The Daily Grind: Overlay Alert

Yesterday’s contest had a six entry overlay. This means that your $2 entry had an expected value of $2.22. That’s free money – at least until the contest actually runs.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. First Take, Reconceptualized
3. Weather Reports
4. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
5. SaberSim Says…
6. Filling Contests

1. The Daily Grind Invitational

Ehalt brought the rain with a heroic Zach Eflin play. Increased velocity and slider usage led to nine strikeouts over 6.2 scoreless innings. Odubel Herrera, Nomar Mazara, Kris Bryant, Eugenio Suarez, and a couple others supplied home runs or comparable performance. It was a big day for Ehalt. He would have won the $5 GPP if he had participated. :sadface: Leaderboard.

Today’s no rake GPP is of the 60 entry variety on FantasyDraft. A reminder of a couple salient points. You may enter twice. Your entry is guaranteed to have neutral or better expected value. Come join us!

If you have not signed up for FantasyDraft, please use this referral link for tracking purposes. If I understand properly, by using the referral, you will receive a 10 percent return on any rakes you pay.

2. First Take, Reconceptualized

Yesterday, I asked readers to answer a couple poll questions related to my First Take videos. The results were as I suspected. Only five people copped to watching the videos and only five people (presumably the same five) liked them.

I think I work best when I’m being silly. So today’s First Take is short and sweet and analysis-lite. If you prefer it to the old format, please vote accordingly.

The following question is for readers of today’s The Daily Grind column. (Live in a couple minutes).

Did you like today’s First Take video more than previous iterations?

— Brad Johnson (@BaseballATeam) May 8, 2018

3. Weather Reports

The coast is clear. So is everywhere else. It’s not particularly windy anywhere except for Texas and Oakland.

4. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Main Slate: Corey Kluber is the runaway king of the slate. For $26,400, he will be challenging to roster in a visit to Miller Park. Then again, he’s usually the best bet for a complete game and/or double digit strikeouts. That’s true today too.

Luis Severino is the fourth most expensive pitcher at only $19,500. Given his talent level, this feels like a massive bargain. Even though the Red Sox have a fierce offense, Severino regularly deals with tough opponents. He recently posted 45.65 points versus the Astros. Anybody who can dominate the ‘Stros can dominate the Red Sox. That’s the transitive property in action.

Lance McCullers ($22,300) feels a tad pricey for his typically short outings. The Athletics offense is surprisingly potent, although they’re not unfamiliar with strikeouts. The other expensive pitcher, James Paxton, feels appropriately priced at $21,600 for his visit to Toronto. It’s a top heavy lineup. Or more accurately, it’s a collection of guys surrounding Josh Donaldson.

The next tier down offers options aplenty. Aaron Nola ($19,300), Sean Manaea ($18,700), Blake Snell ($17,100), Sean Newcomb ($16,000), Zack Godley ($15,800), and Dylan Bundy ($15,400) are all usable. Nola is at home versus a limp Giants offense. Manaea is tasked with conquering the Astros. Woof. Newcomb is visiting Snell in what could be a pitchers’ duel or a complete slopfest. There will be strikeouts. Godley is making start number four versus the Dodgers. The hell? Bundy is hosting the terribad Royals.

Potential bargain plays include. Uh. On second thought, maybe not. If you’re trying to be a hero, Mike Minor is perfectly fine for $12,900. Luis Castillo ($13,100) could finally combine strikeouts with run prevention. Wade Miley ($11,300), Danny Duffy ($10,800), Marcus Stroman ($12,000) and Jeremy Hellickson ($11,700) may be better than their price. I’m not keen to use them. Jose Urena ($9,000) is a random number generator.

Stack Targets: Lucas Giolito, Clayton Richard, Jen-Ho Tseng, Jason Vargas, Urena, Mike Fiers, Andrew Heaney, Jon Gray, Derek Holland, Duffy, Miley, Stroman, Drew Pomeranz, Castillo

You may notice an overlap between my stack targets and potential bargain plays. C’est la vie.

5. SaberSim Says…

Kluber, Rich Hill, Nola, Severino, and McCullers are preferred by our machine friend. Hill and a bunch of scrubs are the value plays. I worry about a shorting outing for Hill. Bats include Mike Trout (at Coors!), Nolan Arenado, Rhys Hoskins, Charlie Blackmon, and Joey Gallo. Value fans may prefer Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce, Adam Frazier, and/or Rajai Davis.

6. Filling Contests

The following is a public service announcement of sorts. After quickly filling the first no rake GPP on FantasyDraft last Friday, the decision makers over there agreed to bump up the contest size. A larger no rake GPP can only be a good thing. Unfortunately, since we failed to fill yesterday’s partial slate, larger contests have been put on hold. Going forward, expect smaller contests for days with smaller slates.

Also, why is Matt Adams a DFS hero? Presumably because pitchers keep hanging breaking balls…