The Daily Grind: SaberSim, Lamb, Tomlin

Agenda

1. SaberSim
2. Daily DFS – Lamb
3. GB / FB Splits
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Corbin, Tomlin, Turner, Venable
5. Factor Grid

1. SaberSim

You may have noticed a new feature around these parts – daily projections from SaberSim. At this early stage, I’m using these projections as a secondary tool to check my work. For example, I like Robbie Ray as a mid-cost option against the Braves tonight. SaberSim has him in a virtual tie for the fourth best point total. Good, I can proceed without further analysis.

There are some issues with the projections. Jaime Garcia is expected to throw the most innings tonight – 7.25. Picking Garcia to throw longer than Max Scherzer is incorrect. The Cardinals have let Garcia work deep into games despite his injury prone nature, but we can’t assume he’ll continue to do so. He strikes me more as a five or six innings per start guy.

The hitting projections should help to reinforce the value gap between pitching and hitting. Ray is projected for about 11.5 FanDuel points at a cost of $7,000. Mike Trout costs $4,900 for 4.2 projected points. The pitcher costs $609 per point. The hitter runs $1,167 per point. The name of the game is maximizing points per dollar. Spiking a pitcher is the easiest way to win money.

For the purposes of GPPs, you can’t rely too heavily on the popular picks. We can assume that Trout, Justin Upton, and Matt Kemp will be hugely popular tonight. You’ll need a couple zigs and zags which is where a tool like our GB/FB splits comes in handy.

The output of SaberSim could be used as a shortcut to creating an algorithm. The hardest part in making an algorithm is setting up daily, matchup aware projections. From here, you just need to hand enter prices and develop a formula for lineup optimization. Both components can be “borrowed” from other places on the internet.

I don’t recommend using an algorithm if you’re playing for fun. And I don’t recommend using freely available projections as the foundation if you do simplify the game. Others will be using these or very similar projections. You’ll run into overlap on your entries.

2. Daily DFS – Lamb

Yesterday’s Grind

Chicago v Chicago is early, leaving us with 14 games tonight. We already touched upon Ray and Garcia as guys SaberSim likes. I talked about Ray yesterday in more detail. I have concerns about regression, but I love the matchup. Garcia’s start against Miami is equally desirable.

If you want a sure thing, Corey Kluber, David Price, Dallas Keuchel, and Scherzer are out there. I like Kluber versus the Twins and Scherzer at San Francisco the most. The Yankees have enough thump in their lineup to leave me slightly uneasy about Price, and the same is true about the Tigers and Keuchel.

John Lamb is the mystery of the day. He has posted excellent minor league numbers this season, but our own Kiley McDaniel is less sanguine. From McDaniel’s fingertips:

Lamb is at least a solid inventory arm that could be a fifth starter or long man sooner than later (one scout called him “an extra guy”), but he’s big-league ready and one or two out of every ten of these type of pitchers turns into something better than a fifth starter…

This season, Lamb’s stuff improved to around average according to McDaniel. The results were certainly desirable. He had a 2.67 ERA with 9.5 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 across 111.1 innings. McDaniel’s descriptions have me worried about out pitches. We’ll see how the debut looks.

Stack Targets: Brad Mills, Ivan Nova, Joe Kelly, J.A. Happ, Bartolo Colon, Martin Perez, Danny Duffy, Jered Weaver, Nate Karns, Adam Morgan, Alfredo Simon, Matt Cain

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

Jeff’s update yesterday has looped in some new players with small samples. Treat their splits with a grain of salt. We have variety with 42 names available.

Ryan Braun v Adam Morgan
Cameron Maybin v Robbie Ray
Rajai Davis and Nick Castellanos v Dallas Keuchel
Logan Morrison v Joe Kelly
Logan Forsythe v Martin Perez
Jose Bautista v Ivan Nova
Ben Paulsen v Tyson Ross
C.J. Cron, Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, and Chris Iannetta v Danny Duffy
Carlos Santana v Phil Hughes

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Corbin, Tomlin, Turner, Venable

Pitchers to Start: Aside from allowing too many home runs, Patrick Corbin has returned from Tommy John surgery in top form. He’s posted 8.92 K/9, 2.04 BB/9, and a 4.08 ERA (3.26 xFIP). He’s opposed by the lowly Braves tomorrow. His game-to-game production through seven starts can only be described as inconsistent. There is risk of a meltdown.

Also consider: Brett Anderson

Pitchers to Exploit: No shortage of exploits tomorrow. Josh Tomlin is a pitcher I really like due to a strong strikeout to walk ratio. He spent most of the season on the disabled list and will be making his 2015 debut. Expect about 7.25 K/9, 1.25 BB/9, and way too many home runs from the fly ball pitcher. If he settles in, he’ll qualify as a guy to use later in the season.

Also consider: Wade Miley, Chris Bassitt, Jerome Williams, Tyler Duffey, Josh Tomlin, Mike Foltynewicz, Justin Verlander, Collin McHugh, Brad Hand, David Holmberg

Hitters (power): Like exploit pitchers, we have plenty of power bats to ponder. Justin Turner returned from the disabled list yesterday, and he’s opposed by lousy Reds southpaw Holmberg tomorrow. Traditionally, “lousy” means infested with lice. While disgusting, it doesn’t seem as though that would affect pitching. Maybe Holmberg will be alright.

Also consider: Marlon Byrd, Eugenio Suarez, Ben Paulsen, Yonder Alonso, Stephen Piscotty, Preston Tucker, David Peralta, Jake Lamb, Eddie Rosario, Gerardo Parra, Jesus Montero

Hitters (speed): Will Venable is at Coors Field. Is that enough for you? It’s enough for me.

Also consider: Jose Peraza, Aaron Hicks

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Get ready for a dry, high octane night. Atmospheric conditions are primed for a powerfest tonight.

The Link.

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