- Field of Streams
- Daily DFS
- GB / FB Splits
- Tomorrow’s Targets – Lyons, Jungmann, Melky, Eaton
- Factor Grid
1. Field of Streams
Those among you who wish to hear me ramble senselessly about DFS picks can download the Field of Streams podcast on Tuesdays or Thursdays. The podcast is available on these very interpages. It’s hosted five days a week by Dylan Higgins.
Today we talk about Coors Field, Anthony Ranaudo, Yankee Stadium, and Justin Verlander. I would link you over to the appropriate post, but it’s not yet published (as of this writing, it may well be up by now).
2. Daily DFS – Coors, Salazar
Early: It’s hard to resist the urge to use the Coors Field game today. Collin McHugh and the high octane Astros are opposed by David Hale and the Rocky Mountains. McHugh has coughed up four home runs in his last two starts and seven bombs in his last five. Coors isn’t going to help. Hale has managed to limit the damage, but he’s always flirting with a true disaster.
Assuming Cleveland avoids rain, Danny Salazar has one of the highest ceilings of the day. Unfortunately, he also has a low floor. Given the Cubs’ strikeout tendencies, Salazar could pile up 15 punch outs. Given their power tendencies, Salazar could allow four home runs. There’s a wide range of possible outcomes.
Stack Targets: Bud Norris, Sean O’Sullivan, McHugh, Hale, Ian Kennedy, Allen Webster, Mat Latos, CC Sabathia, Bartolo Colon, R.A. Dickey, Mike Leake, Jeremy Guthrie, Ryan Vogelsong, Michael Montgomery, Anthony Ranaudo
3. GB / FB Splits
The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.
Just 14 guys today. Here are the best.
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Lyons, Jungmann, Melky, Eaton
Pitchers to Start: Lefty Tyler Lyons draws the ever-desirable Phillies matchup. Lyons has made four starts for the Cardinals with mixed results. A hefty 11.50 K/9 and solid 3.00 BB/9 have produced a 2.71 xFIP. Unfortunately, a .340 BABIP and 26.7 percent HR/FB ratio resulted in a 5.00 ERA. Going forward, I expect about 8.00 K/9, 2.75 BB/9, and a 3.75 ERA.
Also consider: Kyle Hendricks, Michael Bolsinger
Pitchers to Exploit: I like picking on rookies in their first Coors Field start. There is a psychological factor in play, but the park also reduces their stuff. Young pitchers often aren’t great at making rapid adjustments. Jungmann has pitched fine through two starts, but his minor league numbers reveal modest control problems.
Hitters (power): It’s not a good day for power picks. Any way you slice it, Melky Cabrera has been awful this season. His .040 ISO makes him a particularly odd pick for “power.” I can’t find any reason why he isn’t hitting for some power. I fully expect him to regress back to a .280/.330/.400 performance. That could start tomorrow against Colby Lewis
Hitters (speed): Over the last 30 days, Adam Eaton is hitting an acceptable .250/.323/.402 with three stolen bases, three home runs, and 18 runs. He’ll have the platoon advantage against Lewis.
5. The Factor Grid
The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.
The game in Cleveland has a 60 percent chance for storms.
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