- Analysis of a NC Men’s League
- Daily DFS – Danks, Norris
- Tomorrow’s Targets – Williams, Norris, Alonso, Fuld
- Factor Grid
1. Analysis of a NC Men’s League
Today you’ll find a somewhat hastily compiled Daily Grind. Last night was the third game of my season, and I was up way past my bedtime as a result. The outcome of the game was disfavorable to my team. We lost 12-6, but all six of our runs came in the eighth and ninth innings.
Individually, I contributed six FanDuel points. I pitched a clean, three batter inning using my signature mix of three fastballs thrown from two extreme arm angles (one point). I also singled and walked twice with a run and RBI (five points). Of course, the Vegas over/under was 12.5 runs, so a six point day is merely adequate.
Scouting reports: To succeed as a pitcher in the NC MSBL, one need only to locate some mediocre offerings. In particular, I find inside cutters – regardless of batter handedness – are effective at inducing easy infield outs. The “dry” spitball (also known as a no-seam fastball), is effective when you’re infielders toss you a dew-soaked baseball. The dry spitball works best when it is actually a wet spitball. Fancy that.
It’s not unreasonable to expect a .400 BABIP from a good hitter. There are also a number of errors committed. A ball in play tends to come with a 40-50% chance to reach base. Even infield flies aren’t automatic outs. Thus, the name of the game is to put balls in play. My team is…uh…working on that. I also contributed to the anti-effort with my usual one strikeout.
2. Daily DFS – Danks, Norris
First, a procedural note. I know the FB/GB splits are very popular. I’m a big fan myself. However, I’m not the one who does the data extraction – that’s Jeff Zimmerman. I can’t give him grief over not contributing to my column if he wants an off day. Meanwhile, I’m working on getting the tools necessary to run the data myself (presently waiting for database access). Until then, expect Jeff to take a few well-deserved off days.
Thankfully, there is an A-plus target in the form of John Danks at U.S. Cellular Field. The Chicago game is likely to get a late start. The Royals have a few right-handed hitters with an attractive matchup, led by Lorenzo Cain.
Late: I’m closely watching Daniel Norris this season. Through three starts, he’s flashed some positives. However, a 6.08 ERA and terrible outcomes from his fastballs are of concern. Norris mixes five pitches, and it’s too soon to grade them based on PITCHf/x data. The slider and change look like reliable weapons while the curve has been iffy. His fastball and sinker are the real problems.
Norris has the ability to strikeout about a batter per inning. What he’s shown during regular season action doesn’t support that assertion. His minor league and spring numbers hint at better things to come. The fly ball pitcher will face the Rays at Tropicana Field. It’s too bad he can’t always pitch at Tropicana.
3. Tomorrow’s Targets – Williams, Norris, Alonso, Fuld
Pitchers to Start: It’s strangely difficult to find viable starters on the wire this year. Guys I would usually consider to be prime streaming candidates like Nathan Eovaldi are owned in the majority of leagues. We have to work with leftovers like Jerome Williams.
The Phillies hurler is up against an anemic Braves offense. Philadelphia is opposed by execrable righty Trevor Cahill. If either team had an offense, this could be a high scoring game.
Pitchers to Exploit: Bud Norris has a 17.42 ERA in three starts. He’ll pitch against the high octane Red Sox. In the early going, Norris is struggling with his command and control. The result is an elevated walk rate, BABIP, and home run rate. He’s also stranded just 22.5 percent of base runners.
Norris’ ERA should improve tomorrow. If it doesn’t, look for Kevin Gausman to take his place in the rotation.
Hitters (power): Padres first baseman Yonder Alonso is hitting .379/.471/.466. A .429 BABIP and 14.3 percent walk rate will do that. Alonso doesn’t offer much thump, but he can hit for a reliably high average. The new look Padres offense should give him some base runners to drive home.
Hitters (speed): Sam Fuld is simply a streaky, high contact guy who can hit for a solid average and steal some bases. He’s fantasy relevant because he bats leadoff against right-handed pitchers. His opponent – Asher Wojciechowski – is thoroughly unimpressive.
4. The Factor Grid
The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.
The Cubs-Reds game looks like a rain out. Moisture could interfere with games at Coors Field, U.S. Cellular, and Petco Park, but a postponement looks unlikely.
The Link. Usually this would be a very hitter friendly day. Cool weather is putting a damper on most of the best hitting stadiums.
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