The Daily Grind: SaberSim Furious Upgrade

To date, when using SaberSim to judge values, I’ve been forced to use DraftKings prices which are a close but not perfect approximation for FantasyDraft’s model. No more! As of today, FDraft (and Yahoo!) are available as selectable platforms in SaberSim.

I’m especially interested to see how their optimizer deals with FDraft’s scant positional definitions. Then again, I’ve long viewed the lack of catered optimizers as a feature of using FDraft so I suppose I’m hoping it doesn’t work.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. Garlicky

1.The Daily Grind Invitational

Johnsond76 nabbed the gold star with big contributions from Charlie Morton, Kyle Garlick, and Yordan Alvarez. Using many of the same players, I would have been right there with my fellow Johnson had I opted against using Jake Odorizzi. Congrats and Leaderboard.

I’ll see you all for a 14-game slate on FantasyDraft.

UPDATED LINK

If you have not signed up for FantasyDraft, please use this referral link for tracking purposes. If I understand properly, by using the referral, you will receive a 10 percent return on any rakes you pay.

2. Weather Reports

Aside from a small risk of passing showers in St. Louis, it’s all clear.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Will Chris Sale ($23,100) be the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth against a lefty-prone Blue Jays offense? Yeah, probably. A small corner of my brain remembers a dink-tastic drubbing of Sale by an even weaker version of this Jays lineup. Trent Thornton ($13,600) is aggressively priced if you’re feeling very contrarian.

Walker Buehler ($21,600) has the pleasure of facing the sea level rockies sans Trevor Story and (probably) Nolan Arenado. After a stumbly start to the year, he’s back in top form.

Trevor Bauer ($21,200) hosts Matthew Boyd ($18,500) and I’m wondering at my inclination to use Boyd over Bauer. It’s clear both lineups are exploitable. Bauer crushed these self-same Tigers last week, but he’s also proven to be a frustrating asset this season. Boyd has more consistently tossed 20 point scores. Ultimately, my rational side overrules my animalistic urge to “reward” Boyd for contributing to fewer of my losses.

Stephen Strasburg ($20,200) feels like somebody who will slip through the cracks today. He’s pricey and his matchup against the Braves is more difficult than those of other relief aces. Perhaps that’s a reason to use him? I’d definitely skip what’s likely to be a short 2019 debut for Dallas Keuchel ($16,300).

James Paxton ($16,300) can easily outperform this price tag even if he is a highly risky play at Yankee Stadium. The Astros lineup is in the process of reassembling Voltron and can still be treated as merely great rather than ELITE. This looks like GPP gold to me. I’ll pass on Brad Peacock ($15,300) even though the price is fair. Aaron Judge is back to join Giancarlo Stanton, Luke Voit, Edwin Encarnacion, and Gary Sanchez. WTF mate?

Griffin Canning ($15,900) is a solid mid-tier cast. His opponent, Michael Wacha, can’t seem to keep runs off the board. A win is likely along with a quality start and around a strikeout per inning.

Although he’s trapped in a nightmare, Aaron Nola ($15,000) feels like he’s on the cusp of a rebound. An outing against the turdy Marlins could be just the ticket. And this price! Get an ace outing for $15,000 and you’re in very good shape.

Martin Perez ($14,800) went through a slump in late-May and early-June. This puts him in the perfect setting to return value against the Royals. He’s similar to Canning in that big upside is a stretch, but a solid result is likely. Just what one wants to hear while on the toilet.

Joe Musgrove ($11,200) has a secretly valuable matchup against the Padres. They’re tied with the Tigers for the highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Musgrove has big platoon splits this season. San Diego has only one lefty swinger in their regular lineup – Eric Hosmer. The Pirates are kind bad against left-handed pitching. Eric Lauer ($12,000) waves hello.

Favorite Plays: Sale, Buehler, Paxton, Nola, Musgrove, Ariel Jurado,

Stack Targets: Wacha, Reynaldo Lopez, Tanner Anderson

4. SaberSim Says…

Despite my earlier crowing, the FDraft values aren’t yet loaded into SaberSim. So let’s look at DraftKings values like we always do. And what do you know, Sale, Bauer, Nola, Buehler, and Strasburg are the top-rated arms. Nola, Musgrove, Bauer, Sale, and Sonny Gray are the bargain plays.

Mike Trout, Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu, Austin Meadows, and Mookie Betts prance atop the hitter list. Chris Davis, Mike Zunino, Yan Gomes, Mac Williamson, and Rio Ruiz headline a group of bargain plays with whom I wish to not associate.

5. Garlicky

Mmm. Garlicky.

Umps never get this right.

Welp.