The Daily Grind: Steals, Eickhoff, Tomlin, Gutierrez
Agenda
- So You Need SB?
- Daily DFS
- SaberSim Observations
- Tomorrow’s Targets – Tomlin, Hill, Gutierrez, O’Malley
- Factor Grid
1. So You Need SB?
Lately, the speed section of the column has felt a little slack. When I make player picks for tomorrow, I try to select players who can reasonably be expected to perform at a high(ish) level. By nature, burners (i.e. Terrance Gore) lack some of the traits (i.e. power, contact) necessary to succeed.
There is a second issue for owners in desperate need of steals – there isn’t much time left. With about two weeks left in the season, any player with 25 stolen bases or more (just 10 players) can be expected to swipe two more bases. Players with 12 or 13 steals should grab one more before the end of the season.
Of course, that’s just a linear projection of their current total against the time remaining. As we know, stolen bases can come in chunks. If you’re trying to overcome a five or 10 steal deficit in your roto league, you’ll have to do more than pick fast players.
Unless it’s Mike Piazza behind the dish, steals are generally taken off the pitcher. This handy chart via The Sporting News, shows us which pitchers are exploited most. I’d consider everyone from Jon Lester to Taylor Jungmann to be smart targets. Go after players who get on base and have speed against those pitchers. By the way, Jungmann starts tonight against the base running happy Reds.
That doesn’t mean you should ignore catchers. Their aptitude behind the plate does affect base running decisions. Here’s a leaderboard. Unsurprisingly, Francisco Cervelli has been preyed upon the most thanks to A.J. Burnett and Gerrit Cole. We can easily lay that on the pitchers – those issues existed for them before Cervelli arrived in Pittsburgh. Kurt Suzuki, Derek Norris, Miguel Montero, A.J. Pierzynski, Brayan Pena, Chris Ianetta, Carlos Ruiz, and Hank Conger all look like smart targets.
2. Daily DFS – Corbin, Carrasco, Eickhoff
Early: FanDuel has today split into three parts. The early slate includes two or the three 1:05 ET starts. The Minnesota makeup is left out. You could defend using Noah Syndergaard, Michael Wacha, or Michael Pineda. I can’t foresee Travis Wood lasting long enough to be viable.
Afternoon: Four games are between the normal start times. Jordan Zimmermann is the costliest pitcher in the group. Frankly, I like Patrick Corbin second most even though he costs $6,900 (sixth of eight). Corbin is opposed by the Giants at AT&T Park. It’s not the easiest matchup. It’s not the hardest matchup.
Late: It’s Clayton Kershaw day! Good luck finding the budget for him. I’m partial to Carlos Carrasco ($9,400) as the next guy in line despite Cole Hamels, Sonny Gray, Scott Kazmir, and Francisco Liriano also making starts. Carrasco is opposed by Carlos Rodon ($8,300) and the White Sox at Progressive Field. He’s not the safest pick given his recent injury issues, but his ceiling stacks up against any non-Kershaw tonight.
There’s a precipice after Rodon. The next pitcher – Vidal Nuno – is $2,300 less expensive. We have some very exploitable pitchers in this group. One stands out as a guy to use – Jerad Eickhoff. The Phillies trade acquisition is opposed by the Braves in the battle for last place. Philadelphia is currently “winning” by two games. Eickhoff has pitched well in four of his five starts. The Red Sox demolished him. I’m counting on 10 to 12 points for $5,400.
Stack Targets: Wood, Justin Nicolino, Wade Miley, Wei-Yin Chen, Matt Boyd, Josh Smith, Ryan Weber, Mike Pelfrey, Nuno, Robbie Erlin, Yohan Flande
3. SaberSim Observations
SaberSim agrees with me with regards to Carrasco. He’s the third rated starter today behind Kershaw and Syndergaard. I’m not sure I agree with Chen as the fifth best pitcher. By which I mean that I strongly disagree. The Rays are too consistently good against left-handed pitching.
Again, it’s no surprise to see the Padres lining the first page of the hitters. Matt Kemp and Wil Myers rate first and second. Justin Upton was left off the report, but you can assume he’s first, second, or third. Jedd Gyorko, Melvin Upton, and Yangervis Solarte also rate highly.
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Tomlin, Hill, Gutierrez, O’Malley
Pitchers to Start: Finally, a Josh Tomlin matchup I can recommend. Tomlin’s biggest issue is an elevated home run rate. Even with his success this season, he’s still allowed 11 home runs. Considering that he’s allowed just 31 hits and 15 runs, the frequency of home runs is concerning. When his .160 BABIP regresses, he’s going to get dinged. On the plus side, I’m a big fan of Tomlin’s elite K/BB ratio.
Also consider: Kevin Gausman, Aaron Nola, Matt Shoemaker, Tyler Duffey, Derek Holland, Jeremy Hellickson,
Pitchers to Exploit: Rich Hill was fantastic in his Red Sox debut. He struck out 10 batters with one walk and one hit over seven innings. That came against a Rays team that usually mashes lefties. Hill will be handed a harder test tomorrow – the Blue Jays. If he manages to escape this matchup with decent numbers, he may well be a pitcher to use over the rest of the season.
Also consider: Mark Buehrle, Alfredo Simon, John Danks, Brad Hand, Ariel Pena, Aaron Brooks, Kyle Kendrick, CC Sabathia
Hitters (power): Franklin Gutierrez is having a monster partial season. He has a .318 ISO against left-handed pitching. But wait, there’s more – a .412 ISO against right-handers. Gutierrez is not Mark McGwire. He will regress. In the interim, he starts against every lefty ,and he seems to always hit a home run when he plays.
Also consider: Juan Uribe, Michael Cuddyer, Wilmer Flores, Solarte, Eddie Rosario, Aaron Hicks, Ryan Raburn, Yan Gomes, Chris Colabello
Hitters (speed): Shawn O’Malley doesn’t reliably start for the Mariners, but he’s a good bet for a stolen base when he does. Tomorrow, the M’s face southpaw Derek Holland. O’Malley could get the start in place of Seth Smith or Brad Miller. He’ll bat eighth or ninth if he plays.
Also consider: Ender Inciarte, Ketel Marte, Stephen Piscotty, Rusney Castillo
5. The Factor Grid
The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.
No weather factors today. Also, no rain is forecasted. Bueno.
This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.
You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam