The Daily Grind: The Times Are Late

So I was looking over some real MLB stuff and… the Reds are kind of sneaky good, aren’t they? Most of their hitters are underperforming, the team is 15-21, and yet they also have a +21 run differential – fourth best in the National League. Now imagine Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, and Yasiel Puig actually hitting (to say nothing of Blackhole Peraza). That team could ruin some hopes and dreams in the NL Central.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. Walk It Off

1.The Daily Grind Invitational

The secret to life on earth was a combination of Jorge Polanco, Max Muncy, Eddie Rosario, and two of the several good pitchers. Our leader mmddyyyy combined these basic amino acids in the right order to win the contest. Congrats and Leaderboard.

Our DFS host has opted for a late-start to our contest tonight. See you at 7:45pm ET for a four-game slate on FantasyDraft.

If you have not signed up for FantasyDraft, please use this referral link for tracking purposes. If I understand properly, by using the referral, you will receive a 10 percent return on any rakes you pay.

2. Weather Reports

Some maybe light rain in Detroit and possible flurries in Colorado offer a slight blemish on the early slate. We don’t care about those games, do we?

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Early: The five game early slate features a Carlos Carrasco atop the price list. For $19,500, you too can roster a bunch of strikeouts and hopefully not a bunch of home runs too. This is the chalkiest play I’ve seen in weeks as the rest of this pitching slate is an atrocity.

Yu Darvish costs $18,600 just because he has a friendly matchup against the Miamis. The wind is blowing out to right field. Sometimes it switches direction mid-afternoon. Darvish can’t seem to find the plate with any regularity. Nor does he appear to give a crap about all the walks. On the plus side, a healthy strikeout rate offers some upside and floor. If the wind was blowing in, I’d prefer Trevor Richards for $15,000. Alas, he’s practically unplayable with all the left-handed fly ball hitters in that Cubs offense.

Chris Bassitt ($17,000) has impressive results through three starts. I see no signs to suggest he’s any different from the spot starter we’ve occasionally witnessed over the last half decade. Bassitt does have a penchant for surviving his outings though. I’d rather not take a chance on Tanner Roark ($14,900) against a bad-fastball mashing team like the Athletics.

Felix Pena ($14,700) is rather attractive at Detroit. He often struggles to finish five innings, but if he does, a win and a strikeout per inning are likely. After a shady start to the season, he seems to be back in top form. Which isn’t to say he’s a stud or anything. Pena’s top form is in the neighborhood of “hey! he’s a guy!”

Yesterday’s Giants-Rockies game didn’t happen. Now you can choose from a cheap Kyle Freeland ($13,200) against the terribad Giants or a cheap Derek Holland ($10,900) opposite the sorta bad Rockies. Both are good values.

Favorite Plays: Carrasco, Pena, Freeland

Stack Targets: Holland, Ryan Carpenter, Roark, Manny Banuelos

Late: Oh, here are all of the pitchers. Sadly, the four-game contest on FDraft leaves out the Mariners-Yankees game.

Rich Hill ($18,700) is the top priced arm, but I’m not hesitating to select Patrick Corbin ($17,600) first. Yes, the Dodgers offense is terrifying. The Nationals lineup is no pushover either. The Dodghists have a long history of struggling against top left-handed pitchers (they’ve technically played well against southpaws this season). Corbin also offers a lofty strikeout rate which confers a certain degree of ceiling and floor. Hill is a good play too, but he’s definitely second fiddle.

I’m not all aboard the Mike Minor train. For me, $17,000 versus the Astros is a HARD pass. Except, well, this is a four-game slate so it’s truly all hands on deck. Maybe Minor is a contrarian play? I think, probably, too many people have bought into his hot start which includes roughly zero indication of a breakout. In fact, I’ll lock in at least one share of Wade Miley ($13,500) in tonight’s Invitational right now. He doesn’t offer many strikeouts, but the Rangers are crap nuggets against lefties. And Miley has a sub-3.50 ERA since becoming a cutter specialist.

Mike Soroka ($17,600) has that magical blend of whiffs, low walks, and contact-quality prevention. There’s an ace hiding just beneath the surface. And while not every pitcher of this profile pans out (see Wacha, Michael), it makes sense for him to be very popular in the visit to the middling DBacks. Luke Weaver ($15,300) is a lovely contrarian play. The challenge Atlanta offense and Soroka should scare off a decent chunk of his prospective ownership. Four of his last five outings have gone for 23 or more points including a 31.35 point gem at Coors Field.

Last up are Joe Musgrove ($14,800) and Michael Wacha ($14,600). And wouldya look at that? They’re both aggressively priced! I expect many combinations Soroka with one of this pair. Wacha has struggled with command and home runs, suggesting he might be the best stack target.

Favorite Plays: Corbin, Soroka, Miley, Weaver

Stack Targets: Wacha?

4. SaberSim Says…

I’m setting our simulator to “all day.” Corbin, Carrasco, Hill, Darvish, and J.A. Happ are the preferred arms. Corbin, Holland, Happ, Hill, and Musgrove are the values. Good to see the Sim shares my enthusiasm for Corbin. I guess that means I should fade.

Mikael Trout, Fredrick Freeman, Alexikov Bregman, Ronaldo Acuna, and Antonio Rizzonius III are the top rated bats. Curtis Granderson, Tyler White, Brian Anderson, Ronald Acuna, and Starlin Castro are the best bargains.

5. Walk It Off

Jason Heyward has forgotten how bad he is.

Here comes… Dr. Tran Jose Ramirez.

SEED!

And a fourth… Not so fast!

Friggin’ grand slams…