The Daily Grind: Park Factor Extremes

Tonight’s slate features a number of extreme venues for home runs – both for and against. Enjoy.

AGENDA

  1. TDG Invitational
  2. Weather Reports
  3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
  4. SaberSim Says…
  5. The Balls On Him

1.The Daily Grind Invitational

For just the second time this season, I won my own damned contest. Walker Buehler was the pick to click as his complete game, 16 strikeout masterpiece was worth 52.95 points. Christian Yelich (30 pts) and Joe Musgrove (30.75 pts) provided the rest of the juice. Leaderboard.

We have a tidy seven-game slate tonight on FantasyDraft.

If you have not signed up for FantasyDraft, please use this referral link for tracking purposes. If I understand properly, by using the referral, you will receive a 10 percent return on any rakes you pay.

2. Weather Reports

Cleveland has a 50 percent chance for rain throughout game time. Which would be a shame because there are numerous very interesting hitter matchups available in this game.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Lucas Giolito ($22,800) is the top-priced arm despite turning in a clunker last week against the Cubbies. He once again has a challenging matchup, this time in the Battle of the Sox: Fenway Edition. I figure he’s about $2,000 overpriced, although he also has perhaps the most upside in the slate. His opponent, Eduardo Rodriguez ($16,800) looks to be a massive bargain. He’s a safe source of a strikeout per inning and has comparable upside to Giolito for a long, prosperous outing. The downside is perhaps a little more downsided, but that’s more than covered by a $6,000 discount.

Clayton Kershaw ($20,600) looks like par value opposite a shockingly affordable Zack Greinke ($16,300). Yes, nobody wants to target the Dodgers offense. At the same time, Greinke very frequently throws at least seven innings. His style of pitching isn’t conducive to maximizing his DFS point totals, yet a mid-teens score against a tough offense is still a reasonable expectation.

Jon Gray ($18,800) is one of the more confusing options in the slate. He rarely returns value when he’s priced this highly. He also isn’t usually visiting the Smalls at Oracle Park. When Gray does go off, it’s often for a big score.

Tonight at Wrigley, the wind is blowing out to right field at nine mph. I would skip Julio Teheran ($16,000) if not outright stack against him. His 0.48 HR/9 against left-handed hitters is an outright fluke, one that’s liable to feel the heady thwock of regression this very evening. Jon Lester ($14,900) is a more viable mid-tier play for those hunting something unimpressive and unpopular.

Jake Arrieta ($14,600) is a bad idea at Citizen’s Bank Park. While he’s not unfamiliar with 15- and even 30-point performances, there’s an awful lot of risk he’ll zero out against a decent Mets offense. You can replicate this profile much more cheaply today. Steven Matz ($12,900) offers a similar profile and more strikeout potential for less cash money.

CC Sabathia ($13,900) is one of those cheaper alternatives to Arrieta. The Blue Jays offense is bad against left-handed pitchers. Sabathia figures to offer about a strikeout per inning over five or six frames. Barring catastrophe, he’ll also earn an easy win bonus.

Brad Keller ($11,700) is visiting a grounder-heavy Indians lineup. The only guys to watch out for are Jose Ramirez and recently promoted prospect Bobby Bradley. Otherwise, Keller has an obvious path to a in-play heavy seven-inning outing.

Favorite Plays: ERod, Gray, Matz, Sabathia

Stack Targets: Drew Pomeranz, Aaron Sanchez, Adam Plutko

4. SaberSim Says…

It seems the FantasyDraft specific results won’t be released until later in the day. On DK, ERod, Gray, Kershaw, Matz, and Greinke are the top-projected pitchers. I liked Matz’s matchup against the Phillies, but I had no idea he’d rank so highly. That said, nobody is projected for even 20 points tonight. Matz’s projection of 15.88 points usually ranks something like 10th in a slate this size. In any event, Matz, Pomeranz, ERod, Keller, and Sabathia are the best values.

On the hitting side of the equation, Ronald Acuna, Austin Riley, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, and Peter Alonso lead the way. I’m pretty sure SaberSim doesn’t know about the wind. Schwarber, Humberto Arteaga, Danny Jansen, Carlos Gonzalez, and Vladito are the bargainmen. Someday, the Sim will give up on Jansen.

5.The Balls On Him

Imagine if players with actual elite speed were this ballsy. Tatis is merely fast.

I bet Kolten Wong is a beast at Taps.

Tim Locastro is pretty stealthy good.

We hoped you liked reading The Daily Grind: Park Factor Extremes by Brad Johnson!

Please support FanGraphs by becoming a member. We publish thousands of articles a year, host multiple podcasts, and have an ever growing database of baseball stats.

FanGraphs does not have a paywall. With your membership, we can continue to offer the content you've come to rely on and add to our unique baseball coverage.

Support FanGraphs




You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam

newest oldest most voted
MisterJHuffman
Member
MisterJHuffman

FWIW, SaberSim does account for weather conditions.. Wind, temperature, etc.