The Daily Grind: The Penultimate Freeroll

Just a little programming note… I won’t be doing First Take videos on Wednesdays. I’m too busy.

AGENDA

  1. TDG Invitational
  2. Weather Reports
  3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
  4. SaberSim Says…
  5. One-sided brawl

1. The Daily Grind Invitational

Only one person used Matt Adams. I was surprised. When he showed up in the three-hole for the Nationals, I thought he’d be the overplayed scrub of the day. Not only was Adams underplayed, he also scored 35 points for claw11x, the winner of yesterday’s contest!

We’re doing the same freeroll format for two more days. Yesterday, we had 125 entries. Let’s try to fill today’s 150 entry contest on FantasyDraft. Remember, you’re allowed to enter two free rosters.

If you have not signed up for FantasyDraft, please use this referral link for tracking purposes. If I understand properly, by using the referral, you will receive a 10 percent return on any rakes you pay.

2. Weather Reports

We should be clear tonight. If you’re playing an afternoon contest, double check reports for St. Louis and Chicago. There’s a low risk of storms.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Early Slate: Six games are in the early slate. Most of the pitchers appear to be usable. Corey Kluber ($25,600) is the king in what should be an easy win against the Rangers. Carlos Martinez ($21,100) is a superb alternative ace. I’m also heavily buying Blake Snell ($18,700) against softer opponents like the Tigers. That’s a cheap price.

Watch out for Yu Darvish ($15,900) and Tyler Anderson ($13,500). It’s a third straight wind-blowing-out day at Wrigley. They’re pure contrarian picks as a result.

Michael Fulmer ($14,600) is a solid pitcher. The Rays offense has been performing well lately, but it’s not the most talented collection of vagabonds. Elsewhere, perhaps Fernando Romero ($9,200) will flummox the Blue Jays in his major league debut. The scouting report credits him with high velocity, bowling ball stuff.

Stack Targets: Lucas Giolito, Matt Moore, Danny Duffy, Anderson, Drew Pomeranz

Pomeranz is probably a surprise inclusion here considering he’s opposed by the Royals. I’ve been known to call them feckless. Pomeranz is missing three mph on his fastball. He’s a spin rate guy, and it’s just not going to work well at this lower speed. If there’s a positive, it’s that the Royals basically don’t have good right-handed hitters.

Main Slate: The night crew runs eight games deep and includes even more high quality arms. First, a nod to Sean Newcomb ($14,900) who juked me yesterday. What I said still applies – a strikeout per inning plus high variance.

Zack Godley ($15,000) only plays the Dodgers. So far, he’s tossed a gem and a dud against them. The newly Seagerless Codgers no longer look like an automatic bid for the postseason.

I promised aces though… Those are Jacob deGrom ($22,400), Stephen Strasburg ($21,200), Aaron Nola ($19,700), and Luis Severino ($17,700). The latter name is the latest pitcher who could serve as a valuable contrarian pick. While others play the obvious Strasburg or Nola, Severino has just as much ability. Sadly, he’s opposed by a tough Astros lineup. Charlie Morton and Justin Verlander have performed well in a similar scenario the last two days.

Hyun-Jin Ryu ($17.300) has four straight strong outings with seven or more strikeouts. The Diamondbacks lineup is middle-heavy. Basically, it’s A.J. Pollock, Paul Goldschmidt, and some other guys. How are they 21-8?

Dylan Bundy, James Paxton, Dallas Keuchel, and Andrew Heaney are cheaper alternative targets if you need a warm body who isn’t drawing dead.

Stack Targets: Brett Anderson, Jose Urena, Wade Miley, Luis Castillo, Ivan Nova

You’ll notice Castillo listed as a stack target. I think he could use a stint in the minors to regain some command. He’s gone from attacking to nibbling. Urena could be a surprise solid performer. That’s just who he is – there’s always a one-third chance he’ll post a 20 point outing.

4. SaberSim Says…

deGrom, Strasburg, Godley, Nola, and Paxton are the top arms for the night slate. Urena, Heaney, and Castillo head up valueland. Bryce Harper, Ryan Braun, Nelson Cruz, Giancarlo Stanton, and Trea Turner draw top marks among the hitters. Wilmer Flores, Matt Adams, Adam Duvall, and Domingo Santana are some of the values.

5. One-sided brawl

The payoff comes a little under a minute into the video…

I had to use this guy in my 20 team dynasty league. He’s filling in for my Adrian Beltre.

Free Walker.





You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam

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Moranall
5 years ago

> Basically, it’s A.J. Pollock, Paul Goldschmidt, and some other guys. How are they 21-8?

David Peralta: 148 wRC+
Nick Ahmed: 129 wRC+
Daniel Descalso: 113 wRC+

The Diamondbacks have more decent hitters than people realize.

abailey
5 years ago
Reply to  Brad Johnson

Well, Peralta is, certainly.

Moranall
5 years ago
Reply to  Brad Johnson

xwOBA

Nick Ahmed: .322 (~100 wRC+)
David Peralta: .361 (~130 wRC+)
Daniel Descalso: .384 ( ~140 wRC+)

Ahmed retooled his swing for more flyballs and to stop swinging at low pitches. Peralta was already an average (or better) hitter. I don’t know of any changes Descalso made (haven’t looked) but he’s been hitting the ball hard all season.

The Diamondbacks are 4th in the NL in runs/game and that’s with no Lamb/Souza and a .923 park factor at Chase Field so far this season per ESPN (the only site I see calculating 2018 so far).

Maybe they won’t continue their current paces (unlikely) but that doesn’t mean they’re still bad hitters, either. Things change and that’s why this site exists.

Anon
5 years ago
Reply to  Moranall

The Dbacks are doing it with pitching and defense. With Peralta sitting last night (Kershaw), the DBacks started 4 natural SS (AHmed, Marte, Owings, Marrero) and are regularly starting 3 most games. Once Lamb and Souza get back it will drop to 2 but they should also get more offense.