The Daily Grind: Rigorous Simulation

I’ve run important simulations.


  1. TDG Invitational
  2. Weather Reports
  3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
  4. SaberSim Says…
  5. Called Shot

1.The Daily Grind Invitational

Vincentspicks pranced to victory last Friday by riding high on a pair of Calhouns, a solo-Seager, uber-popular Jack Flaherty, and scarcely owned Zach Plesac. Congrats and Leaderboard

We have a seven-game contest on FantasyDraft.

2. Weather Reports

As of right now, Kansas City looks like it’s DOOMED… for a late start. The rain is forecast to leave by 9:00pm.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Yep, Sonny Gray ($21,100) is the king of this slate. And as you’ll see in a moment, he’d be the top arm even if he were facing a much harder opponent than the Stinky Fish. Pablo Lopez ($14,700) is back after 5,000 years on the injured list. I can only assume he’s on a tight pitch count which means tons of rotting bullpenners for the Reds offense to feast upon.

Adam Wainwright ($18,800) is ridiculously priced. Piss off FDraft. If he were the one facing the Marlins, this would add up. Instead, he’s visiting the Brewers. Waino posted a negative score against them last week. Gio Gonzalez ($15,800) is bizarrely not-cheap too.

Homer Bailey ($17,800) looks to be roughly par value if the rain doesn’t affect the pacing of this game. Like many of their mid-season acquisitions over the years, Bailey has tidied up his repertoire and taken a nice half-step forward. Plus, the Royals are easy pickin’s. I’ll pass on an overpriced Brad Keller ($16,800). He’s hidden on FDraft.

Also hidden is Eric Lauer ($13,000), but you probably don’t want him against the Dodgers. I know I don’t. Maybe if he cost $9,900. Dustin May ($16,000) looks like the most obvious alternative to Gray for top pitcher in the slate. The Padres are prone to right-handed pitching. I’m predicting six innings and six strikeouts. Toss in a little run support and you’ve got yourself a stew.

Jason Vargas ($15,200) offers blandness of an unprecedented degree. The Pirates can’t hit lefties, but Vargas isn’t exactly a typical major league southpaw. Joe Musgrove ($12,100) is probably a better value even though the Phillies offense is superior. Musgrove has bounced between gems and flops. One of those gems was a 30.5 point performance against the Phillies a little over a month ago. This time, he’s visiting Citizen’s Band Box.

I’ve been waiting a long time for Alex Young ($15,000) to reveal himself as one of the most terrible pitchers in a terrible year for pitchers. Thus far, he’s (mostly) thwarted me. A visit to Oracle Park figures to give him another thwartful opportunity. If he’s feeling chaotic, he’ll cough up eight runs in one-third of an inning. Random number generator Tyler Beede ($10,300) is rumored to be starting for the Gigantes.

J.A. Happ ($13,700) is a fine investment if you want a cheaper, better version of Vargas with an easier path to the win bonus.

Favorite Plays: Gray, Bailey, May, Happ

Stack Targets: Tommy Milone, Mugrove, Lopez et al, Young, Beede, Vargas, Gonzalez, Wainwright, Lauer

4. SaberSim Says…

Gray, Waino, Gonzalez, Vargas, and May carry the top projections according to our robot overlord. Every one refers to plural overlords, but a networked consciousness with many bodies is really just one entity. Singular. I digest. The best values are Beede, Musgrove, Gray, Vargas, and Gonzalez. I’m predicting 75 percent ownership for Gray in our contest. And honestly, a contrarian tact might still be the wrong play.

The bats of the day include Cody Bellinger, Will Smith, Christian Yelich, Aaron Judge, and Bryce Harper. Check out the value on Ryan O’Hearn, Josh Rojas, Lewis Brinson, Corban Joseph, and Isan Diaz. Vomit.

5. Called Shot

Called shot. Sorta.

I tried to do this at practice yesterday except the ball landed five feet to my right.

Been waiting on O’Hearn to reward bargain hunters for the better part of a month.

We hoped you liked reading The Daily Grind: Rigorous Simulation by Brad Johnson!

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Lopez did throw 6 IP in his last MILB start, but it was only 70 pitches so hard to imagine him being allowed too much more than that.

Also, the Royals have announced that Keller will not exceed 100 pitches the rest of the year as a way to manage his workload which almost certainly means 80-90 tops.***EDIT – just looked it up and Keller has thrown 100+ in 17 of his 27 starts this year with an average of 98.8 and a high of 118.