The Daily Grind: Travis, Padres, Haren

Agenda

1. Farnsworth on Travis
2. Daily DFS – Padres
3. GB / FB Splits
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Haren, Walker, Hart, Inciarte
5. Factor Grid

1. Farnsworth on Travis

The Blue Jays are getting pummelled with injuries, but at least they’re of the short term variety. Devon Travis is listed as day-to-day with a rib injury. Over the weekend, I asked Dan Farnsworth for his thoughts about Travis. The second baseman is hitting .356/.408/.644 on the season while showing a high contact approach. He had even temporarily seized the leadoff job while Jose Reyes is sidelined. Here’s what Farnsworth had to say (slightly edited):

I’m a fan. He’s got a great swing with quick hands that allows him to hit line drives and hard fly balls regularly. He has shown a tendency to be out on his front foot in the past, though his hand path and bat speed have allowed him to still get hits even when he’s fooled. So far this year he seems to have kept that tendency in check, looking more balanced than in his minor league swings and providing a stronger base for his hands to work from.

I definitely like his chances of besting his ZIPS and Steamer projections on batting average (thinking like .280-.290 true talent level). If he can continue the improvement to his balance, he’s probably closer to a 20 homer guy than the 10-15 I would have pegged him at previously.

If he’s still on your league’s waiver wire, it’s time to make a move.

2. Daily DFS – Padres

Early: The Orioles and Red Sox are the lone early game. You’ll have to do without them.

Late: We have eight late games today. The Padres will visit Coors Field for the first time this year. Southpaw Jorge de la Rosa is returning from injury to start for the Rockies. The Padres possess a very right-handed lineup, and de la Rosa has some ugly splits. Over his career, righties have posted a .266/.353/.445 line against him.

De la Rosa is unique in that he pitches better at Coors than on the road. Who knows if that’s a “true” observation or statistical noise. Since he’s returning from injury, it seems like a good day to pounce on Padres. Derek Norris, Jedd Gyorko, and Will Middlebrooks are affordable.

Stack Targets: de la Rosa, Odrisamer Despaigne, John Danks, Asher Wojciechowski, C.C. Sabathia, Alfredo Simon, Kendall Graveman

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

Half of the Mariners lineup likes fly ball pitchers, so they have a good matchup with Brad Peacock and the Astros. Kyle Seager and Mike Zunino are the best plays from the perspective of this particular split.

Adam Lind has a .968 OPS against fly ball pitchers. Ryan Braun has a .921 fly ball OPS. They’re up against Anthony DeSclafani at homer happy Miller Park.

Others to consider include Gyorko, Todd Frazier, and Justin Morneau.

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Haren, Walker, Hart, Inciarte

Pitchers to Start: Dan Haren draws the always wonderful matchup against the Phillies. So long as Haren can successfully navigate past Chase Utley, he should turn in a strong outing. Hope for six to seven innings, a handful of strikeouts, and a win.

The 2015 version of Haren is far from imposing. His fastball averages 87 mph, but he mostly leans on a 84 mph cutter. Overall, I don’t anticipate much success from Haren this year. But I’ll grab a share anytime he’s facing Philadelphia.

Also consider: Jon Niese

Pitchers to Exploit: Taijuan Walker isn’t the top target to exploit tomorrow, yet he might be the most interesting. In the past, Walker struggled with control. This spring, he ditched a lousy slider for a cutter. He was arguably the best pitcher of March.

Since the start of the season, Walker’s velocity has dropped one mph, his control has vanished, and the opposition has hammered him. The cutter still rates as an excellent pitch. Unfortunately, his other four offerings have been below average or worse. We’ll see what the feast or famine Astros do against him.

Also consider: Tim Lincecum, Jason Marquis, Jason Vargas, Hector Noesi, Kyle Lobstein, Bud Norris

Hitters (power): The Pirates have not faced many left-handed pitchers in the early going. They’ll see Travis Wood tomorrow. Corey Hart should get the start at first base. The game is at PNC Park which makes Hart an iffy power play. He’s also something of a mystery after missing most of the last two seasons.

Also consider: Jed Lowrie, Luis Valbuena, Mark Canha, Gyorko, Middlebrooks, Norris, Kennys Vargas, Trevor Plouffe,

Hitters (speed): If you want a speed guy, Ender Inciarte appears to have been installed as the everyday leadoff man. I still can’t fathom how the Diamondbacks intend to make this lineup work. Along with Inciarte, David Peralta is the cleanup against right-handed pitchers. A.J. Pollock and Mark Trumbo are every day guys. And Yasmany Tomas has to play at some point. Were I running that team, I would have swapped Peralta for catcher.

Also consider: Craig Gentry, Collin Cowgill, Peralta, Scooter Gennett, Gerardo Parra,

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Link. We have a nice split of hitter and pitcher stadiums today. Just watch out for rain in Boston and Pittsburgh.

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