The Daily Grind: Sleepers, Hi/Lo, Dickey, Holland

Agenda

1. Some Sleepers via Strandberg
2. Daily DFS – Dickey?
3. GB / FB Splits
4. SaberSim Hi/Lo
5. Tomorrow’s Targets – Eovaldi, Holland, Mauer, Hernandez
6. Factor Grid

1. Some Sleepers via Strandberg

For those of you who care about my life (i.e. none of you), my dog had a major surgery last Monday. Since then, I’ve been sleeping on the floor with him to help facilitate his healing. He’s not allowed to jump on anything like a couch or our bed. So I’m camping out with him in my dog-proofed office.

Where said dog story relates to the Daily Grind is the floor sleeping. A week on the ground has left me exhausted and slow to wake. Rather than create my own content here, I’ll point you in the direction of a piece Scott Strandberg wrote yesterday. I’m having trouble sleeping, Strandberg is writing about sleepers. Irony? No, not irony.

They’re all good picks and all players who appear with occasion in the Daily Grind.

Oh, and I’m introducing a new section today. Talk to me about it, the exact format will evolve.

2. Daily DFS – Dickey?

Yesterday’s Grind

It’s an all-play Tuesday this evening. Obviously, you want to use Clayton Kershaw. Can you afford him? Probably not. Unfortunately, Jacob deGrom has a tough matchup at Camden Yards. Francisco Liriano offers a reasonable top-end solution at PNC Park against the Diamondbacks. As we all know, he can be…inconsistent.

If you don’t mind rolling the dice, I’d consider R.A. Dickey at Philadelphia. Since the beginning of June, the Blue Jays knuckleballer has allowed more than three earned runs in just one start. He’s also familiar with pitching deep into the game, averaging 6.2 innings per start over the same period. Unfortunately, you can’t count on strikeouts. There’s always blow up risk too.

On second thought, it’s a good day to gather up bargain hitters around Kershaw.

Stack Targets: Mike Pelfrey, CC Sabathia, Aaron Nola, Raisel Iglesias, Chi-Chi Gonzalez, Adam Conley, Tyler Cravy, Scott Feldman, David Hale, John Danks, Felix Doubront, Matt Wisler

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

Take your pick of 34 players.

Hank Conger, Jake Marisnick, Evan Gattis, Carlos Correa v Jake Odorizzi
Will Venable, Justin Upton v Matthew Wisler
Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts, Alejandro De Aza, Brock Holt, David Ortiz v Trevor Bauer
Jose Bautista v Aaron Nola
Franklin Gutierrez, Logan Morrison v Alex Gonzalez
Jayson Werth v David Hale
James McCann, Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez v Jason Hammel

4. SaberSim Hi/Lo

My thought is to comment briefly on a player SaberSim likes as much or more than than me. Then I’ll point out somebody I like much less than SaberSim.

Anthony Rendon (like): A trip to Coors Field to visit David Hale and the Rockies bullpen is just what the doctor ordered to jump start Rendon’s season. SaberSim says he’s the seventh best hitter tonight. I won’t go that far, but he’s affordable for his upside – $4,000 on DraftKings (FanDuel is down for maintenance).

Matt Wisler (dislike): SaberSim thinks Wisler is the wise bargain play of the day. He’s the fifth ranked pitcher per the projections. I call foul. He’s opposed by a superior pitcher – James Shield. He doesn’t strike out opponents, he averages under six innings a start, and his results haven’t even been lucky good. SaberSim says he’s a 12 FanDuel point pitcher. That’s his absolute ceiling, not his average.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets – Eovaldi, Holland, Mauer, Hernandez

Pitchers to Start: If you’re chasing a win, Nathan Eovaldi is a decent streaming option tomorrow. You better feel secure with your ratios since the Twins have a sneaky good offense. The game is at Yankee Stadium, I could hit the ball out batting left-handed (that’s a lie, I can’t hit off a tee left-handed).

The good news is that Eovaldi is opposed by a slumping Ervin Santana. Any offense the Twins muster should be more than offset by the Yanquis. Eovaldi continues to pump 96 mph fastballs without positive results. Owners hoping for a Garrett Richards quality breakout have been left thoroughly disappointed. On the plus side, he has controlled his walk rate and kept the ball on the ground.

Also consider: Ubaldo Jimenez, Robbie Ray, Jaime Garcia

Pitchers to Exploit: Derek Holland returns to action tomorrow. Given his first aborted attempt to pitch this season, I’m taking a pessimistic outlook on tomorrow’s start. You could also try streaming him against the Mariners. At his best, Holland has the ability to post a good strikeout rate with very few walks. You’ll want to see his velocity check in somewhere around the 92 to 94 mph range.

Also consider: Ervin Santana, Michael Montgomery, Adam Morgan, J.A. Happ, Joe Kelly, Jeremy Guthrie, Keyvius Sampson, Matt Cain, Daniel Norris, Jorge de la Rosa, Nate Karns, Jered Weaver

Hitters (power): Even Joe Mauer can hit a home run at Yankee Stadium. Really. I’m not hyperbolizing this time, it could happen. I don’t really understand where Mauer’s batting average went – he’s still a high contact spray hitter.

Also consider: Darin Ruf, Eddie Rosario, Aaron Hicks, Jayson Werth, Preston Tucker, Nick Castellanos, Yasmany Tomas, Chris Colabello, Kelly Johnson, Jesus Montero, Didi Gregorius

Hitters (speed): Cesar Hernandez swings best from the right side of the plate. While Mark Buehrle doesn’t have platoon splits, that can be misleading with switch-hitters. Especially those that have a superior side.

Also consider: Tyler Saladino, Rajai Davis, Will Venable

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

We have a trio of August storm risks. Watch out in Pittsburgh, Chicago, and St. Louis. It should be a power friendly day.

The Link.

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