The Daily Grind: Prep, Gio, Odorizzi, Hernandez

Agenda

1. DFS Prep Pt 1 – Weather
2. Daily DFS – Gio, TBD
3. Tomorrow’s Targets – Odorizzi, Nova, Johnson, Hernandez
4. Factor Grid

1. DFS Prep Pt 1 – Weather

A common question I receive relates to the different preparatory steps I take in setting a DFS roster. Weather can have the single biggest influence on who I pick (for obvious reasons). We’ll talk about my process today.

I form first impressions at 6:30 AM while penning this column. Daily Baseball Data has a nice weather tool. It breaks down rain and storm risk by hour. The data is supplied by Weather Underground. This is what I list in the Factor Grid. Today, Kansas City has a 50 percent chance for storms declining to 43 percent. I list that as 50 percent.

The early reports color my initial picks, but I only discard extremely risky game. For starting pitchers, the threat of a rain delay is sufficient to send me on to Plan B. With hitters, I usually don’t worry unless a postponement is likely. However, if I wanted to use anybody from tonight’s Royals game, I’d set them in my early lineups.

About an hour before the contest begins, I’ll recheck the weather tool. At that point, it’s usually clear which games will be affected by rain. I also know the teams I want to use in my lineups. I’ll then go to weather.com and use their interactive maps to check the quality of rain. Are we looking at deluges or a fine mist? How spotty are the storms? Other related questions here?

On a similar but different topic. I also care about the home run conditions for a given game. For some parks like Coors Field, I’m not overly concerned with the rating. It’s certainly encouraging to see a 10 of 10 in Denver, but I’ll still use the park when it’s poorly rated.

Other locations like Wrigley Field are greatly affected by conditions. When it’s rated in the eight to 10 range, I know the wind is blowing out. Conversely, if the rating is below a six, the wind is probably blowing in. Wrigley is the most extreme example of weather factors in play. California parks can be affected by something called the marine layer. Ask a Californian to explain it.

2. Daily DFS – Gio, TBD

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: The White Sox and Cubs have an afternoon start. Against each other if that wasn’t clear. Their game stands alone.

Late: One of my favorite things about DFS is solving a new problem every day. Tonight, the issue is with the aces. Madison Bumgarner is hyper-expensive against the Phillies. He’s also opposed by Cole Hamels. Gerrit Cole lines up opposite Lance Lynn. Michael Pineda is set to scrum with Clay Buchholz.

The obvious “safe” play is Gio Gonzalez. The Nationals are visiting Baltimore in the lamely titled Battle of the Beltway. He’s opposed by Chris Tillman’s 5.57 ERA. Gonzalez is not without risk. Camden Yards is a homer friendly park, and the weather conditions are very favorable for bombs tonight. Three starts ago, Gonzalez posted a negative point total.

The Rockies will use TBD tonight in place of David Hale. He strained his groin in long relief last night. It’s not a big night for stacks so this could be an important matchup.

Stack Targets: Tillman, David Phelps, Ian Kennedy, Danny Duffy, Justin Verlander

3. Tomorrow’s Targets – Odorizzi, Nova, Johnson, Hernandez

Pitchers to Start: Jake Odorizzi is back in action. If he happens to be on your waiver wire, now is the time to pounce. Shockingly, he’s actually 83 percent owned on Yahoo. And it’s not because of recent waiver moves, owners held with throughout his entire injury. Generally, I cut players with his skill set (roughly 8.00 K/9, 3.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) when they’re injured.

I recognize that solid 2014 season and 2.47 ERA in 12 starts suggest a possible breakout. However, his breakout has made him a viable mixed leaguer rather than a stream pick. You know a number of the owners who kept him have needed additional DL slots.

Also consider: Patrick Corbin, Anthony DeSclafani, Eduardo Rodriguez

Pitchers to Exploit: Ivan Nova has not dazzled since returning from the disabled list. That’s not to say he’s pitched poorly. It’s hard to critique a 2.65 ERA over 17 innings. His fastball is back to 93 mph. There is hope for a rebound to his 2013 performance. While he settles in, I’m more concerned about his 4.76 K/9, 3.71 BB/9, and 5.13 xFIP. The Red Sox aren’t a terrifying matchup, but they still have good games on occasion.

Also consider: Alfredo Simon, Matt Wisler, Jorge de la Rosa, Chris Bassitt, Colby Lewis, David Buchanan, Ryan Vogelsong

Hitters (power): Chris Johnson doesn’t play consistently. He’ll shift to the bench once Freddie Freeman returns. Tomorrow, he’ll have the platoon advantage against de la Rosa at Coors Field. This is strictly a one day plug-and-play.

Also consider: Scooter Gennett, Yonder Alonso, Chris Young, Clint Robinson, David Murphy, Andrelton Simmons, Eddie Rosario

Hitters (speed): Cesar Hernandez has sprinted to 54 percent owned on Yahoo. If he’s still available to you, he has useful position eligibilities and a solid matchup against Vogelsong. The ownership spike has occurred because he has nine steals over his last 13 games. He also has three multi-steal games.

Hernandez isn’t in the same class as a Dee Gordon or Billy Hamilton, but he’s a useful base thief. He could take another 20 bags over the rest of the season. Anticipate a weak batting line – something like .270/.330/.355. There is upside for slightly more.

Also consider: Angel Pagan, Cesar Hernandez, Will Venable, Brock Holt, Danny Espinosa

4. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Watch out for storms in Kansas City. You’ll notice the grid skews towards pitcher friendly parks tonight.

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