The Daily Grind: Trade Talks, Tropeano, Happ

Agenda

  1. Trade Talks
  2. Daily DFS – Tropeano
  3. GB / FB Splits
  4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Erasmo, Gonzalez, Happ, Rua, Ichiro
  5. Factor Grid

1. Trade Talks

I’ve once again been dared to submit a trade to the judgment of my esteemed readers. When commenting, do let me know if you enjoy these topics or prefer something more advice/analysis driven. I’m going to remove the team names in an attempt to remove bias from the conversation. However, daily readers of the column will probably recognize which team is mine.

It’s a keeper league. Team A is 1.5 points out of first place and 1.5 points ahead of third. Team B is rebuilding. Team A submitted an offer of $22 to keep Josh Donaldson for Team B’s Aroldis Chapman, $15 to keep Ken Giles, and $43 to keep Giancarlo Stanton.

Team A has three stud keeper third baseman ($8 Kris Bryant, $29 Manny Machado) so depth isn’t an issue. The club is 1.5 points behind first place, but the gap is slightly larger once we adjust for IP (about five points). Assuming Jonathan Papelbon is traded, adding the pair of closers is worth about four points in saves and another five points in strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP.

Team A is starting two of Colby Rasmus, Torii Hunter, Kevin Kiermaier, or Chris Coghlan in the outfield. When he returns, Giancarlo Stanton will replace one of them (Team A also owns George Springer). Donaldson will be replaced at UTIL with a Rougned OdorBrandon Crawford platoon. In short, Team A probably doesn’t lose or gain any offensive points while dealing Donaldson.

Team B asserts that this trade hands Team A the league victory. First prize is $200, second is $100, and third is $40. Team A would gain $100 to $160 real American dollars. Nothing is guaranteed in reality, but it would be hard for his opponents to counter this gain. As such, Team B asked for more, namely $8 Bryant, $8 Carlos Correa, and $15 Carlos Carrasco for Chapman, Giles, and Stanton. Including Correa simply forces the owner to use Crawford AND Odor on a daily basis.

Here’s where I’d like your opinion. First you can grade the two trades. In my opinion, both proposing teams asked for too much. However, it’s possible that one team had merit in submitting a big ask. The expected outcome of the trade is worth a lot of actual dollars to Team A.

On a related note, when does it make sense to overpay in keeper value for a victory? I’d estimate that Team A currently has a 10 percent chance to win, 80 percent chance to finish second, and 10 percent chance to finish third ($104 expected value). After the first trade, the odds would increase to something like 80-18-2 ($179 EV). After the second trade, perhaps 75-23-2 ($174 EV). Even if those estimates are off, the expected value of the deal is worth at least $40.

What matters more, increasing the financial payout or balancing the perceived value of the trade without regard to financial implications?

Last question, given what little you know about these rosters, what do you think would be a fair middle ground?

2. Daily DFS – Tropeano

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: The Phillies and Cubs are today’s cheese. They stand alone. It’s too bad because Jerome Williams is awfully exploitable.

Late: It’s a day of aces with Max Scherzer, Felix Hernandez, and Chris Archer on the docket (among others). At least in a GPP, I think I prefer to roll the dice on a budget solution. Yesterday, we discussed the viability of Chris Tillman at Tropicana Field. He’s just $6,300 on FanDuel coming off a 20 point outing.

I’m a big fan of Nick Tropeano, although I’m not entirely sold on his matchup tonight. In 11 Triple-A starts, he posted 9.59 K/9 and 2.95 BB/9. An elevated home run rate led to a 4.43 ERA. If he can keep the ball in the yard, he has the tools to post excellent value. He’s opposed by Colby Lewis. I anticipate anywhere from six to 16 points for Tropeano tonight.

Stack Targets: Jeff Locke, Justin Verlander, Rick Porcello, Ian Thomas, Jeremy Guthrie, Anthony DeSclafani, Eddie Butler

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

We have 42 names to ponder today. Choice is good.

Kole Calhoun, Chris Iannetta, Albert Pujols, and Mike Trout v Colby Lewis
Will Venable and Justin Upton (if he plays) v Dan Haren
Derek Dietrich v Andrew Cashner
Yasiel Puig v Jon Niese
Billy Butler and Brett Lawrie v Jake Peavy
Alex Rodriguez, Chase Headley, and Mark Teixeira v Phil Hughes

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Erasmo, Gonzalez, Happ, Rua, Ichiro

Pitchers to Start: Tomorrow isn’t a good day for streaming starters. The best options face each other. Miguel Gonzalez is opposed by Erasmo Ramirez at Tropicana Field. Ramirez has pitched well this season. I believe the Rays aggressive use of relievers has allowed him to focus on shorter bursts. Unfortunately, that also means he’s a bad bet for a win on any given night.

Gonzalez is a decent bet to last six innings. His biggest issue is with home runs. Lucky for him, Tropicana Field is the only pitcher friendly park in the AL East.

Also considerZach Lee

Pitchers to Exploit: I usually think about using J.A. Happ, but not tomorrow. He’ll have to survive the lefty mashing Blue Jays. Happ is particularly difficult against left-handed hitters, but he won’t see any of those tomorrow. He has just 5.31 K/9 and 2.49 BB/9 against righties. The Blue Jays have declined to a 131 wRC+ against southpaws. The Tigers are second best with a 118 wRC+.

Also consider: Chris Bassitt, Steven Wright, Scott Feldman, Danny Duffy, CC Sabathia, Tommy Milone, Chris Rusin, David Phelps

Hitters (power): Ryan Rua seems to start against most left-handed pitchers. He has 20 to 25 home run power, but he has too much swing-and-miss to earn the necessary plate appearances. If you’re in a particularly deep league and in need of power, you could give him a try. Just don’t be surprised when he strikes out three times. If you want a higher floor, there are plenty below.

Also consider: Yonder Alonso, Scooter Gennett, Marlon Byrd, Chase Headley, David DeJesus, James Loney

Hitters (speed): Obviously Ichiro Suzuki is a shadow of his former self. He’s also batting leadoff for the Stanton-and-Gordon-less Marlins. He has eight stolen bases in 13 attempts. He could swipe one against Derek Norris and the Padres.

Also consider: Delino DeShields, Will Venable, Anthony Gose

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

It’s another pitcher friendly day. The Boston game has a 40% chance of rain.

The Link. TABLE NOTES

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment. 





You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam

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BMW1
8 years ago

Brad, a Team gives up Gomez (keep at 17) for Kershaw and Bautista(can’t keep either) and trade deadline is tomorrow. 10 team 6×6 Roto with only 8 keepers and the team only needs one more keeper. Veto that? How close of a decision is it really?

Jon J
8 years ago
Reply to  BMW1

BMW I think thats a fair trade, no veto necessary.
Why does your league have such an early trade-deadline?