The Daily Grind: Thin Thursday Report

Want a choice of 13 streamable pitchers? Check out Streaming Wars. Is 13 an unlucky number? Does this mean any player you pick up is damned to fail. Of course.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. A Trio

1. The Daily Grind Invitational

Last night, rojito edged out the competition in a closely contested Invitational. His surprisingly competent Heath Fillmyer was the difference maker. Not only did Fillmyer post rojito’s top score, he opened the door for a roster with Giancarlo Stanton, J.D. Martinez, Bryce Harper, and Christian Yelich. Congrats and Leaderboard.

It’s a small slate tonight with our usual 52 entry contest on FantasyDraft. I expect a big overlay. Make sure you take advantage.

If you have not signed up for FantasyDraft, please use this referral link for tracking purposes. If I understand properly, by using the referral, you will receive a 10 percent return on any rakes you pay.

2. Weather Reports

Sound the all clear.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Early Slate: The wee three game early slate features five solid pitchers. And Robbie Erlin. Corey Kluber ($21,400) is the chief. He’s partially cancelled out by Jose Berrios ($17,800). Kluber is definitely favored to win, but it’s by no means automatic.

The Anibal Sanchez ($16,100) at Gio Gonzalez ($12,000) game figures to be a popular pairing with Kluber or Berrios. While Sanchez is seemingly the better pitcher these days – courtesy of a low hard contact rate – Gonzalez is more likely to earn the win. They’re much more evenly matched than their price suggests. Since it’s a small slate, that actually pushes me towards Sanchez since his ownership should be lower.

Junior Guerra ($14,500) has the softest matchup of the available arms. He’ll face the strikeout prone Padres. Guerra is a good value at this price even without the easy opponent.

Stack Targets: Erlin, Sanchez, Gonzalez, Guerra

By virtue of being a tiny contest, most pitcher double as “to use” and “to target.”

Late Slate: Much like the early slate, top arm Justin Verlander ($23,700) is instantly canceled out by James Paxton ($20,400). Although Paxton has the more difficult matchup, the $3,300 price difference probably covers the gap.

Rick Porcello ($19,500) has turned pricey after  a complete game gem against the Yankees next week. The Blue Jays are a far easier opponent. That said, on July 13 Porcello was dinged for eight runs in just two innings versus the Jays. He’s not my preferred choice for the third best pitcher, but he’s definitely playable. Few pitchers average as many innings per start.

J.A. Happ is returning from hand, foot, and mouth disease. I’d be surprised if he isn’t handed six runs of support against a bad Rangers starter and bullpen. It’s a strikeout prone lineup too, although their streaky bats are hot at the moment. For just $17,900, his ownership could approach 70 percent.

If you didn’t like those four, it’s only going to go downhill. Ross Stripling ($14,500) is visiting Tyler Anderson ($11,700) in the danger zone. Since it’s a Coors Field game, both pitchers are interesting for deep GPP purposes purely because the venue attracts offensive investment. If either pitcher does well, you benefit from an unpopular arm AND your competitor’s offense failing.

The other place to look is cold Andrew Suarez ($10,200) hosting boring Ivan Nova ($9,100). Nova in particularly is ludicrously cheap versus a bottom 10 offense at a top one ballpark for pitchers.

Stack Targets: Ariel Jurado, David Hess, Hunter Wood, Ryan Borucki

Borucki is going to allow nine runs one of these days… I’ve lost track of whoever is going to follow Wood’s cameo start.

4. SaberSim Says…

Velander, Kluber, Guerra, Paxton, and Happ are the top arms across the two slates. Adds up to me. Suarez, Nova, Guerra, and Gonzalez are the most playable values. Fans of hitters should look to Stanton, Mookie Betts, Martinez, Charlie Blackmon, and Manny Machado. Bargain hunters may aim for Brandon Lowe, Greg Bird, Stanton, Jonathan Villar, and Chris Davis.

5. A Trio

Stanton is the chalkiest bargain in the wide wide world. He’s been inexplicably priced like a Hunter Pence for weeks.

Rafael Devers looks very good when the opponent tosses him a hanging breaking ball.

He’s, uh, not slowing down.