The Daily Grind: Posey, Whitley, Napoli

Agenda

1. A Look at My Rebuild
2. Daily DFS – Posey
3. GB / FB Splits
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Whitley, Kelly, Napoli, Stubbs
5. Factor Grid

1. A Look at My Rebuild

I’m in the process of overhauling my home league roster. The club is in last place due to some shockingly poor production. The team I started with should have contended in home runs and OPS, but I’m dead last in both categories. Only Giancarlo Stanton has performed up to snuff.

It’s a keeper league with steep inflation ($7 per season, $310 budget), so I still have something to do over the next 4.5 months. The league also offers a small financial reward for any owner finishing 10th or better. The intent is to lessen the frequency of massive fire sale trades. This is our second year with the rule and it’s worked so far.

As the proud owner of a dozen underperforming assets, I have to decide who might be a keeper and who is a trade candidate. I recently dealt Ian Desmond ($38 to keep) and Mark Trumbo ($28) for Anthony Rendon ($20) and Yasmani Grandal ($15).

I’m not thrilled with the return, but Desmond is flirting with the abyss. He’ll probably rebound, but it felt safer from a rebuilding standpoint to cash in now. A healthy Rendon is one of the cheapest top 20 players in the league, so it seemed reasonable to take the risk. Grandal will be a little pricey to keep. We’ll see how he performs over the remainder of the season.

I’m currently shopping Jose Bautista for a cheap stud. If he returns to form, he’ll be a $43 keeper. If he continues his hurt shoulder routine, he’ll land in the draft pool. I’m unlikely to shop other top talents like Stanton ($43) and Carlos Gomez ($29) unless I’m getting a player like Kris Bryant in return. His owner and I do not see eye to eye about future value (I discount it by ~75%), so nothing appears imminent.

Rebuilds are both fun and educational, so I’ll pen some periodic updates about this one.

2. Daily DFS – Posey

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: Three games are in the early slate. I might be inclined to gather up a bushel of lefties at Progressive Field. That game starts much later than the other two. It wouldn’t surprise me if the lineups weren’t released in time.

Late: Brett Oberholtzer is a fly ball pitcher and a lefty. Buster Posey offers potent splits against fly ball pitchers and lefties, independently. I don’t have access to a combined split, but I imagine his OPS is over 1.000 against pitchers like Oberholtzer. The game is at Minute Maid Park, so we don’t have to worry about Posey’s cavernous home park.

If there’s a downside, it’s that everybody will (and should) be in on Posey tonight. I wouldn’t be surprised by a 50 percent ownership rate. Even though it’s a fantastic matchup, you might want to fade the pick. If you do select Posey, you better hope he outperforms the other catchers.

Stack Targets: Wade Miley, Jeremy Hellickson, Miguel Gonzalez, Ricky Nolasco, Kyle Lobstein, Eric Stults, Jose Quintana, Taijuan Walker

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

Jeff has tabbed only 19 names today, but we can still discuss my favorites.

Buster Posey and Justin Maxwell vs. Brett Oberholtzer
Chris Carter vs. Tim Hudson
Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, Garrett Jones, and Chase Headley vs. Nate Karns
Drew Stubbs vs. Hector Santiago
Russell Martin vs. Miguel Gonzalez

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Whitley, Kelly, Napoli, Stubbs

Pitchers to Start: Chase Whitley doesn’t have overwhelming stuff, but he makes it work with above average command and control of a five pitch repertoire. He likes to use his changeup as a strike out pitch. The Rays are prone to whiffs, so this is a solid matchup. Whitley could be one of those guys who quietly establishes himself as a fantasy asset.

Also consider: Jon Niese, Brett Anderson

Pitchers to Exploit: Joe Kelly throws 97 mph cheddar and racks up ground balls. He also has suspect command. His repertoire looks like it should be fine. His four seamer is well above average. Unfortunately, he mostly throws a merely average sinker. His slider is very good, but he has to work his way into a pitcher’s count to receive the full benefit of the pitch. There is growth potential with Kelly, especially if somebody convinces him to follow the example of Collin McHugh. For now, he’s a possible stacking target against the M’s.

Also consider: Mike Pelfrey, Ross Detwiler, Jeremy Guthrie, Travis Wood, Matt Andriese, Eddie Butler

Hitters (power): Mike Napoli’s peripherals look relatively normal, yet he has a weak .171/.287/.305 line. Most of that can be blamed upon a .195 BABIP. His ownership rate has plunged below 50 percent. He’ll have the platoon advantage against Roenis Elias.

Also consider: DJ LeMahieu, Seth Smith, John Mayberry

Hitters (speed): Stubbs is recommended today because he’s up against a ground ball wielding southpaw. He’ll have the same advantages tomorrow against Anderson. Of course, he still has .094/.171/.281 line with a .100 BABIP and 55.6 percent strikeout rate this season. It’s been a weird one.

Also consider: Odubel Herrera

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Rangers game will probably be cancelled.

The Link. Even though it’s mid-May, the weather is chilly at most stadiums tonight. Don’t by shy about chasing down some of those 8’s.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.