The Daily Grind: Syndergaard, Corbin, Verlander?

Agenda

1. Shocking Trades
2. Daily DFS – Syndergaard, Garcia, Godley
3. GB / FB Splits
4. Tomorrow’s Targets –
5. Factor Grid

1. Shocking Trades

The trade market is en fuego. You know how sometimes a broadcast will award the play of the game in the fifth inning. The swap of Troy Tulowitzki to the Blue Jays is the trade of the season. Not because of how it helps the Blue Jays or Rockies, it was so completely and utterly unexpected. Unfortunately, Toronto might be the one location with worse health outcomes than Colorado. Here’s hoping the new turf fixes all those problems.

The Blue Jays now have the scariest lineup in history against left-handed pitching. I didn’t even bother to verify that comment, I assume it’s true. Devon Travis will probably take over as the leadoff hitter. I’m guessing Tulo will bat cleanup between Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. Throw in Josh Donaldson and this offense looks like it’s straight out of 1999.

Jose Reyes may score fewer runs in Denver, but he also receives a value boost in the trade. In particular, his rate of doubles and triples should spike. One issue that I touched upon – the altitude is correlated with an increased risk for injury. Reyes has struggled to keep his legs healthy for his entire career. I feel sorry for Miguel Castro and Jeff Hoffman. They just saw their future expected earnings halved in the trade.

The other noteworthy trade sent A’s closer Tyler Clippard to the Mets. Clippard is now back in his familiar setup role. He can be dropped in most non-holds leagues. I do recommend waiting a few days just to make sure the Mets don’t do anything crazy. Clippard’s one of the worst closers in the league whereas Jeurys Familia is among the best. That doesn’t always stop a team from going with the weaker guy (see Joe Maddon with Jason Motte and Hector Rondon).

The new A’s closer is probably…well…I’m not sure. Fernando Rodriguez is the trendy name, and he’s available in most leagues. He most closely resembles a traditional closer, but the A’s like to use veterans in that role. As such, it’s probably initially Edward Mujica’s job. Drew Pomeranz has also pitched well enough to fill in. Of the options, closing would affect his arbitration price tags the most.

2. Daily DFS – Syndergaard, Garcia, Godley

Yesterday’s Grind

David Price may be making his last start as a Tiger. It’s thought that one more loss could convince Detroit to sell a few assets like Price. Aside from possible mental considerations, I don’t think it will affect this start. Jose Fernandez continues to have too little margin for error to be worth the expense. The Marlins will be quick to pull him if he runs into any kind of trouble.

After the elites, there are a few more cost effective alternatives to consider. Noah Syndergaard is a high variance pick against the Padres. I’m not worried about the San Diego offense as much as Syndergaard’s command. He’ll improve, but he’s still a little too raw to consider safe. As I hinted, the upside is as good as anyone else.

Assuming he doesn’t develop a new injury, Jaime Garcia offers a high floor, modest ceiling profile. I wish he was cheaper than $8,200 for his matchup against the Reds. I have no idea if he’s on a pitch count. Were I running the Cardinals, he’d be limited to about 60 or 70 pitches.

Way down the list, you’ll find a wild card – Zack Godley. The Diamondback dazzled with his cutter in his debut. As a cutter specialist, I can vouch that a good cutter can completely disarm left-handed hitters. Throw a lefty a bad cutter and they’ll hammer it. For $5,800, I like Godley as a GPP pick. Perhaps I may even use him tonight.

Stack Targets: Julio Teheran, Adam Morgan, Felix Doubront, Wade Miley, Chris Capuano, Martin Perez, Yohan Flande, Dallas Beeler

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

You know how this works.

Carlos Santana v Chris Young
Adam Jones and Manny Machado v Julio Teheran
Billy Hamilton, Todd Frazier, and Brandon Phillips v Jaime Garcia
Chris Young v Martin Perez
Avisail Garcia v Wade Miley
J.D. Martinez v Jake Odorizzi
Adam Lind (if healthy) and Ryan Braun v Matt Cain
Salvador Perez and Jarrod Dyson v Trevor Bauer

4. Tomorrow’s Targets –

If you are reading this sentence, it’s because I’m still with my dog at the vet. I will update as soon as I’m back. For now, all the picks are below.

Pitchers to Start:

Also consider: Ervin Santana, Patrick Corbin, Jake Peavy, Chris Tillman, Tom Koehler

Pitchers to Exploit:

Also consider: Jeremy Guthrie, Justin Verlander?, Eddie Butler, Manny Banuelos, Jerome Williams, Rick Porcello, Bartolo Colon, Colby Lewis

Hitters (power):

Also consider: Andre Ethier, Stephen Piscotty, Chase Headley, Justin Bour, Yonder Alonso, Nolan Reimold, Jonathan Schoop, Chris Coghlan, David DeJesus, James Loney, David Murphy

Hitters (speed):

Also consider: Ichiro Suzuki, Will Venable, Adam Eaton, Tyler Saladino, Odubel Herrera, Jace Peterson, Michael Bourn

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Boston and Minnesota are today’s storm risks. Neither game looks destined for postponement.

The Link.

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