The Daily Grind: Personal Playing Update

A new week and a new Grind. Let’s get to it.

AGENDA

1. Personal Playing Update
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. Fade Fade Fade
5. SaberSim Says…
6. TDG Invitational Returns!

1. Personal Playing Update

Yesterday’s TDG didn’t happen because I decided to bet on a rainout of my own game rather than write the column on Saturday night. I did write some other Sunday columns on Saturday which factored in my decision of “screw it, I can do it later.” Well, we just barely managed to play. Unfortunately, former Cardinals prospect Chris Perry carved through our lineup, showing none of the command issues that plagued him in Double-A. His velocity was well below the reported 94-96 mph. He might have been living 81-85 mph with a crackling one-to-seven curve ball. The changeup was a minus pitch. Perry is expected to make a couple more starts in our league before seeking an Indy League role.

As for personal performance, I didn’t get to bat so I wasn’t a part of the strikeout parade. I did throw a couple innings without feeling like my shoulder was dying – or already dead. It even feels merely “crappy” today. Usually I need several days to improve to the “crappy” status. I have no idea what kind of velocity I was getting – more than in recent seasons. That probably means mid-70s. I cast some 20-grade curve balls, but a few of them flashed average-plus (55 grade) on the 20-80 scale. I made a handful of mistakes middle-middle, and they were hit hard. Otherwise, the outing was encouraging. The mistakes were mostly made when trying to elevate the fastball, something I’ll need to figure out if I want to use the curve to best effect.

Unfortunately, now I’m concerned about my elbow. I have a coin sized bruise on the inside of my elbow and there’s mild discomfort when I straighten my arm. I felt no symptoms while pitching. I have felt some very mild forearm stiffness during other training sessions. I’m really hoping it’s from hitting my elbow on something rather than a rupture of some muscle or connective tissue.

2. Weather Reports

Baltimore is sharing the same weather system as me. They’re likely to receive a steady rain all day. If a bunch of men can make a game happen with six baseballs, the Rays and Orioles have a chance too.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Main Slate: All nine games are a part of the main slate. We have some interesting choices among the pitchers. Chris Archer is easily the top arm, but we’ll need to see a real improvement in the Baltimore weather report before he’s viable. The O’s have a boom or bust offense – a perfect target for massive GPPs.

Jason Vargas has already worked his way up to the third most expensive price tag. Paul Sporer took a closer look at Vargas late last week. Vargas has probably improved by using his fastball more proactively and gaining a grade on his changeup. However, he should remain prone to blow up outings. A matchup against the White Sox offers opportunity for good and bad outcomes. The opponent is weak, but they play in a band box. Balls fly at the GSpot.

Fourth most expensive is Francisco Liriano. After his Opening Week disaster, Liriano has turned in two really strong outings. The Angels aren’t particularly strikeout prone which could eat into Liriano’s value. However, their lineup is largely exploitable aside from a certain fish.

Fifth on the price list is Amir Garrett. I still don’t understand why the stuff is playing up, nor do I think he can maintain anything close to a 1.37 BB/9. Based on his minor league results, even a sub-3.50 BB/9 would be a surprise. He’s a worth GPP gamble due to his matchup against the strikeout happy Brewers.

Hyun-Jin Ryu is making a start at AT&T Park. Aside from allowing home runs on six of 11 fly balls, he looks like his normal self. Like me, Ryu probably just missed a few spots while shaking off the rust. Don’t expect a big strikeout total.

Stack Targets: Tyler Anderson, Phil Hughes, Martin Perez, Matt Garza, Jhoulys Chacin, Ubaldo Jimenez, Matt Cain

4. Fade Fade Fade

Stars: While I’m very hesitant to pay top dollar for Zack Greinke at Chase Field, he is coming off an eight inning drubbing of the Padres. And he’s facing those self-same Padres again. Everybody is so worried about the drop in velocity that they forget he’s always been a wily pitcher.

Joe Ross isn’t on the FanDuel pitcher list for some reason. You can find him by unchecking “only show probable pitcher” at the bottom of the list. Mark Reynolds is priced with the big bats because of Coors Field. Rockies stacks will probably include a different first baseman.

Anthony Rendon is another Coors Field play who might slip through the cracks via combination of price and perceived middling performance. Teammate Bryce Harper costs $5,500 AND he’s facing a lefty. Wanna bet people shy away?

Bargains: The cheapest pitcher is also the best bargain gamble. Tyler Anderson has the oh-so-difficult job of holding the Nationals offense down at Coors Field. Anderson is allowing substantially more hard contact this year. I’d love to see him flash his 2016 ability before investing. Especially at Coors.

Bigger names will hide Austin Hedges and Jett Bandy on the catcher list. They’re both in the midst of homer binges. Hedges will see Grienke while Bandy has the platoon advantage versus Garrett.

Chris Owings was a hot property early in the season. Now he has a decent matchup against the Padres. Owings hits the ball hard on the ground. It’s not a bad strategy for Chase Field’s ultra fast infield. He’s also shown a willingness to run this year.

5. SaberSim Says…

Archer, Vargas, Greinke, Liriano, and Miguel Gonzalez are the top rated pitchers of the day. Qualms equal none. Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, Harper, Trea Turner, and Carlos Gonzalez headline a Coors dominated hitting slate.

6. The Daily Grind Invitational

Congrats to Madddmaxxx for his second contest win of the season. Corey Kluber, Hedges, and Anthony Rizzo supplied the bulk of the firepower. The leaderboard is updated.

Today’s contest is on FanDuel.