The Daily Grind: Owens, Peavy, Gutierrez

Agenda

1. Worst Day
2. Daily DFS
3. GB / FB Splits
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets – Peavy, Wagner, Gutierrez, Reds
6. Factor Grid

1. Worst Day

I had my worst DFS performance of the season yesterday. I decided to go with two stacks by targeting Ryan Weber and Derek Holland. I used to live in Atlanta, and a friend was able to assuage my worries about a rain out. I knew the weather fade could pay off big. Well… … …

 

There’s my roster next to the winner. I took the wrong Angels first baseman. I also took the wrong third baseman from that game. I talked myself out of Welington Castillo. I even considered Elvis Andrus if I were to audible away from Nats hitters (though I was leaning towards Erick Aybar).

In the cold light of day (uh, or not, it’s still dark outside), I don’t see anything wrong with the process that created this terrible result. I made a few obvious selections that were likely to spike. They didn’t. I made a few sneaky punts with a high ceiling. Trea Turner batting second? Yes please. JR Murphy hitting sixth against a lefty? Sure! Hot handed C.J. Cron and David Freese? You betcha.

Sometimes, it’s just not your day.

2. Daily DFS – Owens

Yesterday’s Grind

All hands on deck, everybody is playing tonight. Precisely three teams are poised to leave everything on the field. That includes Dallas Keuchel versus the Diamondbacks, Ervin Santana against the Royals, and Jered Weaver opposite the Rangers. Of the trio, I could see Keuchel going the distance. The Twins and Angels may take an early trip to the bullpen.

Jake Arrieta is the top hurler of the evening, but I imagine he’ll be reined in tonight. He’ll be on normal rest for the NL Wild Card game. I expect maybe 90 to 100 pitches. Chris Sale should be unrestrained against the Tigers. If I were Mike Matheny, I would take it easy on Jaime Garcia. Matheny has never shown any desire to do so. Garcia could make for a sharp pick against the Braves.

Way down in bargain land, you’ll find Henry Owens with a $5,900 price tag on FanDuel. The Boston lefty is opposed by Josh Tomlin. He will eventually regress – just maybe not this season. After all, anything can happen in one game. At one point, I tried comparing Owens’ stuff to Cole Hamels. I now view him as the poor man’s version of Hamels. The repertoire is similar, it’s just that everything is a grade or two lower than Hamels. In any event, Owens is still capable of a solid performance against a thin Indians lineup.

Stack Targets: Kyle Kendrick, Keyvius Sampson, Casey Kelly, Aaron Harang, Ariel Pena, Aaron Brooks, Martin Perez, Justin Nicolino, Rubby de la Rosa, Weaver, Alfredo Simon

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

There aren’t too many options available today, and the list is thinner once I skim off the dross.

Rougned Odor, Will Venable v Jered Weaver
Ben Paulsen, Justin Morneau v Chris Heston
Chris Carter, Preston Tucker v Rubby de la Rosa
Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts, Brock Holt, David Ortiz v Josh Tomlin
Alex Rodriguez v Wei-Yin Chen

4. SaberSim Observations

Mr. Sale has a 63 percent chance to earn a win today according to SaberSim. I don’t think it’s quite that guaranteed, but it could be because Simon isn’t listed in the projections. My pick Owens is right in the middle of the pack which actually supports my selection. He’s one of 12 pitchers projected for between 10 and 12 points, but he’s tied for the fifth lowest price.

Texas remains a smart place to target offense. Both the Angels and Rangers are projected to mash tonight. With Weaver and Perez on the bump, I couldn’t agree more. Carl Crawford is listed in the top 10 with the assumption that he’ll bat leadoff against Casey Kelly. Crawford costs $2,400.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets – Peavy, Wagner, Gutierrez, Reds

Pitchers to Start: I assume if you’re looking for picks here, you have to use somebody. With the exception of Severino, I’m not a big fan of any waiver pitchers tomorrow. However, you could try Jake Peavy. He’s been hot of late. If we throw out his two April starts, he has a 3.21 ERA and 3.73 FIP in 98 innings. The Rockies offer an easy matchup with a good chance for a victory.

Also consider: Marco Estrada, Luis Severino, Erik Johnson, Kyle Hendricks, Roenis Elias

Pitchers to Exploit: Tyler Wagner isn’t a major league pitcher. He isn’t inducing whiffs. Over 7.2 innings, he has five walks and just two strikeouts. He’s allowed 15 hits and 10 runs. It’s a fantastic matchup for the powerful Cubbies. Theoretically, Chicago can still claim home field advantage in the Wild Card.

Also consider: Colby Lewis, Chris Rusin, Ubaldo Jimenez, Brandon Finnegan, Craig Breslow, Jeremy Hellickson, Sean Nolin, Robbie Erlin

Hitters (power): Franklin Gutierrez is destroying baseballs at an unprecedented rate (at least for him). With 15 home runs in 180 plate appearances, how could you pick anyone else? He’ll have the platoon advantage against Nolin.

Also consider: Howie Kendrick, Scott Van Slyke, Mark Canha, Chris Coghlan, Ryan Raburn, Mike Aviles, Richie Shaffer, Jonny Gomes

Hitters (speed): A.J. Burnett is the most exploitable pitcher. Lesser lights like Jason Bourgeois or Skip Schumaker could take a base. One of them will (bafflingly) bat lead off. Eugenio Suarez is less likely to run, but he has a higher offensive projection.

Also consider: Austin Jackson, Anthony Gose, Jordy Mercer, Ichiro Suzuki, Odubel Herrera, Kelby Tomlinson, Delino DeShields, Erick Aybar

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

You know what they say about October showers. They’re cold. Based on the current reports, the games in Baltimore and Philadelphia will be postponed. The Mets game is also likely to be cancelled. Atlanta could be rained out too.

The Link.

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