The Daily Grind: Sept-Ace

I dreamed I was at a Top Chef breakfast buffet and every piece of bacon would slide right off my plate.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. Not Crisp

1.The Daily Grind Invitational

Johnson119 was able to narrowly fend off yisman by finding a potent combination of Gerrit Cole and five hitters with 16 or more points (no thanks to Adrian Sampson). Congrats and Leaderboard.

It’s a 15-game slate tonight on FantasyDraft. Dig in for deep action.

If you have not signed up for FantasyDraft, please use this referral link for tracking purposes. If I understand properly, by using the referral, you will receive a 10 percent return on any rakes you pay.

2. Weather Reports

Well. My usual weather source has around a 50 percent chance for “possible drizzle” at the Mets game tonight. A similar forecast yielded a preemptive cancellation with the Rockies and Nationals last night.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

It’s Trevor Bauer day, and he leads the, uh, well, we have a choice. Is it a sex-ace or hex-ace (or no dashes)? In any case, for $22,000, you too can roster a hot Bauer against a below average Blue Jays offense.

Chris Sale ($21,300) is a better pitcher than Bauer, but he has a much tougher matchup against the Rays. Since Tampa is, in fact, weaker against left-handed pitching, I see no reason to steer clear. It’s Yonny Chirinos day in Tampa, but he costs too much at $16,200.

Stephen Strasburg ($20,500) should stroll right on past the sea level rockies. Even Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado are just guys when playing on the road. Opposing pitcher Peter Lambert is still priced cheaply enough to be a stack OR bargain candidate.

Matthew Boyd ($19,700) is hosting the Phillies and Aaron Nola ($19,400). Despite Boyd’s home field advantage, I’ll take the Nola side of this equation nine times out of 10. And that 10th time is simply a contrarian play. Boyd projects to do just fine against a disappointing Phillies offense. He should continue posting extreme strikeout rates. With the exception of a recent outing against the high octane Dodgers, Nola has looked quite sharp lately. The Tigers should fold.

Who is the sixth ace? We could actually debate the matter. By price, it’s Chris Paddack ($19,500). He’s visiting the Mets at pitcher friendly CitiField. Paddack is on a streak of three very strong outings after a long slump.

Other candidates for acedom tonight include Domingo German ($18,400), Yu Darvish ($17,900), and Caleb Smith ($17,800). They each have a problem though. German faces the Twins, a difficult and powerful opponent. Darvish has a juicy matchup against the Giants at Oracle Park, but he’s prove to be… inconsistent… this season. Still, all signs point to good Darvish tonight. Smith is backed by an ineffectual offense which limits his ability to earn easy win bonuses. He also rarely throws more than five or six innings. He’s in Chicago to face the Pale Hose.

Kyle Gibson ($15,800) is always a wild ride. I recall a couple very strong outings against the Yankees last year. That’s not enough reason to use him tonight though. There’s a $2,000 divide between Gibson and Smith – the next priciest pitcher. Finding a spare $2,000 is difficult so you might find yourself stuck in this Gibson-led basket of pitchers.

I’d rather use Kenta Maeda ($15,000). He’s appropriately priced against the Angels – a team with a low strikeout rate. However, if you dig just a little deeper, you’ll find a trove of bargains.

I’ve mostly steered clear of Dallas Keuchel ($14,900) to date as his brand of pitching is very reliant on pinpoint command. He seems to be hitting spots just fine, and more importantly, he’ll face the Royals in Atlanta.

Merrill Kelly ($14,800) is in a good spot. The Diamondbacks host the lowly Orioles. Kelly is a good GPP target. Although his average point total marks him as a mid-tier play, he tends to throw high or low values. Catch a good day, and you’re on your way to the money. Dylan Bundy ($12,100) is priced to move too.

I wish Chris Archer ($14,600) would just decide if he’s terrible or good. It’s a credit to him that he’s resurrected his season. With a PNC Park game against the Cardinals tonight, Archer seems quite underpriced. His valuation speaks to his floor, and he has quite a bit of additional ceiling to unlock.

Other affordable values include Tanner Roark ($13,700 at Brewers), Dakota Hudson ($13,000 at Pirates), Zach Davies ($11,000 vs Reds), and Dylan Covey ($9,500 vs Marlins). Obviously, these aren’t premium assets by any stretch of the imagine. Rather, they’re fairly likely to return some modest dollar-for-dollar value.

Favorite Plays: aces, Darvish, Kelly

Stack Targets: Lambert, Danny Duffy, Taylor Cole, Jason Vargas, Matt Wisler, Covey

4. SaberSim Says…

Surprise! It’s a sept-ace! Sale, Strasburg, Bauer, Nola, and Madison Bumgarner are the top pitchers this evening. FDraft has developed a bug where they don’t quite list all of the pitchers in a slate. Tonight, it’s Bumgarner who is hiding under the covers. Not only is Bumgarner a good value at ($18,100) against the Cubs, his ownership is liable to be a tad depressed. Speaking of values, Bundy, Archer, Sale, Strasburg, and Davies lead the bargain crew.

Hitters you ask? How about Christian Yelich, Cody Bellinger, Yordan Alvarez, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Mike Trout? Or dig deep for bargains like Jose Rondon, Humberto Arteaga, Welington Castillo, Robinson Cano, and Jose Abreu.

5.Not Crisp

This is not the most crisp around-the-horn Triple-A – a function of the Yankees plodding offense.

If you stuck around for all 10 innings of the Cards-Pirates game (I did not), you were treated to a thrilling conclusion.

I’ve done this. It’s not especially intentional. You just flip your glove into a space and hope the ball shares it.