The Daily Grind: Peavy Conley, Bour, Ketel

Agenda

1. T-Minus Two
2. Daily DFS
3. SaberSim Observations
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Conley, Lopez, Bour, Ketel
5. Factor Grid

 

1. T-Minus Two

About two weeks ago, I promised to do a post on the last day of the season. This is a friendly reminder that such a post will exist. So skip church or yard work or whatever else it is you do on Sunday morning to participate in one last day of DFS analysis. I also plan to compile some of my favorite stuff from the season.

2. Daily DFS – Peavy, Verlander, Lackey

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: Thanks to rain outs, there are four early games. Noah Syndergaard is clearly the top pitcher, but I’m not sure just how deep he’ll be allowed to go. Seven innings should be viewed as a ceiling. It’s not like Gio Gonzalez, Yordano Ventura, or even Colby Lewis will work deeper into the game.

Hector Santiago and Ivan Nova have both struggled late in the season. For that reason, the obvious offenses to target are Texas and Baltimore.

Afternoon: It’s a three game afternoon. Chris Archer and Marco Estrada will be the most interesting game to watch, but Jake Peavy’s start against the Rockies is easily the place to go. He’s pitching deceptively well this season. With Chris Rusin on the other side of the matchup, Peavy should land an easy victory.

Tom Koehler has terrible numbers on the road, but he’s still a decent alternative. He’ll face Aaron Harang and the Phillies.

Late: The main slate includes 11 games. Keep an eye on the second game of these doubleheaders. The Phillies and Marlins almost certainly won’t post lineups in time. You didn’t want to use their hitters anyway.

Zack Greinke, Max Scherzer, Matt Harvey, and Corey Kluber are the big names. Kluber hasn’t been right since he returned from a minor injury in mid-September. As a result, he costs just $9,700 on FanDuel. I can’t tell if something is wrong, but it’s not hard to imagine him tossing a surprise complete game. Maybe that doesn’t qualify as a surprise.

Speaking of complete games, Justin Verlander still has the occasional good day. When those roll around, he can go 120 pitches deep and pick up a complete game victory. For $9,000 on FanDuel, I see him as a solid GPP play. Of course, for the same amount, you can roster John Lackey against the helpless Braves offense. Lackey almost always throws seven innings.

It’s not a great day to play in the bottom of the pool. The cheapest I’d go is $7,400 for Roenis Elias. He’s opposite the A’s and Sean Nolin. I’m putting my playoff hopes on his back in one traditional fantasy league where I need a win. That’s a solid bet. For DFS purposes, I’m not sure I see how he could possibly keep pace with the top pitchers. I think you have to go with somebody in the $8,000 and over bin.

Stack Targets: Nova, Lewis, Rusin, Harang, Brandon Finnegan, Craig Breslow, Tyler Wagner, Justin Nicolino, Alec Asher, Jeremy Hellickson, Nolin, Robbie Erlin

3. SaberSim Observations

Scherzer, Harvey, and Syndergaard have the three top projections of the day. Greinke is next best. Shelby Miller and Erik Johnson are ranked sixth and seventh. Miller’s strong projection caught me off guard. The Cardinals have a solid offense against right-handed pitching. Maybe SaberSim is anticipating Matt Carpenter missing another day. Lackey has to be the favorite here, right? I can’t bring myself to see it any other way.

If Miller was a surprise, Johnson is a complete stumper. The Tigers lineup is at half strength, but that doesn’t mean Johnson will have it easy. His decent 3.45 ERA over five starts is belied by a 6.07 FIP (5.16 xFIP). Like with Lackey, I can’t possibly pick Verlander to underperform Johnson.

With the Rangers opposite southpaw Santiago, Mike Napoli is the fifth ranked hitter. That’s, uh, bullish. There’s a chance he’ll only get three plate appearances, especially if the game is close. I do like Napoli as a DFS bargain today. I just can’t justify taking him ahead of Nelson Cruz. At least not without including prices.

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Conley, Lopez, Bour, Ketel

Pitchers to Start: Once again, I’ve relaxed my threshold for inclusion as a starter. I’m desperate, you’re desperate, we’re all desperate. It’s actually a solid final slate of pitchers. It’s often a lot uglier than this on the final day of the season.

Happ is the guy I want, but I’d settle for Adam Conley against the Marlins. Conley is the Marlins version of Jerad Eickhoff. Both pitchers have too much in common with the worst pitchers in the league. However, they’ve figured out how to get the most out of mediocre stuff. In Conley’s case, his fastball, change, and slider have all rated out as average pitches. He’s sequenced and command them well. I see him as a 4.20 ERA pitcher. He has a good shot at a win and quality start against David Buchanan and the Phillies.

Also consider: Nick Tropeano, J.A. Happ, Rick Porcello, Dan Haren, Vidal Nuno, Chris Bassitt, Lance McCullers, Robbie Ray

Pitchers to Exploit: Jorge Lopez debuted last week to mixed results. He allowed three runs in five innings. He also showed off a 94 mph fastball and 11.7 percent swinging strike rate. His start has a wide range of possible outcomes. Given his swing-and-miss stuff, the Cubs could roll over and whiff 10 times over six frames. Or they might feast on mistakes and send Lopez packing after a couple innings.

Also consider: Chris Tillman, Matt Wisler, Buchanan, Josh Smith, Christian Bergman, Matt Moore, Frankie Montas

Hitters (power): Justin Bour has bashed five home runs over his last eight games. He has the candy matchup against Buchanan at Citizen’s Bank Park. As much as has been said about Bour, he’s produced just 0.2 WAR on the season. He’s a replacement level first baseman. That doesn’t mean he can’t chip in one more home run for your fantasy club.

Also consider: Chris Colabello, Jed Lowrie, Michael Conforto, Mark Canha, Seth Smith, Aaron Hicks, Eddie Rosario, Eduardo Escobar, Chris Coghlan, Ben Paulsen, Justin Morneau, Pedro Alvarez, Darin Ruf, Aaron Altherr, Maikel Franco

Hitters (speed): Ketel Marte has done an excellent job as the Mariners leadoff man. He’s hitting .281/.349/.405. If they can get this kind of production out of him next year, they should have a good season. Marte isn’t a prodigious base thief, but he can swipe something like 20 bags over a full season.

Also consider: Ender Inciarte, Kelby Tomlinson, Jordy Mercer, Ichiro Suzuki, Jon Jay

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

It’s another wet day, but we might avoid any postponed games. Cleveland and Atlanta both have a 60 percent chance of rain throughout the day. Other parks have anywhere between a 10 and 30 percent risk of rain. It’s going to be a soggy day for fans. DFS participants may want to focus on domed/West coast parks.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.