The Daily Grind: The Missing Link

It’s Friday baseball – 15 games, one contest.

AGENDA

  1. The Missing Link
  2. Weather Reports
  3. Perfect Lineup
  4. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
  5. SaberSim Says…
  6. TDG Invitational Returns!

1. The Missing Link

I’ve discovered the missing link. If you’ve followed my column closely, you may have noticed me lamenting my inability to accurately predict which good players would have low ownership rates. For any normal sized contest, somebody at each position is has at least a decent matchup and will be owned at a low rate.

RotoQL has the answer the answer. They call it Real Time Trending Players, and they charge an absurd $99/mo for the feature. It’s only available as part of their most expensive package.

If you’re interested in demoing the product, I ask that you use my affiliate link. I get $30 if you end up liking and buying the tool. I wouldn’t be discussing RotoQL here if I wasn’t excited about this particular feature.

Here are three large GPP lineups I constructed with the help of the tool.

In this one, I wanted a Nationals stack against Kevin Gausman (whoops) coupled with some low ownership guys. There’s no need for every player to have low ownership.

Here, I found a bargain at Coors Field along with my favorite Yonder and a shockingly underused Mookie (among others). Why weren’t Red Sox at Miller Park 25 percent owned? See why I can’t predict this nonsense?

This was the least successful of the trio because too many players zeroed out. After I identified Christian Yelich as a guy I wanted versus a fly ball pitcher, RotoQL pushed me towards a low-owned Marlins stack. I knew the Brewers would have high ownership versus Kyle Kendrick. These two were among the least popular.

And here’s what the relevant portion of the tool looks like, using yesterday’s slate.

We’re interested in the, uh, “interest” column. Next to Nolan Arenado, it’s showing he’s 400 percent more popular than he “should be.” Admittedly, I’m not sure how they’re defining a normative phrase like “should be.” In this case, the projection column shows the actual results. Usually, I’d look at this and conclude that someone like Nick Castellanos will have a low ownership with mid-high point scoring ability.

The rest of the RotoQL tool is a standard lineup optimizer using in-house or PECOTA projections. The name brand stuff costs extra cashes. DraftKings users may be interested in the multi-lineup exporter which can auto-upload 500 or fewer lineups to multi-entry contests. It also simplified editing those lineups. Multi-lineup play ain’t for me.

Color me unimpressed by the lineup optimizer and projections. They suffer the same shortcomings as all the other tools on the market. In that sense, the $30/mo version of the product isn’t any better than SaberSim. I’ve always said, the information I need is expected ownership. I can self-optimize from there using internalized “projections.”

RotoQL is also the source of the perfect lineups that have appeared these last few days. I’m going to buy a $99 membership for the next month to continue testing the product. (It’s tax deductible for me). I’ll keep y’all in the loop. Remember, if you decide to give it a try yourself, use my affiliate link. There’s a no credit card free trial too.

2. Weather Reports

The Phillies and Nationals are getting postponed tonight. If yesterday was a rainout, tonight’s forecast is infinitely worse. Like it’s actually going to be raining. The rest of the league is free and clear.

3. Perfect Lineup

The following formed the perfect lineup on FanDuel last night. Notice the lack of Orioles and Nationals, two teams I targeted heavily.

Zack Greinke
James McCann
Mike Napoli
Chase Utley
Nolan Arenado
Eduardo Escobar
Steve Pearce
Ian Desmond
Denard Span

They scored 312.4 points. Sometimes, the perfect lineup looks borderline possible. No way anybody would ever roster this group.

4. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Main Slate: Clayton Kershaw only costs $9,800 on FanDuel tonight. There’s a reason named Coors Field. For this price, I’m mighty tempted to ignore the venue. Coors Field is definitely Kershaw’s worst venue, but he’s still posted strong numbers in 109 career innings.

Alternatively, Johnny Cueto is working at an actual pitchers venue against a solid Reds offense. Cincinnati is better built for their tiny home field than AT&T Park. A few of their hitters like Adam Duvall and Scott Schebler will struggle to adapt their home run swings to a too-large setting. Others, i.e. Billy Hamilton and Jose Peraza, will challenge Cueto with their speed.

Rick Porcello has thrown six gems and one disasterpiece. It was the Rays who previously dismantled him, and it’s the Rays he’ll face tonight. Personally, I’m predicting redemption for Porcello. The Rays do have quite a few potent lefty hitters, but Fenway Park reduces their power potential.

Lance McCullers is a solid GPP play due to his volatility and massive ceiling. One of these days, he’ll click for a 70 point outing on FanDuel. A matchup against a surprisingly potent Yankees lineup at unsurprisingly tiny Yankee Stadium is not a great time to bet upon McCullers. I also like his opponent Jordan Montgomery.

Dylan Bundy was bumped to tonight. His matchup has improved by leaps and bounds. Instead of facing Bryce Harper and Treat Earner, he’ll see Brandon Moss and Alcides Escobar. The game is at pitcher friendly Kauffman Stadium.

Among the bargains, Montgomery, Jesse Hahn, Miguel Gonzalez, Mike Foltynewicz, and Matt Shoemaker all look viable. I’d try to avoid reaching for pitchers below $7,200 in price.

Stack Targets: Christian Bergman, Eddie Butler, Nick Pivetta, Jose Urena, Tyler Glasnow, Tyler Chatwood, Andrew Cashner, Jhoulys Chacin, Alex Cobb, Josh Tomlin, Matt Garza, Jordan Zimmermann

5. SaberSim Says…

Porcello, Kershaw, McCullers, Danny Duffy, and Cueto are the top five ranked pitchers. While I’m going out of my way to avoid Duffy, I’m also not stacking against him. I just don’t have a good read on him at the moment.

I skipped the Hitter to Use section today because I spent too much time talking about RotoQL. The top ten hitters are Joc Pederson, Mookie Betts, Justin Turner, Corey Seager, Bryce Harper, Michael Conforto, Cody Bellinger, Jay Bruce, Yasiel Puig, and Yasmani Grandal. Surprise! Dodgers are valuable at Coors Field. A Mets stack seems viable too.

6. The Daily Grind Invitational

Fronski33 used Zack Greinke, Brandon Belt, Miguel Sano, and Steve Pearce to secure the victory. That’s 20 percent of the perfect lineup! Congrats! And also the leaderboard is updated.

We’re back on FanDuel tonight.





You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam

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oldschoolwaysmember
6 years ago

I wonder how they’re measuring “interest.” Instances of that particular guy being looked up on their site/locked into lineups which are then optimized around him? Seems like it’ll get you a read on what other RotoQL users are looking to do on Draftkings/Fanduel, but won’t necessarily go beyond that. Still probably a decent proxy.