The Daily Grind: The Price Is Wrong by Brad Johnson April 1, 2019 The Padres caught a lucky break over the weekend when news emerged that Eric Hosmer faked his age and is actually a 32-year-old. He previously claimed to be 29. It’s thought the deception will allow the Padres to invalidate his contract, perhaps freeing up money to pursue the next Manny Machado-sized opportunity. AGENDA TDG Invitational Weather Reports Pitchers to Use and Abuse SaberSim Says… Unclutch 1.The Daily Grind Invitational There was no Invitational on Friday as we work out the Spring Training kinks. My resources at FantasyDraft haven’t spoken up today so let’s do a tune up game on DraftKings. I’ve set it to $2 and 30 entries. Please note, the prices listed below are for FDraft. If you have not signed up for FantasyDraft, please use this referral link for tracking purposes. If I understand properly, by using the referral, you will receive a 10 percent return on any rakes you pay. 2. Weather Reports Well, it won’t be rainy. It will, however, be bitterly cold in Pittsburgh and Cleveland. New York and Cincinnati are rather chilly too. Good news though – these games aren’t really included in any of the main slates. The evening contests are at much warmer locales. 3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse David Price ($19,600) is the priciest pitcher. Working in his favor is a long history of success and solid production. When compared to the alternatives in this slate, it’s clear Price offers the best combination of ceiling and floor. That said, he’s maybe the fifth best option by projected output. Play it safe by using him in 50/50s. I will be looking elsewhere in most GPPs. He faces a tricky Athletics lineup. Matt Strahm ($18,000) has been aggressively priced. Ludicrously so. While this is around where we might hope he’ll perform when in midseason form, Strahm has never experienced the success necessary to justify this price tag. He’s reportedly on a pitch count too. As much as I like his matchup against the Diamondbacks, the pitcher to tab in this game is Merrill Kelly ($12,800). He should be expected to perform similarly for two-thirds the price. Julio Urias ($16,900) is my choice for most popular belle of the ball. The Dodgers are hosting the pitiful Giants offense. I suspect Urias is on a pitch count, although I’ve seen no confirmation. On the plus side for San Francisco, I’m hearing good things about Drew Pomeranz ($13,800). I still wouldn’t touch him versus the Dodgers. A knee injury to Clayton Richard means prospect Sean Reid-Foley ($16,300) gets a spot start versus the worst team in recent memory (ahem, the 2019 Orioles). Once again, I’m a little offput by the aggressive price tag. The potential for a pitch count looms once again. Steven Matz ($15,800) at Caleb Smith ($14,500) looks like the rubber match of the day. Both pitchers are popular breakout candidates this year. Matz obviously has the easier side of this matchup. The Marlins offense versus left-handed pitchers consists of Brian Anderson. Anybody not using Urias will probably have Matz. By comparison, the Mets lineup is fairly stout. Smith has his work cut out for him, although I do think he can emerge on top. He should cost less than $14,500. Brad Peacock (15,000) could be a steal versus the Rangers. Sean Newcomb ($15,700) is hosting Kyle Hendricks ($14,500). All three are playable, although I fear the Cubs and Braves lineups. Get ready for Opener Day. Ryne Stanek is expected to start ahead of Ryan Yarbrough ($11,700). While the unimpressive southpaw tracked down 16 wins with this Follower role last season, I do not expect a repeat. I suspect he’ll be overused, but I might be giving the DFS-verse too much credit for being overly clever. Favorite Plays: Matz, Urias, Reid-Foley Stack Targets: Aaron Brooks, David Hess, Chad Bettis, Drew Smyly, Felix Hernandez, Yarbrough, Chris Stratton I can’t believe Hess is still hanging around Baltimore. I’m legitimately interested to see Smyly tonight. 4. SaberSim Says… Urias, Reid-Foley, Matz, Price, and Peacock are the top-rated pitchers – exactly how I drew it up. I do think Strahm is getting undersold in the price-blind analysis. Kelly, Urias, Hendricks, Hess, and Reid-Foley are the top values. Although the Blue Jays were no hit for half of two games, I still can’t imagine a scenario where I’d use Hess. Alex Bregman, Mike Trout, Jose Altuve, J.D. Martinez, and Mookie Betts is a list of very good players. They’re also the top five projected bats tonight. Valueland is headlined by Pete Alonso, J.D. Davis, Austin Meadows, Adam Jones, and Michael Reed. Reed is expected to bat leadoff for the Giants. To date, he’s 0-for-7 with five strikeouts. I might look… elsewhere. 5. Unclutch The headline reads “Yelich clutch for Brew Crew.” I’m feeling quite unclutch after intentionally fading Yelich all offseason long. His second half performance featured unprecedented peripherals. And he’s picked up right where he left off. I still stand behind my choice to fade, but I do wish I had a share or three just as a hedge.