The Daily Grind: Trade Talks, Tropeano, Happ
Agenda
- Trade Talks
- Daily DFS – Tropeano
- GB / FB Splits
- Tomorrow’s Targets – Erasmo, Gonzalez, Happ, Rua, Ichiro
- Factor Grid
1. Trade Talks
I’ve once again been dared to submit a trade to the judgment of my esteemed readers. When commenting, do let me know if you enjoy these topics or prefer something more advice/analysis driven. I’m going to remove the team names in an attempt to remove bias from the conversation. However, daily readers of the column will probably recognize which team is mine.
It’s a keeper league. Team A is 1.5 points out of first place and 1.5 points ahead of third. Team B is rebuilding. Team A submitted an offer of $22 to keep Josh Donaldson for Team B’s Aroldis Chapman, $15 to keep Ken Giles, and $43 to keep Giancarlo Stanton.
Team A has three stud keeper third baseman ($8 Kris Bryant, $29 Manny Machado) so depth isn’t an issue. The club is 1.5 points behind first place, but the gap is slightly larger once we adjust for IP (about five points). Assuming Jonathan Papelbon is traded, adding the pair of closers is worth about four points in saves and another five points in strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP.
Team A is starting two of Colby Rasmus, Torii Hunter, Kevin Kiermaier, or Chris Coghlan in the outfield. When he returns, Giancarlo Stanton will replace one of them (Team A also owns George Springer). Donaldson will be replaced at UTIL with a Rougned Odor–Brandon Crawford platoon. In short, Team A probably doesn’t lose or gain any offensive points while dealing Donaldson.
Team B asserts that this trade hands Team A the league victory. First prize is $200, second is $100, and third is $40. Team A would gain $100 to $160 real American dollars. Nothing is guaranteed in reality, but it would be hard for his opponents to counter this gain. As such, Team B asked for more, namely $8 Bryant, $8 Carlos Correa, and $15 Carlos Carrasco for Chapman, Giles, and Stanton. Including Correa simply forces the owner to use Crawford AND Odor on a daily basis.
Here’s where I’d like your opinion. First you can grade the two trades. In my opinion, both proposing teams asked for too much. However, it’s possible that one team had merit in submitting a big ask. The expected outcome of the trade is worth a lot of actual dollars to Team A.
On a related note, when does it make sense to overpay in keeper value for a victory? I’d estimate that Team A currently has a 10 percent chance to win, 80 percent chance to finish second, and 10 percent chance to finish third ($104 expected value). After the first trade, the odds would increase to something like 80-18-2 ($179 EV). After the second trade, perhaps 75-23-2 ($174 EV). Even if those estimates are off, the expected value of the deal is worth at least $40.
What matters more, increasing the financial payout or balancing the perceived value of the trade without regard to financial implications?
Last question, given what little you know about these rosters, what do you think would be a fair middle ground?
2. Daily DFS – Tropeano
Early: The Phillies and Cubs are today’s cheese. They stand alone. It’s too bad because Jerome Williams is awfully exploitable.
Late: It’s a day of aces with Max Scherzer, Felix Hernandez, and Chris Archer on the docket (among others). At least in a GPP, I think I prefer to roll the dice on a budget solution. Yesterday, we discussed the viability of Chris Tillman at Tropicana Field. He’s just $6,300 on FanDuel coming off a 20 point outing.
I’m a big fan of Nick Tropeano, although I’m not entirely sold on his matchup tonight. In 11 Triple-A starts, he posted 9.59 K/9 and 2.95 BB/9. An elevated home run rate led to a 4.43 ERA. If he can keep the ball in the yard, he has the tools to post excellent value. He’s opposed by Colby Lewis. I anticipate anywhere from six to 16 points for Tropeano tonight.
Stack Targets: Jeff Locke, Justin Verlander, Rick Porcello, Ian Thomas, Jeremy Guthrie, Anthony DeSclafani, Eddie Butler
3. GB / FB Splits
The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.
We have 42 names to ponder today. Choice is good.
Kole Calhoun, Chris Iannetta, Albert Pujols, and Mike Trout v Colby Lewis
Will Venable and Justin Upton (if he plays) v Dan Haren
Derek Dietrich v Andrew Cashner
Yasiel Puig v Jon Niese
Billy Butler and Brett Lawrie v Jake Peavy
Alex Rodriguez, Chase Headley, and Mark Teixeira v Phil Hughes
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Erasmo, Gonzalez, Happ, Rua, Ichiro
Pitchers to Start: Tomorrow isn’t a good day for streaming starters. The best options face each other. Miguel Gonzalez is opposed by Erasmo Ramirez at Tropicana Field. Ramirez has pitched well this season. I believe the Rays aggressive use of relievers has allowed him to focus on shorter bursts. Unfortunately, that also means he’s a bad bet for a win on any given night.
Gonzalez is a decent bet to last six innings. His biggest issue is with home runs. Lucky for him, Tropicana Field is the only pitcher friendly park in the AL East.
Also consider: Zach Lee
Pitchers to Exploit: I usually think about using J.A. Happ, but not tomorrow. He’ll have to survive the lefty mashing Blue Jays. Happ is particularly difficult against left-handed hitters, but he won’t see any of those tomorrow. He has just 5.31 K/9 and 2.49 BB/9 against righties. The Blue Jays have declined to a 131 wRC+ against southpaws. The Tigers are second best with a 118 wRC+.
Also consider: Chris Bassitt, Steven Wright, Scott Feldman, Danny Duffy, CC Sabathia, Tommy Milone, Chris Rusin, David Phelps
Hitters (power): Ryan Rua seems to start against most left-handed pitchers. He has 20 to 25 home run power, but he has too much swing-and-miss to earn the necessary plate appearances. If you’re in a particularly deep league and in need of power, you could give him a try. Just don’t be surprised when he strikes out three times. If you want a higher floor, there are plenty below.
Also consider: Yonder Alonso, Scooter Gennett, Marlon Byrd, Chase Headley, David DeJesus, James Loney
Hitters (speed): Obviously Ichiro Suzuki is a shadow of his former self. He’s also batting leadoff for the Stanton-and-Gordon-less Marlins. He has eight stolen bases in 13 attempts. He could swipe one against Derek Norris and the Padres.
Also consider: Delino DeShields, Will Venable, Anthony Gose
5. The Factor Grid
The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.
It’s another pitcher friendly day. The Boston game has a 40% chance of rain.
The Link. TABLE NOTES
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Brad, a Team gives up Gomez (keep at 17) for Kershaw and Bautista(can’t keep either) and trade deadline is tomorrow. 10 team 6×6 Roto with only 8 keepers and the team only needs one more keeper. Veto that? How close of a decision is it really?
BMW I think thats a fair trade, no veto necessary.
Why does your league have such an early trade-deadline?
Brad, maybe you could just pick me up and ride me to the title… hope you didn’t have time to put that stack together yesterday.
I think that the second trade is too lopsided, while the first one is a good starting point. Just one of Bryant or Correa for $8 is more than enough value. Bryant at $8 for Stanton, Giles and Chapman seems like a fair deal considering the prices, the fact that Stanton is currently injured, and that there is a small chance Giles doesn’t become the closer. Also, I don’t see an issue with using Odor everyday, I truly believe he can be a .280 hitter with 15 HR+SB and 55+ RBI+R the rest of the way.
I think the real American dollar value is irrelevant. We play for glory. Competitive balance matters, though of course each team should simply try to get the best trade it can. I’d think adding any of the keepers listed in proposal 2 (correa, Carrasco, Bryant) to proposal 1 (Donaldson) would be in the range of fair. I don’t really think you can overpay in keep value, if you have a chance to win in a really competitive league you grab it because there are too many things that can happen before next season, in life and in baseball, that diminish the current value of keepers significantly.
I was wondering if your readers might be interested in sharing data regarding optimal GPP line ups. I know there are sites that will tell you what lineup was absolutely optimal the night before, but would it make sense to pool info on what actual line ups won actual contests to try to better understand optimal budgeting? Just a thought, enjoying the column
As the owner of the team in 3rd place, I say Team B should ask for more.
I wish you had ANY keepers Peter 🙂
He did, but I took ’em. 😉
The issue here is Brad wants to make a fair trade of 2015 values swaps, which is silly. If you want multiple future years, you need to pay more than $1:$1 in present value to acquire keeper value, or else I’m better off keeping my keepers.
In an ideal world, I’m moving the injured Spring (he’s either $15 or 22 to keep, I can’t recall) and $10 Darvish for 1 non-keeper closer with job security (ideally a Chapman or Holland type), 1 non-keeper elite SP, and 1 non-keeper OF that replaces Springers 2015 value ROS (as if healthy and productive)
Also, offense isnt really my problem. I’m 1st in R by 46, 1st in homers by 6, T-1st in RBI (which is 63 RBI ahead of 3rd), 3rd in SB (2 behind 2nd and 10 ahead of 4th), and 1st in OPS by a such a significant margin that it would take a month of hitting .600 to bring me to a catchable range at this point in the season. I could use a little shoring up on the offense, but by core of Rizzo/Odor/Machado/Correa/Bryant/Harper/Donaldson more than make up for the shortcomings of Navarro at C (D’Arnaud on the DL) and Keirmaier/Rasmus rounding out my OF — particularly with Springer on the mend and Schwarber in the bigs. I also like Coghlan as a last OF type in our deep format. My biggest hole is CL (I have 2 that have underperformed in Kimbrel and Uehara) and total innings. My W/ERA/WHIP are upper half but I’m a starter and a half short on the innings cap and within striking distance of making noise by gaining points in K/W. The ideal move for my team is to acquire 1 non-keeper ace, 2 non-keeper CLs, and 1 OF as insurance.
I’m actually shocked by the degree to which no one in the league buys into the legitimacy of Crawford as a top 10, quality SS that is worth keeping at $8 given the depth at the position. He’s a high .700 OPS type at a weak position. He wouldn’t be expendable but for how crazy good correa is for me and my backup of Espinosa/Lawrie on the bench for MI
Sure, Crawford is worth $8 to keep. That’s about it. In which case, you can expect to receive a player comparable to Crawford in return.
At no point did I say you need offense. I said none of those proposed trades would affect your place in the standings re: offense. It’s relief pitching you need and it’s relief pitching I offered.
You also need to consider I’m not a short-minded person. I value the money I can win placing high in 2016 too (as well as having a good, still-cheap core for 2017). Anything can happen, and flags fly forever, but I’m focused on maintaining/building a sustainably competitive core.
What’s stopping you from placing high next year with Stanton and Giles instead of say Bryant and Carrasco? Nothing. You can afford to keep them.
Dollar considerations. I get a lot more bang for my buck with the guys you want, allowing me to make the overpays I want on draft day.
This first comment is meaningless Jeff. Either I don’t understand what you’re trying to say or you’ve just made something up. PV for FV is NEVER a 1 for 1 exchange. Never. Not in fantasy baseball, not in anything else. And the reason why is a nice four syllable word: uncertainty.
I am giving you a trade offer that substantially increases your chances of winning. By a very large margin. That is, by definition, a fair trade. It’s a mathematical identity. Your only possible grievance is if you believe the offer does not improve your chances of winning or else does not improve it enough to forgo a modest hit to your future odds of winning. You’ve never argued either point.
You don’t understand what he’s saying.
The 1 for 1 that he referred to is present value, and he’s correct. Bryant, Correa, and Carrasco for Stanton, Chapman and Giles would be a pretty fair trade in a redraft league, and your estimates at final standings percentages are ridiculous. If you want to gain the future value, you have to give a lot more than that in present value.
Ok, I get the first point.
Not sure why the estimates are ridiculous though. They’re couched in the math of our particular league standings. Assuming Giles becomes closer and all players involved perform to their projections, Team A gains 4 points in saves and 1-2 each in K, ERA, and WHIP. A couple of those are at the expense of the teams immediately ahead and behind him. His chance of winning goes from very low to very high.
The assumptions can prove invalid, but we have to make them if we want to put a single set of numbers on this. We could also relax the assumptions by setting a range, but the end result would be comparable. (and it’s more work).
What’s more, if Team A doesn’t execute a trade for these players, the current point leader probably will. At which point Team A loses all hope of victory.
You need to offer me more present value for my future value, or there is no point in making the trade. If the 2015 value is too close, and i’m giving up the 2016+ value, there is no net benefit to me. The only potential keeper in that mix is Stanton, and given what most players in our league cost, he’s a marginal one-year keeper, regardless of your value projections. Even if he’s worth $65, if no one pays more than $50 for a player, you’re wasting $14 ($65-($50+1))
I view your offer akin to the Reds going to the Astros and saying, hey, give me Correa, Singleton, and McHugh for Cueto, Chapman and Byrd.
Giles is also a keeper at $15. Based on the market value of closers in our league, he’s a $22 pitcher once he’s actually the closer. This could just be a one-year blip, but I suspect it reflects the preferences of most of our owners.
That’s not the best analogy. It’s like the Reds making that offer when comparable players to Correa are a). free and b). between .5 and 1 year from the majors.
Giles has no value to me other than as a ratios guy and flier for saves who might not even close. I dont value him as a keeper, and $15 is an awful steep price for a guy like him anyways. You’re overdiscounting future value. Bryant is $8 in 2016, $15 in 2017, $22 in 2018, etc. He’s worth much much more than $43 stanton and more than $43 stanton plus a closer.
You should rename this column ‘Let Me Tell You About My Awesome Fantasy Team’ or ‘Check Out This Sweet Trade I’m Trying To Make’ or ‘I Know More About Player Valuation Than You’
And this is why I asked for feedback, these topics seem well-received, but I can only judge this based on comments and page views. If people want other topics, they have to let it be known.
$8 Bryant for $43 Stanton + unkeepable Chapman + one more small pitching upgrade seems close to fair value. In my opinion.