The Daily Grind: Returning to Civilization

I’m back from a mountain wedding which proved to be even more remote than I anticipated. My middle aged Corolla was not an appropriate vehicle. Most everything that’s happened since last Thursday morning has escaped my attention. So…

Edit: It appears this post misfired…

AGENDA

1. What Did I Miss?
2. Weather Reports
3. SaberSim Says…
4. TDG Invitational

1. What Did I Miss?

I saw the trades of Yonder Alonso and Sean Rodriguez. Who’s hurt? Who has surprisingly good or bad performance? About who should I prepare to field 50 questions in tomorrow’s chat? These are the things I would like to crowd source from you. Oh, and this apparently happened yesterday.

I know this turned out to be a good day for Manny Machado, but it wasn’t far removed from an 0-for-4 performance. He had a couple seeing eye singles and a couple fly balls that just found their way into open space. At times this season, he’s hit like a pitcher. You can see it in the first at bat – the lower half freezes and he kind of just shoots the ball to the opposite field. Were I an opposing pitcher, I wouldn’t throw anything away from the inside edge.

2. Weather Reports

Tonight’s tiny seven game slate should be safe. The biggest threats are in Pittsburgh (15 percent rain) and Washington D.C. (early afternoon storms). If said storms linger, we may see a delay.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Main Slate: The Scherz is back. Max Scherzer is set to host the Marlins. If you’re willing to take the risk of a repeat neck injury, he’s very easily the top pitcher on the docket. Scherzer averages around 50 FD points per outing and costs only $11,100. The injury risk does offset some of that blue chip sheen. He should receive plenty of run support against Chris O’Grady.

Jake Arrieta is a solid second choice for $9,800 – mostly because he’s visiting AT&T Park and the Giants’ limp offense. Arrieta has four straight quality starts, some of which even came against good opponents. He hasn’t pitched beyond the seventh inning this season, and he’s only reached double digit strikeouts once – way back in his second start of the season.

Carlos Martinez ($8,900) should be priced higher than Arrieta. While CMart has a tougher matchup against the Royals, he also benefits from visiting a pitcher’s park. Martinez frequently tops out at five or six innings. Unlike Arrieta, he is allowed to fire complete games on his best days. He has two such outings this season. Of all the pitchers, he’s the only one with an obvious chance to outperform a healthy Scherzer.

Reaching beyond the studs is a perilous proposition tonight. Ervin Santana actually costs more than CMart despite a worrisome matchup against the Brewers. They’re explosive and strikeout prone, adding volatility to Santana’s already volatile projections. Santana leads the league in complete games with five. Corey Kluber is the only other guy with more than two complete games. And he only has three.

Occasionally decent J.C. Ramirez is hosting the Orioles. They’ve had their offensive struggles. Across the aisle is Dylan Bundy who’s managed to average more points per game than Arrieta despite an unimpressive season. I can also see kicking the tires on Ian Kennedy or Trevor Williams.

Stack Targets: O’Grady, Tim Adleman, Matt Moore, Jordan Zimmermann, Brent Suter

4. SaberSim Says…

FanDuel values aren’t yet posted. I’ll use what SaberSim has to say about the DraftKings slate. These comments may not translate to today’s Invitational.

Scherzer, Arrieta, Matt Moore, Ramirez, and Santana are the top rated pitchers today. I’m shocked to see CMart listed seventh. Even before considering price, he’s an easy second best in my opinion. The Sim always loves Moore despite repeated failure to provide DFS value.

On the hitting front, Mike Trout, Miguel Sano, Ryan Braun, Brian Dozier, and Wil Myers are the darlings of the evening. Top values (these will be very different for FanDuel) include Jedd Gyorko, Luis Valbuena, Stephen Piscotty, and Myers.

5. The Daily Grind Invitational

When we last gathered for an Invitational, I managed to win with one of our lowest point totals of the year. I swear I only do well on low scoring days… Anywho, three of the top five scorers were new participants Welcome! And leaderboard.

We’re back on FanDuel for today.