The Daily Grind: The King, Ross, Reimold

Agenda

1. Maxwell Take Two
2. Daily DFS – A Bit Of Everything
3. GB / FB Splits
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Ross, Latos, Reimold, Jay
5. Factor Grid

1. Maxwell Take Two

Justin Maxwell is back in regular action after Hunter Pence and Gregor Blanco hit the skids with fresh injuries. We discussed Maxwell in early May. At the time, he was producing solid value by laying off pitches low in the zone. His swing is geared to murder high pitches. Here’s part of what Dan Farnsworth said about Maxwell.

I’ve always liked a lot of aspects of Maxwell’s swing. He uses his lower half well, he’s got a pretty good hand path; the only thing I could really pick apart is he can get a little too flat with his barrel over his shoulder as he starts his swing, making it sometimes get a little long and around the ball.

Dan expressed concern that pitchers could simply refuse to throw him high pitches. I checked his pitches seen, but I haven’t noticed a change in approach by pitchers. I think they already knew to avoid the top of the strike zone against Maxwell. Meanwhile, his plate discipline has completely eroded since we discussed him a month ago. Hopefully, getting back in the regular lineup will help.

He’s a solid streaming option against left-handed pitching. Owners in deep or NL-only leagues should consider rostering him outright.

2. Daily DFS – A Bit Of Everything

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: Fans of afternoon baseball can watch Johnny Cueto versus Jason Hammel at Wrigley Field. DFS owners can also watch the game, they just won’t be able to use it.

Late: That leaves us with 14 late games. It’s not an easy group. At the top are a batch of high value aces led by Felix Hernandez against the strikeout prone Astros. Head-to-head and 50/50 players might prefer Madison Bumgarner, Clayton Kershaw, or David Price in friendlier pitcher environs.

Beyond the studs, you’ll find Jordan Zimmermann against the lost Brewers. Jesse Chavez is a nice value play against the Angels. They continue to scuffle versus right-handed pitching. With the way the Red Sox are playing, a big night out of Drew Hutchison would be hardly surprising.

Further down the pitcher list, you’ll find some A+ stacking targets. The Rays against John Danks, Marlins versus Kyle Kendrick, and Rockies opposite Jose Urena would all be more attractive at a better stadium. Similarly, Kevin Correia makes his Phillies debut at Pittsburgh against Jeff Locke. Brett Oberholtzer and Tommy Milone are probably the most exploitable pitchers at hitter friendly parks.

In short, it’s a lottery day.

Stack Targets: Danks, Kendrick, Urena, Correia, Locke, Oberholtzer, Milone, Odrisamer Despaigne, Chase Anderson, Joe Kelly, Wandy Rodriguez, Mike Fiers, Bartolo Colon

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

We have 30 names for this particular split. Enjoy. The best:

Buster Posey and Justin Maxwell vs. Chase Anderson
J.D. Martinez and Miguel Cabrera vs. Danny Salazar
Adam Jones and Manny Machada vs. Michael Pineda
Kyle Blanks, Shin-Soo Choo, and Carlos Corporan vs. Tommy Milone
Jose Bautista vs. Joe Kelly
Austin Jackson, Rickie Weeks, and Willie Bloomquist vs. Brett Oberholtzer
Billy Butler and Brett Lawrie vs. Hector Santiago
Denard Span and Ryan Zimmerman vs. Mike Fiers

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Ross, Latos, Reimold, Jay

Pitchers to Start: Nationals prospect Joe Ross will make his second start of the season against the Brewers. It’s a friendly assignment for a young guy cutting his teeth. Ross was acquired from the Padres as part of that three-way Wil Myers trade. He has the stuff to post a decent strikeout rate and the command necessary to limit free passes.

Also consider: Kyle Hendricks, C.J. Wilson

Pitchers to Exploit: Mat Latos returns from the disabled list tomorrow. In one rehab start, he threw 4.2 innings with four strikeouts and five walks. Who wants to bet he’ll be rusty? When he landed on the disabled list, he had a 6.12 ERA and a 3.46 FIP.

Also consider: Sean O’Sullivan, Colby Lewis, Jeremy Guthrie, David Hale, CC Sabathia, Bud Norris, Josh Collmenter, Ryan Vogelsong, Kendall Graveman

Hitters (power): The Orioles recently summoned Nolan Reimold to the majors. The spell involved the ritual sacrifice of reliever Cesar Cabral via a process called “options.” Reimold has started two games since his recall and batted second yesterday versus a lefty. He’ll face Sabathia tomorrow.

Also consider: Mark Canha, Delmon Young, Steve Pearce, Garrett Jones, Gerardo Parra, Kennys Vargas

Hitters (speed): Jon Jay once stole 19 bases, but that was back in 2012. Now, he doesn’t do much base running at all. Part of the problem is opportunity – he has a measly .225/.303/.264 slash. You have to reach base to steal. He has a .257 BABIP whereas his career rate is .340. Expect league average production over the rest of the season in part time play. He’ll see fairly regular action while Matt Holliday is sidelined.

Also consider: Ender Inciarte, Angel Pagan, Jake Marisnick

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Quite a few storms risks today. None of them are a guaranteed wash. Keep an eye on Detroit, St. Louis, and Pittsburgh.

The Link. The stadiums skew pitcher friendly, but not so much that you’re left without options.

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