Andre Ethier, Enrique Hernandez, Chase Utley, Nolan Reimold, Jonathan Schoop

Hitters (speed): Now that Will Venable has left San Diego, Travis Jankowski is supposed to start against most right-handed pitchers. He reminds me of a non-switch-hitting, outfield version of Cesar Hernandez. His minor league numbers include a strong walk rate and few strikeouts. Major league pitchers will challenge his punchless bat which should lead to a high average. He stole 32 bases in the minors this year and could pick up another five or 10 depending on playing time.

Also consider: Darnell Sweeney, Ichiro Suzuki, Cesar Hernandez, Danny Espinosa

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

I mentioned the Baltimore storm risk above. The rest of baseball should stay dry.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by Key and Peele. Because why would they be aware of a Daily Fantasy column for casual players?