The Daily Grind: Overpriced

Well, which is it? (the tweet embed doesn’t work for this one so just click the link)

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. The Well

1.The Daily Grind Invitational

It was a spicy contest last night full of massive – and popular – performance. Johnson119 managed to string together the most big players with a score of 195.25. Now imagine if he nabbed Pete Alonso instead of Christian Yelich. The 21st place score would have won last Friday. Congrats and Leaderboard.

We’re on FantasyDraft tonight for a full slate.

2. Weather Reports

Thumbs up.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Walker Buehler ($23,800) leads the way with a friendly little visit to Baltimore. He’s a little more volatile than a typical ace, blending sub-10 point performances with 50-point masterpieces. The Orioles are strikeout prone.

I like Zac Gallen as much or more than the next guy, but I just can’t quite find myself getting behind a $21,100 price tag against the Mets. I think this is a $18,000 matchup. I prefer the Zack Wheeler ($19,500) side of affairs although I think he should be priced around $18,500.

Lance Lynn has finally caught the inevitable case of pumpkinitis. With the way he’s pitched recently (i.e. just fine), there’s no way I’m touching him for $20,500 against the Rays. Maybe for $16,500. Ryan Yarbrough ($17,700) is no longer following an opener with any consistency which is a shame. He was a stud with that extra win bonus juice. Now he’s just another overpriced guy.

Yeesh. When are we going to get to a guy who is appropriately costed? Jose Berrios ($19,400) hosting Anibal Sanchez ($15,900)? Both overpriced. Tanner Roark  for $19,000? Good grief! He’s opposed by the Astros and an also overpriced Wade Miley ($17,700). Jose Quintana ($18,400) at Petco. Overpriced. Ronald Bolanos ($13,900) versus a deleted Cubs offense. Yep. Over… Priced!

In fact, let’s just skip a bunch of names to call out the ONE guy who is definitely a value. Chase Anderson isn’t a stud by any measure, but he also runs only $12,100 in a matchup against the lowly Marlins. There’s a good chance he’ll deliver a mid-teens point total. The Brewers are fighting for their lives so they’ll have no patience if he comes out flat.

There are other playable names lurking. Trevor Bauer ($18,000) hasn’t thrived since switching to the National League. We know he has latent talent – enough to dominate the Mariners in his return to DH-land. This seems like a lot to pay for a slumpy pitcher. I suspect if we go purely by projection (which doesn’t care if he’s cold), he’ll look like a value.

Max Fried ($17,300) is a hair above par value. On the plus side, he consistently delivers a strikeout per inning. The risks relate mostly to his run prevention which tends to come and go. He’s working at Citizen’s Bank Bandbox.

Johnny Cueto is back! I’m not even going to list his price (hint: it’s too high). Mitch Keller ($17,300) is also rather expensive. While he’s visiting Oracle Park and a bad Giants offense, he’s also only broken the 10-point threshold in three of eight starts.

If you feel stuck in the mid-tier due to bad values, Jakob Junis ($16,800 at White Sox) and Zach Plesac ($16,100 at Angels) look like the mid-tier picks to click. The White Sox teamwide impatience should help Junis post a palatable total. Plesac will enjoy facing a Trout-less Angels lineup. He’s struggled recently – mostly against top-tier offenses.

Favorite Plays:

Stack Targets: Ty Blach, Jason Vargas, Anderson, Michael Wacha, Jose Suarez, T.J. Zeuch, Ivan Nova, Chi Chi Gonzalez, Nathan Eovaldi, Justus Sheffield, Roark

4. SaberSim Says…

Buehler, Wheeler, Bauer, Keller, and Gallen are the top rate pitchers, but they’re pretty poorly projected. Nova, Elieser Hernandez, Anderson, Bauer, and Keller are the preferred bargains. Told’ja the Sim would like Bauer. On the hitting side, Charlie Blackmon, Paul Goldschmidt, Trevor Story, Marcell Ozuna, and Nolan Arenado are all at Coors Field. Ryan McBroom, Jaylin Davis, Danny Mendick, Nico Hoerner, and Abraham Toro make up a sizzling bargain crew.

5.The Well 

I don’t know why this was one of the top highlights yesterday.

I’ve been going to the Grisham well continuously this season – to little avail until last night.

We’ve all been here.