Revisiting and Revising Bold Predictions

I had two goals going into my initial Bold Predictions: To go really bold, and to not repeat what the other RotoGraphers had done. I think I accomplished both and now that we’re halfway through season the season, I’ll see how the predictions look and revise the ones where I missed big.

1. Jorge Soler will hit at least 33 home runs

An injury, spike in strikeout rate and reduction in hard contact all conspired to make the first half one long rainy day for Soler. I remain optimistic for his chances to be great in the second half, but he isn’t going to hit 33 homers.

Revised, not-as-bold prediction: Jorge Soler will hit at least 18 home runs. Soler is sitting on four homers through 54 games, so clearly I’m buying into his promise over his 2015 production. Soler’s struggles look like a learning curve issue to me. Pitchers have been throwing him way fewer fastballs and he hasn’t adjusted.

2. Tony Cingrani will be a top-three closer for the final two months of the season

There were two important premises for this BP to come true. First, Aroldis Chapman had to be traded. This could happen. Second, Cingrani had to be excellent in the bullpen. This did not happen. He was mediocre and is now in the minors rehabbing a shoulder injury and being stretched out to be a starter.

Revised, not-as-bold prediction: Tony Cingrani will make five starts this season. There will be some rotation space available if the Reds trade Johnny Cueto. Cingrani finished 2013 with a 3.31 SIERA and solid 18.2 K-BB% before a bad 63.1 innings in 2014, so he’s a guy to keep in the back of your mind.

3. Danny Salazar will be a top-35 starting pitcher

Considering Salazar was demoted to Triple-A in late March, I feel much better about this one than I figured I would. He’s currently 44th on the ESPN Player Rater. The signs are there (as they have been in the past). His K-BB% is eighth best in baseball. His SwStr% is 11th best.

4. Michael Bourn will steal at least 35 bases

Looking back at my BP, part of me felt this was a bad idea from the start. That part of me was correct.

Revised, not-as-bold prediction: Michael Bourn will steal at least 15 bases. Bourn has seven steals on 11 attempts. ZiPS projects another nine this season, while Steamer projects another seven. Really, this was a complete misfire as he’s been demonstrably worse than even last season’s dud and, by wRC+, one of the 10 worst hitters in baseball.

5. Arismendy Alcantara will be a top-seven second baseman

I think Alcantara got a bit of a raw deal with a demotion after 11 games featuring a .133 BABIP. Regardless, my prediction really needed everything to go right for him and almost nothing did in the first half.

Revised, not-as-bold prediction: Arismendy Alcantara will total at least 30 home runs plus steals. Alcantara is striking out more and running less in Triple-A than he did in his stop last season. Even so, he has 10 home runs and 12 steals. Combine those 22 with his major-league total of (tallying…) one (!) and he’s at 23. Thirty is well within reach.

6. Alex Rodriguez will hit at least 20 home runs

We’re halfway through the season and he’s sitting on 16 homers. Honestly I’m even surprised at how well this one has turned out. If this wasn’t a 39-year-old who has only played 100 games in a season once since 2010, I’d consider it a lock. But if this wasn’t a 39-year-old who has only played 100 games in a season once since 2010, it wouldn’t have been a bold prediction.

7. George Springer will not be a top-25 outfielder

Springer is still the worst hitter in baseball at making contact on pitches in the zone. Even so, he hit .264 before his wrist injury, a pleasant surprise for fantasy owners. My biggest hesitation in the preseason was his speed, which turned out to be a non-issue as he stole 14 bases in 75 games. While his wrist injury is a concern for his power once he returns, his speed should keep him near the top-25 mark. This one will be close.

8. Francisco Liriano will be a top-25 starting pitcher

Liriano’s groundball and strikeout tendencies have always been fantastic. In the original article, I said a walk rate closer to his career rate and a little more luck in the wins department would make this an easy call. So far, that’s been the story.

9. Carlos Gonzalez will easily outperform Michael Brantley

I just had to stick that “easily” in there, which makes this prediction feel much worse. In an odd twist of fate, Gonzalez has played more games than Brantley in the first half. It still hasn’t helped this prediction come true. I was a big fan of a bounce back for Gonzalez but he’s been only slightly better than he was last season, and a little more unlucky. He’s still not running or hitting enough to make this much of a contest. But because of Brantley’s persistent back injury, it’s not a huge longshot that I could back into this one.

Revised, not-as-bold prediction: Carlos Gonzalez will hit 25 home runs. Even with this reduced version of Gonzalez, he’s hit 11 home runs and Steamer is projecting another 13. As for Brantley, I’ve soured on basing predictions around injuries so I’ll leave him out of this. He’s been great, even with the back injury.

10. Yasiel Puig will not be a top-12 outfielder

Injury aside, my issues with Puig remain. His talent feels immense, yet he hasn’t produced much power or speed so fantasy owners were paying for a huge leap by drafting him early. He’s been good when healthy, but I feel OK about this one.