The Daily Grind: Too Many Pitcher Bargains

Those looking for a good stream in which to bathe tomorrow will have to settle for merely acceptable options. For Friday, July 13, I identify eight pitchers and 10 hitters to target in the latest Streaming Wars.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. German Marks

1. The Daily Grind Invitational

I usually avoid Coors Field games because they’re expensive and over-rostered. Yesterday, I waded into the fray and – despite a total of 21 runs scored –  somehow whiffed. Fourseasons didn’t miss the mark. He tallied 237.3 points – possibly an Invitational best (I don’t keep track). His lowest point total came via Brett Gardner. Only two other players scored fewer than 20 points. Congrats and Leaderboard.

We’re doing our usual 52-entry, $2 no rake GPP on FantasyDraft. A couple reminders. 1. You may enter twice. B. Entries typically come with an expected value of about $2.80, thus you should enter the maximum.

If you have not signed up for FantasyDraft, please use this referral link for tracking purposes. If I understand properly, by using the referral, you will receive a 10 percent return on any rakes you pay.

2. Weather Reports

Minnesota is at serious risk of postponement this evening. Monitor accordingly.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Main Slate: The evening contest features seven games headlined by Max Scherzer. He’s a surprisingly affordable $25,600 for a game I have projected at a $28,000+ valuation. The Mets lineup is dog poo. Steven Matz won’t roll over for Scherzer, but he’s still more likely than not to earn the win bonus.

James Paxton is incorrectly priced as the next most expensive arm. Don’t get me wrong, I like Paxton – even when visiting a solid Angels team. However, I’m not paying $23,800 for him when Blake Snell, Luis Severino, Corey Kluber, and Ross Stripling are cheaper.

Sadly, Severino is visiting Kluber. Not only does this cancel out their usually elevated odds for a win, they’re also both facing tough offenses. Still both Severino ($21,100) and Kluber ($19,500) are priced as bargains. They should both be popular.

As much as I like Snell ($22,900), he’s only attractive when compared to Paxton. A matchup against the Twins is neutral or slightly better for Snell. However, I’m very much drawn to his opponent Kyle Gibson ($12,700). I project him to perform only slightly worse than Snell for over $10,000 less.

Stripling costs $17,800 versus the strikeout prone/bad Padres. Stripling has slowly regressed from ace-like performances to mere mid-rotation quality. While that profile is appropriately priced tonight, it fails to account for the juicy matchup. The Dodgers should tee off against Tyson Ross. He’s bad.

Jameson Taillon is hosting the Brewers at pitcher friendly PNC Park. Why he costs $10,900 is beyond me – he typically scores in the mid-teens with 30 point upside. This looks like a must-play to me. A lot of these pitchers are must-play. But we have only two slots.

Stack Targets: Ross

I could cast aspersions on J.A. Happ or David Price, but they deservedly belong in the forgotten mid-tier. Really, only Ross sucks tonight. Maybe Wade Miley who I thought was going to rebound this season but has instead spent all but one start on the disabled list.

4. SaberSim Says…

Scherzer, Kluber, Stripling, Severino, and Snell are the Sim’s favorites. Sounds about right to me. Taillon is sixth on the list. He’s also the second best value after Miley. Steven Matz, Stripling, and Kluber round out the value list. Scherzer is the sixth best value. So Taillon and Scherzer are the combo to beat?

Max Muncy, Cody Bellinger, Mike Trout, Joc Pederson, and Trea Turner top the charts. The Sim also hates Ross. Turner benefits from facing a stolen base prone team. Trout is Trout. The values are slop – Mitch Garver, David Freese, Robbie Grossman, and Kevin Kiermaier are the current top four. Yuck.

5. German Marks

Something is backwards here.

The thing about low ball mashers is that you shouldn’t hang low curve balls to them.

An All Star Performance.

(that’s Tim Tebow)