The Daily Grind: Travis, Norris, Davis

Agenda

  1. On Behavioral Framing
  2. Daily DFS – Travis, Flores, Owings
  3. GB / FB Splits
  4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Norris, House, Canha, Davis
  5. Factor Grid

1. On Behavioral Framing

Yesterday, I discussed my aversion to batter vs. pitcher (BvP) data. Commenter Belle of the League summarized why I don’t even reference the information (slightly edited):

When deciding between two relatively equal players for a particular day, BvP gives you a subconscious push towards a choice.

It’s important to vet the information you reference because it will influence the players you use. The Book says that BvP and “hot hitters” are a statistical fallacy. I’m very confident hot streaks are real. Back in my heyday, there were pitchers I owned who flummoxed my teammates. However, it appears we do a lousy job separating signal and noise related to these effects. The result is an opportunity to frame our decisions in the wrong direction.

2. Daily DFS – Travis, Flores, Owings

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: It looks like Devon Travis is now a leadoff man while Jose Reyes is out. More importantly, he’s super cheap. He’s looked impressive in the early going. He’s a high contact hitter who has shown some pop in hitter friendly parks. We’ll see if pitchers adjust.

Late: Shortstop can be a difficult position to fill on FanDuel. Most of the guys offer very little power upside, so you’re usually looking for multi-hit threats. You’re often forced to pay over the $3,000 threshold on FanDuel.

A couple mid-ceiling shortstops have started slowly. Now they’re extra cheap. Flores is suffering BABIP deficiency syndrome. He’s hitting .172/.250/.310 with a .200 BABIP. The bigger concern is a 10 percent whiff rate. We’re still in small sample land, but we’re hoping for a whiff rate around six percent.

Owings is an extreme example of the small sample crazies. He’s hitting .103/.133/.138 with a .200 BABIP and a 22 percent whiff rate. No wonder he’s struck out in nearly half of his plate appearances. He’s a guy who should make contact much more often going forward. Don’t be surprise if he’s optioned for a brief period.

Stack Targets: Chris Tillman, Clay BuchholzKyle Lohse, Vance Worley, Mat Latos, Colby Lewis

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

I didn’t receive a list from Jeff today, but I can point out that the Yankees stack will be up against Jeff Odorizzi. The same guys who were good picks yesterday remain good picks today.

I’ll try to update if/when I hear from Jeff.

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Norris, House, Canha, Davis

Pitchers to Start: There aren’t many pitchers to stream tomorrow, so we’re left with an upside play at a hitter’s park. Thankfully, Daniel Norris will face the miserable Braves offense. Thus far, said miserable offense is 15th in runs scored. Let’s not overreact to a small sample. They should challenge the Phillies for the lowest run total in the league.

As for Norris, he has four average or better pitches and carved through hitters this spring. His 17 major league innings have been less than impressive, but he has the stuff to strikeout at least a batter per inning. Keep an eye on the home runs allowed – he appears to be an extreme fly ball pitcher.

Also consider: Tim Hudson

Pitchers to Exploit: I like T.J. House – at least what I saw of him last year. However, his first start of the season lasted just four outs and included bouts of wildness. Most worryingly, his velocity dropped two mph from last season. House is a ground ball pitcher who relies on command and control. If those aren’t working in his favor, he won’t pull his weight in the rotation.

As you’ll notice below, there are plenty of other options to exploit.

Also consider: Matt Andriese, David Buchanan, Trevor May, Scott Feldman, Jeremy HellicksonEddie Butler

Hitters (power): Mark Canha has earned additional playing time from the Athletics. He’s hitting .293/.310/.439 in 42 plate appearances. His batting average will probably decline to around .240. Without a respective increase in walk rate, Canha will offer very little offensive value. However, he does strike me as the kind of hitter who could feast on left-handed pitching. He’ll see Danny Duffy tomorrow.

Also consider: Justin Ruggiano, Chris Johnson, Trevor Plouffe, Mike Zunino

Hitters (speed): Rajai Davis is back in action against a lefty. Jose Quintana doesn’t have big platoon splits, but Davis sure does. He’s liable to bat first and offers a combination of power and speed.

Also consider: Juan Lagares, Michael Bourn, Angel Pagan, Nori Aoki

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Royals game is in danger of postponement. Watch out for St. Louis and New York too, although they’ll probably play.

The Link. As with yesterday, there are only two thoroughly green stadiums. You’ll have to get creative targeting specific park factors.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment. 





You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam

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Blair
8 years ago

It’s too early to adjust the park factors, but the new turf at Rogers Centre is like wet mud. The BABIP on groundballs is roughly 0.000 right now… give or take.