The Daily Grind: Thin Splitties

~I’m all I want to be, a walking study, in demonology.~

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. Proposed Schedule of Pitcher Suspensions for Intentional Beanings

1.The Daily Grind Invitational

Cubbieblues found budget for chalky Cole Hamels and Carlos Carrasco. They combined for 74.7 of 172.2 points. Brandon Lowe and Ji-Man Choi did some heavy lifting too. Congrats and Leaderboard.

We’re back to the usual 7:05 start time for tonight’s five-game slate. As usual, $2 and no rake on FantasyDraft.

If you have not signed up for FantasyDraft, please use this referral link for tracking purposes. If I understand properly, by using the referral, you will receive a 10 percent return on any rakes you pay.

2. Weather Reports

Detroit will have to dodge some rain clouds today. Delays are possible.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Early: Four games are in the early slate. Unfortunately, this also includes two of the best pitcher plays. Patrick Corbin ($19,600) is perhaps the most must-use pick I’ve seen all season. For just $19,600 you get him hosting the lowly Giants. Huge odds for a win bonus, over a strikeout per inning, and generally fantabulous production. A fade-play of Drew Pomeranz ($15,000) might be too obvious.

Mike Soroka ($17,700) is back. Usually I’d say he’s overpriced for what has to be something like a 75 to 90 pitch count outing. Given the thin slate, you can use him! Following a similar thought process, I’d usually avoid Luke Weaver ($14,700) against the Braves. However, I think Weaver is better than his performances and could return some value today.

Michael Pineda ($15,900) hosts Clay Buchholz ($12,000). Both sides of this one look like major value plays. I might even consider using them together, a fringe-strategy I usually leave to the tryhards.

Favorite Plays: Buchholz, Corbin, Pineda

Stack Targets: Tyson Ross, Ivan Nova, Pomeranz

Late: This one is for all the marbles. Well… first place gets $22 of marbles (less $2 entry). Chris Paddack ($17,500) is the priciest pitcher available. That’s cheap! There’s just one major red flag for us to discuss – Paddack has averaged less than five innings through three starts. He’s still posted nice point totals. Can you imagine if he turns in a six inning appearance? The Reds offense is playing like a neutral opponent.

Tanner Roark ($14,700) is throwing more sliders this year which might explain an uptick in his strikeout rate. Or it’s just a fluke. His stuff is pedestrian. He’s at his best when he’s inducing piles of soft contact. Through three starts, he’s getting smacked around this year. This is a lovely 50/50 target, but I foresee a lack of ceiling GPPs.

It’s Ryan Yarbrough ($14,400) day via Hunter Wood ($8,000). That price is a tad rich for Yarbrough in my opinion – enough to scare away the plebs. I like this as a potentially underowned and creative play. The Orioles choose Trashner. Trashner uses Meatball. It’s not very effective.

Julio Urias ($15,300) has a tricky assignment against Zach Davies ($14,000) and the Brewers. It’s dangerous on both sides of the aisle. Speaking of danger, I’d usually want to use Zach Eflin ($14,000) or Kyle Freeland ($11,900), especially at these prices. Alas, Coors Field spoils the dream. Freeland’s so cheap that he’s actually playable against the Phillies juggernaut. Jean Segura and Odubel Herrera are banged up.

Favorite Plays: Yarbrough, Paddack, Roark

Stack Targets: Felix Hernandez, Chris Stratton, Andrew Cashner,

4. SaberSim Says…

Corbin, Pinega, Soroka, Roark, and Nova are the top rated pitchers today. As expected, we have an early-slate skew for pitchers. Unexpectedly, Roark rates higher than Paddack. Valuetown is haunted by Corbin, Freeland, Roark, Stratton, and Pineda.

Those seeking hats for bats should try Mike Trout, Austin Meadows, Charlie Blackmon, Rhys Hoskins, and Cody Bellinger. Franmil Reyes, Dustin Peterson, Kole Calhoun, Brian Dozier, and Scott Kingery are among the best values.

5. Proposed Schedule of Pitcher Suspensions for Intentional Beanings

Earlier today, I proposed a, well, read the section heading. The league is going to address bean balls sometime in the near future. They won’t have a choice. Especially since we’ve seemingly reached an inflection point where nearly every batter is going to pimp nearly big fly ball.

My personal approach is to disincentivize without removing entirely. I don’t view an outright ban as a practical solution.