The Daily Grind: The Quarter Pole

We’re at the quarter-pole of the season. Many of you are panicking because your traditional fantasy or daily fantasy performances aren’t up to snuff. I’m here to remind you… Don’t Panic Part 2: Production Is Lumpy.

AGENDA

  1. TDG Invitational
  2. Weather Reports
  3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
  4. SaberSim Says…
  5. Let’s Ignore The Homers

1.The Daily Grind Invitational 

Justin Verlander, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Trout, and Chris Davis (yes, that Davis) were the top performers in brewday’s very solid lineup. Davis was 23 percent owned in the Invitational. Wowza. Congrats and Leaderboard.

We have a six-game contest tonight on FantasyDraft. As per the usual, $2 entry and no rake.

If you have not signed up for FantasyDraft, please use this referral link for tracking purposes. If I understand properly, by using the referral, you will receive a 10 percent return on any rakes you pay.

2. Weather Reports

The Orioles-Yankees game looks doomed for postponement. A dumb half an hour early start time had already excluded it from the slate. The Brewers-Phillies game might have a slightly delayed start.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Robbie Ray is correctly priced at $19,400. The most expensive pitcher of the slate is opposed by the Pirates, a team with a 60 wRC+ and 28 percent strikeout rate against southpaw pitchers. Ray, despite declining velocity, has over 11.00 K/9. The Pirates starter, Nick Kingham, probably won’t finish five innings. Everything is in alignment for a big score from Ray. Or maybe he’ll walk the world instead.

This lesser-command version of Aaron Nola ($18,000) doesn’t feel like a healthy play against the Brewers at Citizen’s Bank Park. Nola has shown some small signs of gradual improvement though. He’s opposed by Freddy Peralta ($13,500) who will probably continue his trend of extreme scores. It’s pretty much impossible for a pitcher projection to be trough shaped (meaning we expect more high/low scores than medium). Peralta comes damned close.

Poor Jose Berrios ($17,900) is priced to move. It’s unfortunate he’s facing the Angels, a team that doesn’t strike out. Without strikeouts, it’s a challenge to reach the 18 points needed to return value on this price tag. It’s not a bad idea to roster a few shares anyway – just in case he rings up Shohei Ohtani thrice. Tyler Skaggs is interesting for just $14,400. The southpaw tends to keep the ball in the park and records about a strikeout per inning. The Twins can be a difficult pairing. Nelson Cruz is probably out.

Matthew Boyd ($16,800) is having a wonderful season, albeit without much sign of an actual breakout. Peaking under the covers, he has every appearance of a typical mid-tier southpaw who also has frequent, positive value matchups. This is not one of those days opposite the Astros. However, the rough pairing is priced in, making him more than playable in a thin slate. I’d rather use Boyd than Brad Peacock ($15,900), partly because I have my eye on a few Tigers hitters as bargain plays.

Mike Fiers ($15,300) no-hit the Reds last week. This shouldn’t affect your expectations versus the Mariners. He’s a pitch-to-contact core performer who doesn’t consistently offer enough strikeouts to be a wise choice. I steer clear of Yusei Kikuchi ($14,600) due to highly uncertain usage.

Reynaldo Lopez ($13,800) is my preferred bargain in today’s slate. He’ll typically throw around six mediocre innings with a strikeout per frame. He should project for around 15 points. Of course, Shane Bieber ($17,700) is a better pitcher and has an easier matchup. His fly ball traits aren’t a great fit for Guaranteed Home Run Rate Field

Favorite Plays: Ray, Boyd, Lopez, Bieber

Stack Targets: Peralta, Fiers, Kingham

4. SaberSim Says…

Ray, Bieber, Berrios, Boyd, and Peacock carry the top projections. For value, look to Bieber, Ray, Lopez, Boyd, and Peacock. It’s strange how DraftKings (and FantasyDraft) continue to price the best pitchers as the best values. Mike Trout, David Peralta, Christian Yelich, Jarrod Dyson (???), and Alex Bregman are the hitters to click. Zack Cozart, Jesus Aguilar, Francisco Cervelli, Marwin Gonzalez, and Jung Ho Kang are the heftiest values.

5. Let’s Ignore The Homers

Nothing feels worse… Also, I think he was safe.

Guy has a cannon for an arm.

I wonder if these complete games might catch on?

We hoped you liked reading The Daily Grind: The Quarter Pole by Brad Johnson!

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Doug
Member
Member
Doug

I think the Strasburg one was so close, I can’t see the replay overturning the call either way.

Damn, Vladito looks like daddy. Of course, if he knew how to stand up , he wouldn’t have NEEDED the cannon arm.

Matthew
Member
Member
Matthew

Slow on the transfer to throw hand too.