The Daily Grind: Projection Lag

I had a little Twitter chat with Derek Carty and a reader about DFS outcomes this season. Apparently, “everybody” had a terrible April and great May (I know that’s true for me). Carty chalked it up to volatile pitching outings. I think it might have more to do with projection systems lagging at the start of the season. That’s my theory anyway. I have no plans to test it.


  1. TDG Invitational
  2. Weather Reports
  3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
  4. SaberSim Says…
  5. Old and New

1.The Daily Grind Invitational

Mkirksey overcame the Patrick Corbin landmine with the help of a Anthony Rendon double-dong. And Dakota Hudson’s gem! Congrats and Leaderboard.

You know the drill. We have an eight-game slate tonight on FantasyDraft.

If you have not signed up for FantasyDraft, please use this referral link for tracking purposes. If I understand properly, by using the referral, you will receive a 10 percent return on any rakes you pay.

2. Weather Reports

Aside from a very small risk of a storm in Atlanta, the weather looks splendid.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Justin Verlander ($22,400) costs a mint for a start against Brandon Woodruff ($14,900) and the Brew Crew. At first blush, that’s a lot to pay for a matchup involving a top offense. Upon closer examination, the Brewers have a 25 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers. While Verlander’s projected runs allowed may be as many as a full run higher than normal, his strikeout expectations are still in the seven to 11 range. I’m force to conclude he’s slightly underpriced. As for Woodruff, he induces enough strikeouts to be a sneaky contrarian play against the injury nerfed Astros lineup. I’d even consider using them both in the same lineup.

Mike Soroka ($21,400) has pitched like… well kind of like 2018 Aaron Nola. He’s drawn quite a few squishy matchups. The Pirates aren’t exactly a challenge, although they won’t just roll over and die either. Personally, I just can’t justify the expense. I much prefer the Mitch Keller ($14,100) side of the equation. While he’s far less likely to deliver positive results than Soroka, a good outing from Keller could top the slate. Or at least come close. It’s a massive volatility play.

Jose Berrios ($19,900) is hosting the Mariners. This is roughly par value for a powerful but strikeout prone opponent. It seems like it should be Marco Gonzales‘ ($13,900) turn in the rotation, but it looks like Cory Gearrin’s set to Open. I’m not 100 percent on Gonzales appearing although he does have proper rest. UPDATE: Gonzales will start on Friday.

Joey Lucchesi ($18,900) gets a boost from visiting the Giants, but that’s completely priced in. Zach Eflin ($17,100) and Miles Mikolas ($15,000) have similarly taut prices. At least Mikolas is visiting spacious Marlins Stadium. Eflin at Citizen’s Bank Park is scary.

Danny Duffy ($14,900) should enjoy facing the lowly Tigers. Daniel Norris ($10,100) is extremely cheap and should return over a point per $1,000. He consistently throws at least five innings.

Favorite Plays: Verlander, Keller, Woodruff

Stack Targets: Jordan Yamamoto, Shaun Anderson, Edwin Jackson, David Hess

If you don’t religiously read McDongenhagen’s prospect reports, then you might not know anything about Yamamoto. He’s a slop-throwing pitchability guy. Although he’s a right-hander, his profile is typically associated with southpaws. They mention Ryan Yarbrough as a comp.

4. SaberSim Says…

Verlander, Soroka, Berrios, Lucchesi, and Duffy are the preferred choices of The Sim. Norris, Hess, Duffy, Verlander, and Anderson are the value plays. So that makes Verlander and Duffy the best pair? We’ll see what my minion NotBurtReynolds has to say later this afternoon.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Nelson Cruz, Bryce Harper, Randal Grichuk, and Rhys Hoskins are the vaunted sluggers. Jack Mayfield, Vladito, Travis Shaw, Mac Williamson, and Rowdy Tellez are the bargains.

5. Old and New


This is typical Fernando Tatis Jr. He’s always looking to do this.

It’s safe to say he had a good game.

We hoped you liked reading The Daily Grind: Projection Lag by Brad Johnson!

Please support FanGraphs by becoming a member. We publish thousands of articles a year, host multiple podcasts, and have an ever growing database of baseball stats.

FanGraphs does not have a paywall. With your membership, we can continue to offer the content you've come to rely on and add to our unique baseball coverage.

Support FanGraphs

You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam

newest oldest most voted

Tigers stack looks intriguing from a contrarian stand point. Tigers have hit lefties considerably better than righties for the last year and a half. Betting market likes Detroit tonight.

A N0n
A N0n

Agreed. Tigers love to swing at both good and bad pitches, while Duffy fills up the zone with less than stellar stuff.