The Daily Grind: Ross, Duffy, Duffey
Agenda
- Daily DFS
- GB / FB Splits
- SaberSim Hi/Lo
- Tomorrow’s Targets – Duffy, Duffey, Dietrich, Almonte
- Factor Grid
1. Daily DFS – A Plethora
Early: I like when these small five game contests don’t have an obvious top pitcher. Tyson Ross is clearly the most talented, but he has his share of off days. He also costs the most by a fair margin. Alex Wood has been frustrating, and who knows what to expect from Derek Holland’s return from the disabled list. Perhaps you’ll gamble on Jesse Chavez surviving the Dodgers at home, or maybe Tom Koehler beats his Roadpark Blues for a second straight outing. For what it’s worth, SaberSim says it’s Ross by a landslide.
Late: The late slate has five aces and Jaime Garcia. You may want to avoid Stephen Strasburg (Coors Field), Noah Syndergaard (Camden Yards), and Jon Lester (lefty versus Tigers). Even Dallas Keuchel will have to survive a lefty bashing lineup. That leaves the top option, Corey Kluber. We’ll talk about him in more detail below.
If you’re looking for a combination of low cost and high ceiling, Ubaldo Jimenez is probably your best shot. He’s opposed by the Mets offense. Sure, they’re slightly better with Yoenis Cespedes and Michael Conforto, but color me unimpressed. As we all know, Jimenez is an enigma. He could implode in astounding fashion. Or he might throw eight shutout innings. It’s risky. Besides, he’ll have to defeat a superior pitcher in Syndergaard.
Stack Targets: Ervin Santana, Michael Montgomery, Adam Morgan, Joe Kelly, Jeremy Guthrie, Keyvius Sampson, Matt Cain, Daniel Norris, Nate Karns, Jorge de la Rosa, Jered Weaver
2. GB / FB Splits
The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.
We have 35 for you.
Addison Russell, Jorge Soler, Dexter Fowler v Daniel Norris
Justin Upton v Julio Teheran
Jung-ho Kang, Francisco Cervelli v Robbie Ray
Logan Forsythe v Dallas Keuchel
Jayson Werth v Jorge de la Rosa
Derek Dietrich v Wily Peralta
Delino Deshields, Mike Napoli v Michael Montgomery
Russell Martin v Adam Morgan
Adam LaRoche, Avisail Garcia, Jose Abreu v Jered Weaver
3. SaberSim Hi/Lo
Wrong: Corey Kluber is SaberSim’s 16th ranked pitcher today. Wrong, wrong, wrong, so wrong. Kluber is the top hurler with an easy matchup against Joe Kelly and the Red Sox. I have no intuition as to why SaberSim thinks he’ll perform well below his typical rates. At the moment, Vegas agrees with a mere -130 Moneyline.
Am I missing something? And if not, I wish I had a sportsbook because I’d love to bet that line. Was he recently shot by an errant meteorite? He hasn’t even slumped recently – he went the distance while allowing one run in three of his last four outings. It’s too bad the DFS sites don’t share the poor expectations.
Speaking of wrong, lefty J.A. Happ is projected to throw seven innings today – the most of any pitcher. Huh? Happ frequently fails to finish the fifth inning. I’m not sure why he would last seven against a solid Diamondbacks offense.
Right: The top four hitters today are Blue Jays. That makes a lot of sense against a mediocre southpaw. Sixth from the top is Kris Bryant against Daniel Norris. Bryant, of course, is a daily power threat, but he can do other things too. Mostly, I’m keen to exploit Norris.
The Tigers lefty isn’t major league ready in my opinion. Unfortunately, he’s one of those guys who can easily succeed at Triple-A without strong command or sequencing. While I understand that scouts love Norris, there are two glaring problems in his profile. His fastball is hammered, and his slider is even worse. The breaking ball is so bad that he ought to remove it from his repertoire. He still has a solid curve he can use in its place. At least he throws a good changeup. SaberSim thinks he’s the fourth worst pitcher today.
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Duffy, Duffey, Dietrich, Almonte
Pitchers to Start: Danny Duffy has been an exploit all season, but I like his chances for a win tomorrow. He’s opposed by Wade Miley. Don’t expect more than five or six innings from Duffy, but that should be enough to leave with a lead. Then he just needs the elite bullpen to hold it.
Also consider: Patrick Corbin, Nick Tropeano
Pitchers to Exploit: Why not make this an all Duff(e)y day. Twins rookie Tyler Duffy was atrocious in his debut. Last week, he turned things around with a six inning, one hit performance. Lest you get excited, he also walked five. Clearly he has some stuff, but the command is lackluster. I expect the Orioles to drub him out of the game in three innings.
Also consider: Miguel Gonzalez, Josh Tomlin, Ivan Nova, Martin Perez, Alfredo Simon, Wade Miley, John Lamb, Jerome Williams, Brad Hand, Mike Foltynewicz, Yohan Flande
Hitters (power): I do wish the Marlins weren’t so dead set upon blocking Derek Dietrich. The 25-year-old just keeps hitting with a .266/.376/.511 slash and neutral .309 BABIP. The problem is below average defense. For now, injuries have kept him in the lineup. He’s opposed by Williams. He’s an easy fantasy regular while he’s starting.
Also consider: Jonathan Schoop, Eddie Rosario, Mitch Moreland, Marlon Byrd, Eugenio Suarez, Yasmany Tomas, Chris Coghlan, Jayson Werth
Hitters (speed): Since acquiring him from the Padres, the Indians have tabbed Abraham Almonte as their fifth hitter. He’ll be swinging at the Yankee Stadium right field porch. While he does have a modicum of pop, his speed is much more reliable. Unlike Dietrich, Almonte is a pure stream pick due to a low average and OBP.
Also consider: Jose Ramirez, Rajai Davis, Rusney Castillo, Aaron Altherr, Cesar Hernandez
5. The Factor Grid
The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.
No weather factors today. Expect homer friendly conditions. Do watch out for rain in Texas, St. Louis, and Cincinnati.
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How do you feel about Ray tonight vs Pittsburgh?
Eh.
I’m tempted not to elaborate. In short, I think teams have figured out that patience alone can defeat Ray. Still it’s a good pitching park and a merely good opponent.
love me some Derek Dietrich vs right handed GB pitchers. He has been money the last few nights.
Fangraphs odds have Cleveland at 52.7% pre lineups, and Vegas at -130 would indicate 56.5%. So if one assumes that Fangraphs odds are the true odds and the public is just betting up an ace, then perhaps the smart money is actually on Boston?
That’s not quite true. Boston is -115 so Vegas is saying the odds are 53%. I also disagree with the accuracy of those odds. Joe Kelly’s always good for 5 runs against any lineup this year.
Weird, my book has Boston at +124 and I’m seeing them at around +120 elsewhere, which would put them at around 45% with Fangraphs putting them around 47%. Where are you seeing them at -115?
Attempting to rationalize both the Vegas and the FG odds– which I’m sure are built around similar algorithms– I think they still love Boston’s offense as Boston was around 60% yesterday with the E-Rod/Bauer matchup, which doesn’t really have a clear favorite on the pitching side. Related, a projected lineup that factors in Abraham Almonte, Jerry Sands, Giovanny Urshela, and Mike Aviles may do away with a lot of that Kluber advantage.
I completely get that Kluber is vastly superior to Kelly, but I’m thinking the teams’ offenses have a lot to do with these odds, as well as Boston playing at home. Cleveland is definitely the favorite, but it’s probably closer than the pitching matchup alone would indicate.
At no point was Boston ever -115. I was following lines all day and they hovered around the +120’s (i’m a losing baseball bettor). Sabersim did do a good job last night for my DFS lineups. totally on the ball with Kluber and convinced me to start Strasburg.
It was -115 the night before. I usually ignore the Vegas lines, but I have to report them for an article I prep Tuesday nights.
It happened again! SaberSim is amazing.
It’s a little funny that you were adamantly for Kluber having a good night. I saw no flaw in your logic, so I was in agreement.
I think something happened similarly recently when it predicted Jaime Garcia would turn out better than Max Scherzer. An author called that wrong as well, but Scherzer pitched 4 innings that night and Garcia went 7.
Yep that was me. Perhaps we’ll find some bias in my analysis if this keeps happening. I’m tracking it. God knows I’m not doing well this year. I’m -$26 on about $3500 of entries. Last year I cleared 40% ROI so I’m probably doing something a bit wrong (though at least I’m beating the rake).
Duffey will continue to prove you wrong
I love comments like this. I watched most of his start. You realize he pitched pretty poorly, right?