The Daily Grind: Salazar, Lyons, Jungmann


  1. Field of Streams
  2. Daily DFS
  3. GB / FB Splits
  4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Lyons, Jungmann, Melky, Eaton
  5. Factor Grid

1. Field of Streams

Those among you who wish to hear me ramble senselessly about DFS picks can download the Field of Streams podcast on Tuesdays or Thursdays. The podcast is available on these very interpages. It’s hosted five days a week by Dylan Higgins.

Today we talk about Coors Field, Anthony Ranaudo, Yankee Stadium, and Justin Verlander. I would link you over to the appropriate post, but it’s not yet published (as of this writing, it may well be up by now).

2. Daily DFS – Coors, Salazar

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: It’s hard to resist the urge to use the Coors Field game today. Collin McHugh and the high octane Astros are opposed by David Hale and the Rocky Mountains. McHugh has coughed up four home runs in his last two starts and seven bombs in his last five. Coors isn’t going to help. Hale has managed to limit the damage, but he’s always flirting with a true disaster.

Late: The 10 game late slate has plenty of pitcher options. The expensive choices include Gerrit Cole, Chris Archer, and Zack Greinke. All three are very likely to earn a win.

Assuming Cleveland avoids rain, Danny Salazar has one of the highest ceilings of the day. Unfortunately, he also has a low floor. Given the Cubs’ strikeout tendencies, Salazar could pile up 15 punch outs. Given their power tendencies, Salazar could allow four home runs. There’s a wide range of possible outcomes.

Stack Targets: Bud Norris, Sean O’Sullivan, McHugh, Hale, Ian Kennedy, Allen Webster, Mat Latos, CC Sabathia, Bartolo Colon, R.A. Dickey, Mike Leake, Jeremy Guthrie, Ryan Vogelsong, Michael Montgomery, Anthony Ranaudo

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

Just 14 guys today. Here are the best.

Howie Kendrick and Andre Ethier vs. Colby Lewis
Billy Butler vs. Ian Kennedy
Chris Carter vs. David Hale
Kevin Kiermaier vs. Doug Fister
Dexter Fowler vs. Danny Salazar

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Lyons, Jungmann, Melky, Eaton

Pitchers to Start: Lefty Tyler Lyons draws the ever-desirable Phillies matchup. Lyons has made four starts for the Cardinals with mixed results. A hefty 11.50 K/9 and solid 3.00 BB/9 have produced a 2.71 xFIP. Unfortunately, a .340 BABIP and 26.7 percent HR/FB ratio resulted in a 5.00 ERA. Going forward, I expect about 8.00 K/9, 2.75 BB/9, and a 3.75 ERA.

Also consider: Kyle Hendricks, Michael Bolsinger

Pitchers to Exploit: I like picking on rookies in their first Coors Field start. There is a psychological factor in play, but the park also reduces their stuff. Young pitchers often aren’t great at making rapid adjustments. Jungmann has pitched fine through two starts, but his minor league numbers reveal modest control problems.

Also consider: Marco Estrada, Nate Karns, Jorge de la Rosa, Rubby de la Rosa, Roenis Elias

Hitters (power): It’s not a good day for power picks. Any way you slice it, Melky Cabrera has been awful this season. His .040 ISO makes him a particularly odd pick for “power.” I can’t find any reason why he isn’t hitting for some power. I fully expect him to regress back to a .280/.330/.400 performance. That could start tomorrow against Colby Lewis

Also consider: Chris Coghlan, Justin Bour, Randal Grichuk, Jeff Francoeur

Hitters (speed): Over the last 30 days, Adam Eaton is hitting an acceptable .250/.323/.402 with three stolen bases, three home runs, and 18 runs. He’ll have the platoon advantage against Lewis.

Also consider: Jake Marisnick, Cory Spangenberg, Billy Burns

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The game in Cleveland has a 60 percent chance for storms.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment. 

We hoped you liked reading The Daily Grind: Salazar, Lyons, Jungmann by Brad Johnson!

Please support FanGraphs by becoming a member. We publish thousands of articles a year, host multiple podcasts, and have an ever growing database of baseball stats.

FanGraphs does not have a paywall. With your membership, we can continue to offer the content you've come to rely on and add to our unique baseball coverage.

Support FanGraphs

You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam

newest oldest most voted

Greinke has zero wins in his last 7 starts despite only allowing more than 1 ER twice in those 7 starts. Greinke gets no run support.