The Daily Grind: Overpriced 2: The Overpricening

Wither Christian Yelich…

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. Jump!

1.The Daily Grind Invitational

Johnson119 crushed the field, putting up 201.6 points. The next best roster managed a meager 148.35 points. The winning lineup feature a slew of low-owned players led by an Oakland stack of Matt Olson, Khris Davis, Marcus Semien, Matt Chapman, and Mark Canha. Congrats and Leaderboard.

We have a 14-game contest on FantasyDraft.

2. Weather Reports

New York might get some rain. The risk is relatively low, and it’s not even a part of the slate.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

If you read the headline – do you read the headlines? – then you probably already know the general theme of today. Pitchers are overpriced, led by Stephen Strasburg for $22,100. He’s visiting the homertastic Twins. Martin Perez ($14,500) isn’t just too pricey, he’s outright stackable.

Robbie Ray may be one of the few exceptions. The volatile southpaw ain’t cheap at $21,100, but it comes down to how you price that volatility. Because he’s one of the likeliest pitchers to lead the slate, he’s a solid GPP target opposite the Mets at CitiField. They’re not exactly stocked with lefty mashers aside from that one guy. You know the one. For an over-$20,000 pitcher, there’s considerable risk for a meltdown or less-than-five-inning outing. In fact, the Diamondbacks seem to be fighting for a stealthy bid at the second Wild Card slot by clamping down on their starter innings.

Alternatively, I legit like Steven Matz ($15,900) at this price. His stuff has ticked upwards in the second half of the season. The Diamondbacks feature a neutral offense.

Sonny Gray ($20,300) is par value in a visit to the Mariners. He has very consistently exceeded 20-point performances since late-June. It’s safe to say he’s “on.” You know what’s not “on?” The Mariners offense. A win bonus is likely opposite Marco Gonzales ($16,000) and friends.

Reynaldo Lopez ($18,500) is damned frustrating. He probably should cost about $14,500 – even opposite the Royals. Plausible outcomes range from around -1o to 40 points. His occasional gems are more than offset by frequent failures. For GPPs, he’s a slightly more affordable version of the Ray profile.

The FDraft team doesn’t like to admit that Chris Paddack ($19,500) exists. That’s ok, he’s hopelessly overpriced versus the Cubbies anyway. So is Cole Hamels ($18,000) opposite a sorta lefty-mashing Padres lineup. At least, they should mash lefties. As to whether the current offense does is… debatable.

In what world is Adam Plutko a $17,300 pitcher? Even against a Mike Trout-less Angels offense. And they might not be Trout-less tonight. Dillon Peters ($11,100) has some modest potential out of the bargain bin. I don’t see much hope for more than 15 points, and that may be more than offset by the numerous sub-10-point outcomes.

It’s hangover day for the Dodgers which means John Means ($16,900) might be sneaky playable. He’s hosting the Dodgers. Usually, I’d be 100 percent out on this one. Similarly, I’d often be in on Ross Stripling for $14,400 against a bad opponent, but this isn’t the day.

Pablo Lopez ($16,200) is a good $2,000 too expensive for what lines up as an otherwise decent matchup. Aside from Matz, Lopez is one of the better mid-tier targets if you find yourself holding sufficient cash. The Zach Davies ($12,700) probably won’t throw enough innings to return value.

Favorite Plays: Strasburg, Ray, Matz, Gray

Stack Targets: Perez, Glenn Sparkman, Mike Shawaryn et al, Antonio Senzatela, Dakota Hudson, Andrew Kittredge, Dario Agrazal, Peters, Brett Anderson, Ariel Jurado, Trent Thornton, Zach Eflin

I’m not exactly keen about these billion stacks days.

4. SaberSim Says…

Strasburg, Gray, Ray, Paddack, and Matz are the top-projected arms. Values include Sparkman, Agrazal, Strasburg, Peters, and Jose Urquidy. I like Urquidy in theory, I’m just not sure I’m comfortable paying $14,000 when he probably won’t cross the five inning threshold.

We have better options on the hitter side, partly thanks to Coors Field. Austin Meadows, Paul Goldschmidt, Tommy Pham, Charlie Blackmon, and Marcell Ozuna are the beast bats. The exploding kittens are Ryan McBroom (McBoom amirite?), Jaylin Davis, Isan Diaz, Luis Urias, and Ryan O’Hearn.

5. Jump! 

Jump around! Jump up and up and get down.

Vladito has ugly defensive metrics, but I’ve seen a lot of incredible throws from him. The, uh, “dive” in this one was probably unnecessary.

Khrash almost had a really huge day. Getting him back for the postseason would be a boon for the A’s.