The Daily Grind: Sanchez, Gee, Fister

Agenda

1. Three Minor Leaguer Catchers
2. Daily DFS – Sanchez, de la Rosa
3. GB / FB Splits
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Gee, Fister, Forsythe, Iglesias
5. Factor Grid

 

1. Three Minor League Catchers

I’ve been perusing the minor league leaderboards lately, trying to get a sense of who might get called up around the team money-saving deadline in June (i.e. when teams can call up prospects for the first time and not risk having them be Super-Twos). I looked for hitters who (1) are mashing, (2) have something of a prospect pedigree or established minor league performance, (3) who aren’t particularly old for their level, and (4) play a position where the major league club could use an upgrade right now, or is likely to need one in the next month or so.

There were several such players, but there were three NL West catchers that stood out. Obviously this won’t help you in dynasty leagues (I’m guessing they would already be owned in those formats), but these guys likely remain unowned in many other leagues. If you have happen to have a roster spot, consider…

Peter O’Brien

He’s a catcher in name only at this point, and has instead been playing OF at triple-A Reno. The Diamondbacks don’t really need any outfielders right now, but should an injury or drop in production create a need, O’Brien could (and should) get the call. He’s slashing a deadly .383/.419/.753 with 7 home runs, 7 doubles, a .370 ISO, and a 31.8% line drive rate. Yes it’s Reno and the PCL where offense is inflated pretty much across the board, but O’Brien now has a beefy hitting track record that includes stops in leagues and parks that are much less hitter friendly. If he’s called up, he might be catcher-eligible in leagues that use primary position in addition to game requirements to determine position eligibility.

Tommy Murphy

Nick Hundley is looking good now, but it’s only a matter of time before the sun burns away his glamorous paper skin and reveals the foul scales beneath, whereupon Hundley will return to the dense, dark, oxygen deprived ocean floor. It’d be cool to seem “Smiles” McKenry get a shot at more playing time, but he’s an ideal backup/lefty masher. Murphy will be waiting for a call. Right now he’s .323/.413/.569 in double-A with .246 ISO, 3 homers, a 12.0% walk rate, and a couple of stolen bases to boot. Playing in Denver, he’d be a great flyer candidate if called up.

Austin Hedges

Derek Norris is cool (and possibly feral?), but he really only hits lefties. If Hedges keeps hitting the way he is now at triple-A, he could make the jump to the big leagues soon and assume the bulk of the playing time. His .355/.420/.581 line so far this year is his best ever, so perhaps it’s an anomaly based on a generous run environment. Either way, he figures to be better than Wil Nieves in general, and better than Norris vs. righties.

Happy watchlisting!

 

2. Daily DFS – Aaron Sanchez

(You can relive yesterday’s Daily Grind here, btw)

Early: Games are pretty evenly split between the early and late portions today, with seven games to choose from early. It could pay off to stack against Aaron Sanchez today, as the Indians can featured a lineup with many lefties and Sanchez has yielded a .538 wOBA against lefties this year. He’s also been prone to the homer, though conditions aren’t likely to be super homer friendly in Cleveland today (see below).

Late: Eight games in the late edition. Conditions should be decent for homers again in San Diego, and Jorge de la Rosa has surrendered a 1.113 OPS in about 150 chances against current Padres hitters. Matt Kemp in particular has killed de la Rosa in the past. Jorge’s FIP, xFIP, and SIERA are worlds better than his ERA after just 7 disastrous innings so far this year, and his strikeout rate (26.3%) and swinging strike rate (14.7%) are both encouraging, but I still like this matchup—or rather, I don’t like it for de la Rosa.

Other Stack Targets: Wade Miley, Ricky Nolasco, Jeremy Hellickson, Scott Baker

 

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

Jeff has 26 players on his list today. A few highlights:

Buster Posey & Justin Maxwell vs. Hector Santiago
Jayson Werth vs. Jon Niese
Billy Butler vs. Nick Martinez
Chris Young vs. Wade Miley
Ryan Howard vs. Dan Haren

 

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Gee, Fister

Pitchers to Start: Dillon Gee has pretty much been the epitome of mediocrity in his MLB to date. This year, despite a low K%, he’s sporting a Keuchelian ground-ball rate (61.0%, 6th best in MLB) to go with a great F-Strike rate (69.8%, 8th best in the majors). His 10.4% swinging strike rate portends an uptick in that strikeout rate, too. Increased usage of a two-seamer and changeup, both of which induce a lot of ground balls (the two-seamer is at 71%!) have helped a lot. The changeup is getting whiffs at a 20% rate so far, too.

The Nationals (Gee’s opponents on Sunday) strikeout a fair amount, so maybe this is the game where his K% catches up to his SwStr%. The game is at Citi Field, which, of course, is a decent park for pitchers.

Also consider: Nathan Karns

Pitchers to Exploit: Pretty much everything is looking down for Doug Fister so far this year. He’s not striking anyone out, and he’s not getting whiffs. His once very good GB% is now actually sitting below league average. His HR/FB is sitting above league average. The one thing that stands out to explain this is that he’s not making people miss on pitches out of the zone: hitters are swinging [slightly] more, but making contact at an insane 91.9% rate. That might be an aberration, but it doesn’t look good right now.

Also consider: Sean O’Sullivan, Drew Hutchison, Jason Vargas

Happy stacking!

Hitters (power): Logan Forsythe likes to hit lefties, and Wei-Yin Chen is a lefty. Forsythe has two homers off of Chen in 16 plate appearances and has hit him well in general even outside of the homers.

Also consider: Chris Iannetta, Yasmany Tomas, Alex Avila, Colby Rasmus

Hitters (speed): Jose Iglesias also likes to hit lefties. He’ll face off against Jason Vargas in Kansas City. He bats ninth for the Tigers, normally, but that’s the second leadoff position, right?

Also consider: Norichika Aoki, Dexter Fowler

 

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

We don’t appear to be in danger of missing any games due to rain today. Several parks look like they have good conditions for dingers. Take your pick!

And happy weathergazing!

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The Brad Johnson, who is the author regular author of the Daily Grind here at RotoGraphs, is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.