The Daily Grind: Ottoneu Prospects, Severino, Wood, Moore

Agenda

1. Ottoneu Prospect Snatching
2. Daily DFS
3. GB / FB Splits
4. SaberSim Hi/Lo
5. Tomorrow’s Targets – Tillman, Moore, Goins, Victorino
6. Factor Grid

1. Ottoneu Prospect Snatching

It’s time to turn half an eye to the future in keeper formats (or both eyes if you’re out of contention). For ottoneu owners, that means finding a couple cheap, quality prospects to carry into the offseason. You never know when finding Steven Souza now will later land you Mike Trout.

There are two ways to go about targeting prospects in ottoneu – individually and in bulk. For those of you who aren’t familiar with the mechanics of ottoneu, in order to roster a player, one must nominate him for a two-day auction. The highest bidder wins the auction. Minor league players can be kept for previous price plus $1. Major league players are bumped up $2 per offseason.

For any prospect, it obviously behooves you to win with a $1 bid. That’s where the volume driven approach can be handy. Prospects are like bonds or stocks. They’re assets. We get hung up on the individuals, but we can easily pick a half dozen from the same asset class and be happy with whoever falls to us. If you happen to win too many prospects, you can always cut the dross.

I target individuals when they’re within a half season of the majors and/or have a high ceiling. That’s why I bid for A.J. Reed, a 22-year-old first base prospect who hit 34 home runs this season and should reach the majors by the end of 2016. Reed profiles as a three true outcomes slugger, and those tend to score well in our FanGraphs Points setting.

Programming Note: It looks like the SaberSim projections misfired today both here and on their home site. I assume they’ll fix that later in the day.

2. Daily DFS – Severino, Wood

Yesterday’s Grind

Everything is late today. Jake rrieta, Chris Archer, David Price, and Dallas Keuchel are the headline hurlers tonight. Keuchel is the only one working in a hitter’s park. They all cost $11,400 or more and figure to be worth every penny.

Sliding down a tier reveals the depth of pitching today. Hisashi Iwakuma, Gio Gonzalez, Danny Salazar, Jaime Garcia, and Bartolo Colon all possess a high ceiling and/or a great matchup. Luis Severino may be my favorite of the group, and he’s the cheapest at $8,300. The Rays don’t hit right-handed pitchers. He’ll have to outduel Archer, but it’s not an impossible task. He should manage somewhere between 10 and 18 points.

Alex Wood is the latest left-handed Dodger to face the Rockies. Readers of the past couple days will recall that the Rockies have the worst offense against lefties AND on the road. He shouldn’t be too popular tonight due to the wealth of options and his own personal inconsistency.

Stack Targets: Henry Owens, Mike Wright, Alec Asher, Adam Conley, Martin Perez, Cody Martin, Daniel Norris, Ervin Santana, Jered Weaver, Jorge de la Rosa, Michael Lorenzen

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

Jeff’s picks filtered into my picks:

Carlos Santana, Jose Ramirez, Chris Johnson v Danny Duffy
Seth Smith, Kyle Seager v Jered Weaver
Matt Duffy, Alejandro De Aza, Buster Posey v Michael Lorenzen
Mike Napoli v Dallas Keuchel
Yunel Escobar v Adam Morgan
Salvador Perez v Danny Salazar
Brayan Pena, Joey Votto v Jake Peavy
Justin Upton v Robbie Ray

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Tillman, Moore, Goins, Victorino

Pitchers to Start: Chris Tillman is 33 percent owned these days. His lack of success is a big reason the O’s are out of the pennant race. He’s still capable of having a good day now and then. With a matchup against the lowly Rays offense, it could be one of the good days. Or may he continues to vomit runs. He’s allowed 31 runs, 44 hits, 11 walks, and eight home runs over his last seven starts (35 innings).

Also consider: Kyle Hendricks, Charlie Morton, Marco Estrada, Lance McCullers

Pitchers to Exploit: Let’s stick to Tropicana Field. I saw Matt Moore’s final start before returning to the majors and came away unimpressed. He’s since allowed 10 run (eight earned), 12 hits, three walks, and four home runs in 9.2 innings. Moore can benefit from effective wildness on his good days. He’s not a lock to struggle. The main issue is that he isn’t commanding anything, especially offspeed stuff. That lets hitters sit on -and hammer – his fastball.

Also consider: Sean Nolin, Jarred Cosart, Tanner Roark, Matt Wisler, Colby Lewis

Hitters (power): Ryan Goins doesn’t have real power, but I do think he’ll reach base multiple times against Wisler. If he does, he should also score a couple times.

Also consider: C.J. Cron, Trevor Plouffe, Jonathan Schoop, Clint Robinson, Mark Canha, Chris Coghlan

Hitters (speed): The Angels acquired Shane Victorino to start against left-handed pitchers. Tommy Milone fits the bill. Victorino is hitting .244/.333/.333 against southpaws with four of his six stolen bases. He’s a pump and dump pick.

Also consider: Jace Peterson, Kevin Pillar, Ichiro Suzuki, Danny Espinosa

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

It might rain in San Francisco tonight. Weird.

The Link.

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