The Daily Grind: Seager, Severino, Lamb, Moore

Agenda

  1. Seager Restraint
  2. Daily DFS
  3. GB / FB Splits
  4. SaberSim Hi/Lo
  5. Tomorrow’s Targets – Lamb, Moore, Baez, Kelby
  6. Factor Grid

1. Seager Restraint

The Dodgers have summoned top prospect Corey Seager. Like with the Cubs and Javier Baez, the Dodgers have to quickly decide if Seager has a role on the playoff roster. Unlike the Cubs, L.A. has a wide range of excellent, experienced bench players. It’s not entirely clear that Seager can be expected to outperform an Enrique Hernandez (once healthy).

For now, he’ll supposedly fill the role of backup shortstop. The Dodgers other backups are recovering from strained hamstrings (yes, multiple players). It probably won’t hurt Jimmy Rollins to split time over the next couple weeks. Seager did play well yesterday going 2-for-4 with a double. We could see him again tonight. Overall, I’d be looking for about 40 plate appearances over the month with Rollins getting 60 to 80 percent of the starts.

2. Daily DFS – Severino

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: Once again, just one early game. Bye bye DBacks and Cubs.

Late: That leaves with 14 games tonight. It’s a colorful group. The “safe” pitchers include Jacob deGrom, Corey Kluber, and Carlos Martinez. deGrom has the best matchup opposite the Marlins. Kluber (Detroit) and Martinez (Pittsburgh) have their work cut out for them.

The day is layered with too many exploits for my liking. However, there is a trio of mid-tier guys who all have 10 to 15 FanDuel point upside. All three shouldn’t be expected to pitch more than six innings.

Luis Severino is the trendiest. He has an easy matchup with the Rays. Unfortunately, he’s home at Yankee Stadium. Luckily, the Rays don’t have any real left-handed power threat. J.A. Happ is my next favorite against a Cardinals lineup that struggles with left-handed pitching (88 wRC+). Finally, a resurgent Kris Medlen draws the White Sox.

Before anyone asks, I’m not a Joe Kelly believer. I don’t feel the need to explain myself.

Stack Targets: Drew Hutchison, Keyvius Sampson, Adam Morgan, Tanner Roark, Edgar Olmos, Martin Perez, Mike Pelfrey, Aaron Brooks, Matt Garza, John Danks, Jorge de la Rosa, Kyle Lobstein, Chris Heston

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

Quality makes up for a lack of quantity tonight.

Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts, Brock Holt, David Ortiz v Adam Morgan
Alex Rodriguez v Jake Odorizzi
Yunel Escobar v Julio Teheran
Prince Fielder v Garrett Richards
Marlon Byrd v Jorge de la Rosa
Ben Paulsen v Chris Heston
Seth Smith, Kyle Seager, v Aaron Brooks
Steve Pearce, Jonathan Schoop, Manny Machado v Drew Hutchison

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Lamb, Moore, Baez, Kelby

Pitchers to Start: John Lamb is a source of consternation. His 5.24 ERA hides a 2.91 xFIP. He’s been homer prone (16.7 percent HR/FB), fly ball prone (40.7 percent fly balls), and hit prone (.404 BABIP). He’s been prone to damage. Strangely, he’s also exhibited excellent strikeout rates (11.69 K/9) and a solid walk rate. If you can afford to take a hit in ERA and WHIP in exchange for strikeouts, he’s a solid pickup against the Brewers.

Also consider: Nate Eovaldi, Jaime Garcia, Lance McCullers, Bartolo Colon, Derek Holland

Pitchers to Exploit: Undoubtedly, Matt Moore will be a popular streaming target tomorrow. I had the pleasure to watch him twice in Durham. He was originally sent down to work on his command. From what I saw, it was still between average and below average. The Triple-A hitters couldn’t handle his fastball, but that won’t be the case in the majors.

Also consider: Terry Doyle (or Mike Wright), Alec Asher, Wade Miley, Ervin Santana, Brad Hand, Jake Peavy, Chad Bettis, Jered Weaver

Hitters (power): In my opinion, Javier Baez’s major league success will depend on his BABIP. His solid minor league season was driven by a .402 BABIP. If he can consistently make high quality contact, there’s nothing stopping him from being a .340 BABIP guy like Yasiel Puig. The would put him in line for a .250/.300/.470 line – slightly above major league average. He’ll have the platoon advantage against Robbie Ray tomorrow.

Also consider: Chris Young, Khris Davis, Jeff Francoeur, Darin Ruf, Aaron Altherr, Stephen Piscotty, Hector Olivera, Juan Uribe, Michael Cuddyer, Marlon Byrd, Ben Paulsen

Hitters (speed): Kelby Tomlinson won’t be a streaming option for much longer. However, so long as he’s starting at Coors Field, he’s an interesting pick. He’s stolen 22 bags in 519 plate appearances this year (just one in the majors). Last season, he snagged 57 in 564 plate appearances.

Also consider: Darnell Sweeney, Cesar Hernandez, Ichiro Suzuki, Will Venable

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

You’ll notice the weather conditions degrade rapidly at night. Welcome to September. It’s going to get cold soon.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any platform, scaffolding, podium, or dais. 





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David
8 years ago

what about Bollinger tonight?