The Daily Grind: Park Factors Matter

by
August 31, 2018

The Longo we keep using him, the more it hurts to remember. Lefty masher Evan Longoria is among tomorrow’s top waiver wire targets in Streaming Wars.

AGENDA

  1. TDG Invitational
  2. Weather Reports
  3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
  4. SaberSim Says…
  5. Yankee Stadium

1. The Daily Grind Invitational

Mikespranger managed to get away with a surprise negative performance from J.A. Happ. Victor Martinez and German Marquez bailed him out. Congrats and Leaderboard.

The final contest of August runs tonight on FantasyDraft. We had an enormous 20 entry overlay yesterday. A $2 entry had an expected value of $3.47. Don’t miss out.

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2. Weather Reports

Philadelphia and Washington D.C. have a modest risk of rain this evening. Keep an eye on it.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Main Slate: Luis Severino is the top priced arm of the evening. He seems to have arrested a recent slump. For $22,000, he looks like an easy pick opposite a bad Tigers offense. Lightning can’t strike twice, right?

Next up is Zack Greinke ($21,200). He’s overpriced for a visit to Los Angeles opposite Hyun-Jin Ryu ($15,800). In fact, the Ryu side of the equation is a modest bargain. The southpaw has pitched relatively well since returning from injury. Even without a win bonus, a 20 point performance is possible.

Zack Wheeler ($20,500) is another quality target. A visit to AT&T Park is favorable and not only because the venue is so pitcher friendly. The Giants offense has recently lost Buster Posey and Andrew McCutchen. Brandon Belt is slumping too.

Why is Corey Kluber the fourth priciest pitcher? A $19,900 is beyond a steal for a should-be-$24,000 pitcher. Will every lineup include Kluber? Possibly. I mean, no, not actually. But possibly. Tyler Glasnow ($15,800) is on the other side of this one. He’s overpriced.

The new Mike Fiers ($18,700) is racking up innings and strikeouts with aplomb. If there’s one issue, it’s that the Athletics will quickly go to the bullpen at the first sign of trouble. They can’t afford to fuss around against their division and Wild Card rival. For more on Fiers, click his name then select Jeff Sullivan’s latest article.

Jameson Taillon ($17,800) is often underpriced. This is not one of those days. I prefer the Anibal Sanchez ($15,300) side of the equation both outright and as a value.

Michael Kopech ($17,600) sighting! Too bad he’s opposed by the Red Sox. I don’t think he’s ready for an opponent of this quality. Although he could come out on top, I won’t be betting on it happening. Nathan Eovaldi ($17,100) may be the better play against the strikeout prone White Sox.

Some others to consider include Nick Pivetta ($15,400), Aaron Sanchez ($12,300), and Brett Kennedy ($8,200). Pivetta offers strikeout potential but has a bad matchup. Sanchez has a tasty pairing against the Marlins, but he’s also sucked all season. No reason to mince words. Kennedy is how you pair Severino or other pricey arms with an expensive stack. The Rockies aren’t very scary on the road.

Stack Targets: Kennedy, Stephen Gonsalves, Homer Bailey, Drew Hutchison, Andrew Cashner, Antonio Senzatela, Aaron Sanchez, Brad Keller, Framber Valdez, Jordan Zimmermann

A Twins stack is tempting tonight.

4. SaberSim Says…

Severino, Kluber, Eovaldi, Greinke, and Pivetta are the top rated arms tonight. I have serious concerns about Pivetta at home against the Cubs. There’s more meltdown risk than SaberSim recognizes. Kennedy, Senzatela, Sanchez, Severino, and Kluber are the top values. On the hitting side, Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, Jose Ramirez, Christian Yelich, and Matt Carpenter lead the way. Logan Forsythe, Steven Souza, Greg Garcia, Miguel Sano, and Elvis Andrus look like bargains.

5. Yankee Stadium

This is why we talk about using park factors when picking your lineups.

Fuck the DH.

However, I’m not opposed to rules about fielder positioning.





 

You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam

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MatthewMember since 2017
7 years ago

$15,800 for a guy (Glasnow) with 25.3% K-BB% since moving to the AL does not seem over priced to me. I get that it’s a small sample size, but he’d been working on adjustments before the trade so it make sense that there’s been a change in his statistical profile. Even if he regresses to 20% K-BB%, that sounds like a great GPP play to me. Kluber’s K rate and Sw Str% haven’t been this low since 2013.

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Brad JohnsonMember
7 years ago
Reply to  Matthew

I guess I could see it working for a 10,000+ entry GPP. I have Glasnow projected to 4.1 innings though.

1