The Daily Grind: The Crawling Chaos

That song about rolling in the deep is a Cthulhuian chant and specifically invokes Nyarlathotep aka The Crawling Chaos.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. Stripling Quik-Analysis

1. The Daily Grind Invitational

Rainja182 snagged victory with a mix of pitching and power. Justin Verlander, Freddy Peralta, Matt Carpenter, and Miguel Andujar struck the biggest blows. Congrats and Leaderboard.

We have an interesting seven game slate tonight – storms threaten nearly half the slate. We’ll go 52 entries deep on FantasyDraft.

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2. Weather Reports

Cincinnati, Cleveland, New York, Pittsburgh, and Washington all have a storm risk. None are doomed to cancellation. None are safe. The first two listed venues are in the early slate. The other three are in the late slate.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Early Slate: Five games are in the early batch. Corey Kluber ($24,700) is cock of the walk. He’s hosting the strikeout prone White Sox for tea and crumpets. Smells like a great value to me.

J.A. Happ ($19,800) appears to be strongly favored versus the Braves. He’ll likely have to face not just one but two catchers. Lefty mashers. I’m going to call this par value. A ballsy bettor might triple-down on Anibal Sanchez ($13,800). I know I don’t have those kinds of stones.

It seems we’re still not sure what to make of Ross Stripling ($18,500). Is he an ace? He’s not priced like one. I can’t say I completely buy his majestic breakout. Since joining the rotation full time on May 6, he has a 1.53 ERA, 11.30 K/9 and 0.77 BB/9 in 47 innings. He’s only been slightly lucky according to ERA estimators (90 percent LOB%). I list my qualms in Section 5. He’s visiting Jon Lester ($16,800).

Michael Wacha is in Philly to give a clinic on inducing strikeouts. Maybe. He costs $14,900. That’s great value. Jake Arrieta isn’t always terrible. He tends to flop or fire 25 point performances. That plays in GPPs for $13,500.

Stack Targets: Reynaldo Lopez

Lopez is the only pitcher I’d aggressively target in this slate. Other seemingly exploitable pitchers have soft matchups.

Late Slate: Charlie Morton headlines our seven game evening contest. For $23,900, I’m not sure we want to roster the suddenly wild righty. Including hit batters, he’s walked 14 over his last 9.2 innings. Then again, he should fire up some strikeouts versus the Rays.

Gio Gonzalez ($19,700) has an easy fancy prance to victory opposite the Orioles. He’s struggled in two recent outings after a long run of high value appearances. I suddenly have a chalky taste in my mouth… That said, Baltimore isn’t terrible against left-handed pitching.

David Price ($18,800) is very Gio except without the benefit of facing a pitcher (or the Orioles). The Red Sox southpaw is a solid bet for acceptable production opposite the Twins. Lance Lynn ($13,000) is an interesting contrarian play. The Red Sox matchup isn’t ideal, but the righty seems to be in midseason form. I’ve never understood how he’s so effective with so little.

Uh… Brent Suter ($13,100) and Chad Kuhl ($14,600) are sometimes alright. They’re playing at pitcher friendly PNC Park. Can’t say I love either matchup beyond the ballpark.

Stack Targets: Austin Bibens-Dirkx, Andrew Cashner, Seth Lugo, Chad Bettis, Nate Eovaldi, Felix Hernandez, Lance Lynn, Jonathan Loaisiga

Oh, did I mention all of the stack targets are in the night crew? I would like Lugo versus the Rockies if not for pesky Coors Field.

4. SaberSim Says…

This is just for the evening slate. Morton, Kuhl, Gio, Price, and Jakob Junis top the charts. Kuhl, Suter, and scrubs are the preferred values. The big sticks belong to Mookie Betts, Charlie Blackmon, J.D. Martinez, Brandon Nimmo, and Nolan Arenado. Look to Brian Dozier, Kyle Seager, Kevin Kiermaier, and Adam Jones for bargains.

5. Ross Stripling Quik-Analysis

1. Currently more soft than hard contact. Nobody does this (well, Chris Sale is currently). I expect regression to include a massive increase in hard contact allowed.
2. Throws more offspeed pitches than fastballs.
3. (My) Scouting grades by pitch: FB 50, CH 55, SL 45, CB 55, command 60+
4. Actual performance by pitch: FB 75, CH 55, SL 55, CB 60
5. What #3 and #4 mean – when the fastball starts inducing appropriate results, the other stuff will become less effective. Importantly, the plus command of a four pitch repertoire supports a certain degree of overperformance on the stuff. Not to this level though. Mike Leake has plus command of an even deeper repertoire.
6. Most of his ground balls are on offspeed pitches. His fastball is a fly ball pitch which also explains the high-ish swinging strike rate on the heater.

Overall, I expect scouting reports to teach hitters to target their strengths. Low ball mashers should sit on the offspeed offerings while hitters with more level swings should jump on fastballs for premium launch angles. I anticipate a 15 percent HR/FB ratio (albeit a tame 1.05 HR/9), fewer strikeouts, and more walks. All told, something like 9.00 K/9, 2.25 BB/9, 1.05 HR/9, and a 3.60 ERA. Today’s matchup versus the Cubs is just the second “good” offense he’ll face since the start of May.