Bullpen Report: August 31, 2018
It’s probably a stretch to say that Brad Boxberger is sharing the Diamondbacks’ closer duties, but for the second night in a row, he was not alone in a ninth-inning save situation. In Wednesday night’s series finale against the Giants, Andrew Chafin was brought out to begin the ninth inning against Brandon Crawford. Once Chafin got the strikeout, he gave way to Boxberger, who finished off the 3-1 win. Then on Thursday night, the Diamondbacks had another 3-1 lead to protect — this time, against the Dodgers. Once again, a lefty (Cody Bellinger) led off, and it was Chafin who was assigned to retire him. The déjà vu continued, as Chafin struck Bellinger out, and he was followed by Boxberger, who struck out Chris Taylor and Yasiel Puig.
Given that Boxberger has some serious lefty/righty splits (.347 wOBA against lefties, .254 wOBA against righties), it makes sense to let Chafin (.246 wOBA against lefties) handle the leadoff hitter in a ninth-inning save situation when that batter is left-handed. Chafin is also an antidote to Boxberger’s home run tendencies (1.53 HR/9), as he is the only qualified reliever who has yet to allow a homer this season. While it’s hard to imagine that Chafin will get many (or any) saves out this arrangement, it should decrease the chances of Boxberger blowing saves.
The Yankees do clearly have a save-sharing arrangement, but over the past week, Dellin Betances has emerged as Aaron Boone’s primary option. When Boone brought Betances in to protect a 7-5 lead against the Tigers on Thursday night, it was the third time in six days that he was pitching in the ninth inning with a tie or a lead of no more than three runs. Betances had given Boone every reason to trust him in critical situations. Entering Thursday’s game, he had allowed only two runs over his last 33.2 innings with 58 strikeouts, 14 walks and a .392 OPS allowed.
Baseball being baseball, Betances allowed the American League’s worst offense (as measured by wOBA) to come back and take the lead. He issued a one-out walk to Nicholas Castellanos and then lost the lead on Victor Martinez’s home run. Niko Goodrum made it back-to-back homers by launching a Betances knuckle curve just inside the right field foul pole. Despite the poor results, I am holding back on giving Betances the “Not Very Stable” tag in the closer grid. He showed no dip in velocity and his knuckle curve was otherwise effective, yielding three swinging strikes and three called strikes in just 13 pitches. Even Goodrum’s homer may have been a bit fluky, as it had a 39 percent hit probability, according to Baseball Savant.
Shane Greene came in for the bottom of the ninth and did his job, setting the Yankees down in order. He has been reasonably effective in August, allowing three runs over 9.1 innings and converting six of seven save opportunities. One has to wonder, though, how long he can remain effective. Going back to June 26, he has a 6.4 percent swinging strike rate, even though he is inducing swings in the strike zone at a high rate (70.4 percent Z-Swing%). A 41.4 percent hard contact rate also does not bode well for a safe and productive closing experience.
The Indians’ closer situation continues to be a seesaw affair, and with Cody Allen having blown his last two save chances, it was Brad Hand who took care of the ninth inning on Thursday. It was a three true outcomes kind of inning against the Twins, as Hand gave up a Miguel Sano leadoff homer, walked Mitch Garver and got all three outs via the strikeout. Sano’s home run notwithstanding, it seems likely that Hand could get the bulk of the save chances going forward. While Allen has flailed, Hand had strung together eight straight scoreless performances prior to Thursday’s save.
Jeremy Jeffress has emerged as the Brewers’ primary closer, but after having thrown 39 pitches on Wednesday, Craig Counsell went with Josh Hader to close out a 2-1 win in the 11th inning against the Reds on Thursday. The lefty rebounded from having allowed four runs on Wednesday night by setting down the Reds in order.
Quick hits: Brandon Morrow (biceps) threw off flat ground on Wednesday. He is not expected back until the latter part of September, and it is not yet clear what his role will be when he returns…Having pitched in the Reds’ last two games, Raisel Iglesias did not appear in Thursday’s loss to the Brewers. Jared Hughes pitched a scoreless top of the ninth inning with a tie…Blake Parker gave up a two-run, ninth-inning homer to Tyler White in a non-save situation on Thursday night. The Angels still prevailed over the Astros, 5-2…After a difficult midseason stretch, Dan Winkler appears to be back in top form. He pitched 1.2 scoreless innings against the Cubs, extending his scoreless appearance streak to 13, covering 12.1 innings.
Al Melchior has been writing about Fantasy baseball and sim games since 2000, and his work has appeared at CBSSports.com, BaseballHQ, Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster and FanRagSports. He has also participated in Tout Wars' mixed auction league since 2013. You can follow Al on Twitter @almelchiorbb and find more of his work at almelchior.com.
I would say the Arizona thing could cost Boxberger some saves. If it’s a 3 run game and Chafin gets 1st out- then Boxberger comes in- that’s no longer a save situation.
Great point. I’d guess it’s no worse than a wash for Boxberger, though, since he’ll probably miss out on some tough LHBs.
I’ll take the blame for Betances last night. I drafted him and then dumped him after his early struggles. He then proceeded to reel off 3.5 months of being nearly unhittable. Picked him up last week and he does that last night.
So, sorry, my bad. . . . .
I thought only I had those powers.
Betances challenges hitters within the strike zone too much with the game on the line.
Victor Martinez was repeatedly challenged inside in his wheelhouse in pursuit of the almighty K, and Victor made him pay.
Same with Goodrum.
Nothing wrong with a groundout.
You can point to his record earlier in the season, but when Betances is closing, I dunno, maybe getting the save with 3 groundouts isn’t good enough.
It will be interesting to see whether or not the D-Backs would pull Boxberger for Chafin if the handedness of the batters were reversed, i.e. the first two batters of the inning are RH and the 3rd batter is LH. There’s not a lot of room for second guessing when you bring in the closer after your LOOGY (after all, he is still closing), but replacing your closer with your LOOGY opens up that door. It shouldn’t, but it does.
With the last out of the ballgame, the other guys may pinch hit with a RHH, so you lose your closer and your LOOGY. It’s gotta be a LHH that the other team wouldn’t pinch hit for, like Votto. I’d rather leave in Boxie and just pitch the LHH carefully esp. if 1B was open.
Jace Fry had the day off and gained some ground while riding the pine. It was a terrible day for the White Sox bullpen all around. 8 earned runs combined for Jeanmar Gomez (letting the Red Sox tie it) and Thyago Vieira (letting the Red Sox win it). Hector Santiago came in with 2 outs after Vieira got smoked in the 9th, just trying to get everyone back to the dugout, and immediately walked a guy (what a great way to make a manager hate you) before finally, mercifully, getting the last out of a lost cause.
It was interesting that 24 year old Ryan Burr threw a clean 8th in a tie game although with 0 Ks (173 IP in MILB with 208 K/72 BB, 2.02 ERA and 1.1 WHIP – dude should be fine).
My takeaways: It looks to me like Burr could be in the mix down the stretch, especially with Fry being a lefty. But it also seems like Fry’s job security was helped by the collective meltdown in his absence.
Breaking news: Ryan Madson traded to the Dodgers.
Ian Hamilton, a White Sox closer prospect, just got called up from Triple-A. He’s been nails in AA and AAA this year, sits 97-100 with a vicious slider in the high 80s. Had some issues with walks but seems to have exorcised those demons at the expense of some strikeouts at AAA, so probably more control than command right now. Interesting arm to keep an eye on; will probably be quite good soon, but not sure about immediately.