The Daily Grind: Overlay Alert

Yesterday was our first sizable overlay since our over-sized Opening Day contest. An overlay is when the platform (FantasyDraft) is paying out more money than they’re receiving. For instance, last night, they paid out $104 on $88 of entries. That means each entry had an expected value of $2.36.

Thursdays, due to the thin slate, tend to feature the largest overlays. Therefore, you should participate in the Invitational tonight.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. Special

1.The Daily Grind Invitational

Congrats to mrschaef. He combined Justin Verlander, Patrick Corbin, and an unexpectedly productive Rangers stack. Leaderboard.

ALERT! FantasyDraft is starting our contest (<—-that’s the link) at 6:10pm ET. Most sites are using 6:40pm ET as their start time. By moving up a half hour, we get an extra game to consider.

If you have not signed up for FantasyDraft, please use this referral link for tracking purposes. If I understand properly, by using the referral, you will receive a 10 percent return on any rakes you pay.

2. Weather Reports

Chicago might get some sprinkles. Where I grew up, they’d insist they’re called jimmies.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

The earlier start time means we get two aces to consider. The priciest is Trevor Bauer ($21,200). He’s at home against the woeful Orioles. I don’t think there’s any need for analysis, this is a steal!

Luis Castillo ($20,300) is a wonderful consolation prize, although you’ll have to bet on him navigating the Cubs lineup at homer friendly Great American Ballpark. Without the Cleveland game in this slate, Castillo would have been a chalk monster. Now I’m hesitant to pull the trigger when I know Bauer’s just another $900. Jose Quintana ($17,900) is a playable and probably unpopular alternative. He’s a tad pricey for a mid-tier guy, but only by a few hundred bucks.

Trevor Williams‘ ($15,800) visit to Eric Lauer ($13,700) figures to dominate the second pitcher slot. So most Plan A’s will be some version of Bauer/Castillo and Williams/Lauer (some will opt for Bauer and Castillo plus no offense). Williams is a consistent play for six or more innings and around five strikeouts. More often than not, it’s a high floor, low ceiling profile. Lauer figures to be one of the best values in the contest. The Pirates are tied for the league-worst offense against left-handed pitchers (small sample warning).

If you want to add volatility to Williams, try Marcus Stroman ($15,800) for the same price. There’s a lot more foreseeable upside and downside here. On the plus side, the path to victory is clearer versus Dylan Covey. Honestly though, I’m tempted to strain my credibility by using Covey ($12,300) in his rematch against the Blue Jays. His usually fine command was completely absent last week.

Julio Teheran ($15,500) is another alternative to Williams. He has a tricksy matchup against the Cardinals. Teheran’s risk profile is somewhere between steady Williams and volatile Stroman. He probably has the same ceiling as Stroman but with a slightly higher floor.

Favorite Plays: Bauer, Castillo, Lauer

Stack Targets: Lauer, Dan Straily, Covey, Erik Swanson, Michael Pineda, Adam Wainwright, Stroman

4. SaberSim Says…

The Sim leaves out the Orioles-Indians game. Let’s assume Bauer is the top projected pitcher followed by Castillo, Williams, Quintana, and Stroman. Values are Williams, Castillo, Lauer, Stroman, and Teheran. Presumably Bauer would rank within the top three.

I’m not going to guess where Indians hitters belong. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Ronald Acuna, Freddie Freeman, Matt Carpenter, and Paul Goldschmidt are the top projected bats. Vladito, Kyle Schwarber, Danny Jansen, Austin Riley, and Teoscar Hernandez are the chieves of valueland. (yes, that’s the correct pluralization of “chief”)

5.Special

Bruce Willie Style

Can we add this to Christin Stewart’s home run total. I keep tell everybody he’s going to hit home runs. I like how they actually cut to an along-the-wall view. A lot of so-called “stolen” home runs were never going to leave the yard.

This is special.