The Daily Grind: Stack or Ace?

FanGraphs now has RosterResource available. Look near the top-right of the toolbar. I don’t know if/how I’ll use it yet, but it sure looks helpful.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. Clearing

1.The Daily Grind Invitational

Brewday took home a tightly fought contest. A full 10 rosters were within 18 points of first place. Walker Buehler, Jack Flaherty, and Christian Yelich led the way for the brews. Congrats and Leaderboard.

We’ve some fresh nine-game Wednesday night action on FantasyDraft. We’ve also returned from the ASB a tad tepidly. Let’s fill this one so they don’t lower the size of the contest. Big overlays are great, but they won’t put up with an always-overlay.

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2. Weather Reports

Boston has a fairly sizable risk for rain around mid-game. An interruption seems very likely. A postponement is less of a risk but still on the table. They’re playing the Jays which means they have plenty of opportunity to make it up. Baltimore and New York (AL) also have some risk for rain. The Yankees game in particular will need to move at a brisk pace or risk ending after six innings.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Gerrit Cole ($23,700) headlines a slate which will likely force you to choose between him and a stack of Dodgers hitters. (Or hidden door C). Cole can and has overcome the low-strikeout Angels. On July 6, he fired off a tidy 34.75 points against them with nine strikeouts. Once again a double-digit strikeout total is possible. Felix Pena ($13,000) would be an interesting contrarian bargain play if not for the Astros offense.

The good Chris Paddack is back after a month-long absence. He’ll cost $21,400 for what should be an easy outing against the Marlins. This could turn into a stealthy pitchers duel. The Padres are very strikeout prone against right-handed pitchers which could help Trevor Richards ($14,900) on his way to going pitch-for-pitch with Paddack.

Domingo German ($20,700) is overpriced due to the twin risks of rain and Rays. That lineup is chock full of lefty sluggers, all of whom will be swinging at a short porch. I’m usually in on Yonny Chirinos ($17,100). Unfortunately, his price has crept up lately. He should cost something like $12,500 in this matchup. Rain and the juggernaut Yankees conspire to hurt him.

I like Robbie Ray’s healthy strikeout ability. His iffy run prevention tends to overly depress his ownership. A visit to The Glob Life adds to the volatility. The Rangers are rather strikeout prone against left-handed pitchers, but they still perform decently. Plausible outcomes range from a negative point total to something like seven innings and 12 strikeouts.

As much as I’d like to put this one in my pocket, Mike Clevinger ($19,400) is a near must-play at home against the Tigers. He’ll probably perform similarly to Cole at a steep discount. Spencer Turnbull ($14,000) ain’t too shabby at this price either.

I have concerns about Kenta Maeda holding down the fort in Philadelphia. The win bonus is very likely, giving him an obvious path to return value on his $16,300 price tag. This could easily turn into a shootout.

Jesse Chavez isn’t good, but he is ridiculously cheap. At $8,500, this might be the way to use a Dodgers or Astros stack and eat your Cole too. Chavez will probably toss five or six nondescript innings.

Favorite Plays: Clevinger, Cole, Ray, Chavez

Stack Targets: Nick Pivetta, Erick Fedde, Aaron Brooks, Ivan Nova, Pena, Aaron Sanchez

4. SaberSim Says…

A reminder, I check out SaberSim only after I write Section 3. The machine and I are in close agreement today. Clevinger, Ray, Cole, Paddack, and Richards are the top rated pitchers tonight. The projections for Ray (19.27) and Cole (19.25) are nearly identical. Richards and Chavez are tied as the top bargains followed by Clevinger, Maeda, and Ray. *takes a bow 

On the hitting side, Cody Bellinger, Yordan Alvarez, Mookie Betts, Rafael Devers, and Anthony Rendon are the preferred studs. Jose Rondon, Mike Zunino, Ryan Zimmerman, Bobby Bradley (wasn’t he demoted?), and Vladito are among the bargains.

5.Clearing

Hector Neris has twice been bailed out in these double blown saves. The hit batter was obviously unintentional. Poor Pollock.

Another ugly unintentional HBP.

No HBP required for the benches to clear in this one.